EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA (15E)

[HURAKAN]

EP, 15, 2009090718, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1267W, 45, 1000, TS

¡Hola Linda!

[RattleMan]

Is that an EYE that I see?

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 072034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 PM PDT MON SEP 07 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING...WITH ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAVING IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED BAND HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...RECENTLY WRAPPING
AROUND WHAT COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARM SPOT COINCIDENT WITH
THE CENTER. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM
TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION
AND HIGHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM LINDA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO
50 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF
A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER SLOW 280/07.
LINDA IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N112W. THE CYCLONE COULD SLOW EVEN
FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENSION OF A TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THEREAFTER...AS
THE WEAKNESS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED...LINDA SHOULD BE STEERED MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
RELIES MORE HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM...DISCOUNTING
THE UKMET AND GFDL...WHICH ALMOST IMMEDIATELY FORECAST A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE AROUND 10 KT OF WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS LINDA MOVES OVER
MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS SHOULD
CAUSE LINDA TO BEGIN WEAKENING...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE
A REMNANT LOW BY 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS
AND THE MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 15.5N 127.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 15.6N 127.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 17.2N 130.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, I'd say 50-55 kt personally too.

[brunota2003]

I'm still trying to find this eye? I see what appears to be an outflow boundary pushing out from the eastern side (which formed after those thunderstorms collapsed near the center) and what appears to be dry slotting from possibly that dry air to the south/southeastern side of the system being ingested, but certainly no eye...not even a ragged eye.


I am not surprised that the winds were increased to 45 knots, though...I have been believing those sat estimates have been under-doing this system (mostly because of the lack of deep convection), whereas the Quikscat was clearly showing barbs of 40 knots yesterday evening (3 or 4 uncontaminated ones too!). I believed the system had winds of at least 35 knots since last night (compromise of the T numbers of 2.0, or 30 knots, and the Quikscat showing 40 knot winds).

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Mantained at 50kts.

EP, 15, 2009090800, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1275W, 50, 997, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

643
WTPZ35 KNHC 080234
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 PM PDT MON SEP 07 2009

...LINDA SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST OR ABOUT
1280 MILES...2060 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

LINDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND LINDA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.3N 127.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


298
WTPZ45 KNHC 080235
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 PM PDT MON SEP 07 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LINDA HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED...AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER...AN 1841 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CYCLONE INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 45 KT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE 50 KT WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 50 KT.

A 2119 UTC TRMM AND A 2217 UTC AMSU PASS WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THOSE TIMES. HOWEVER...THE RECENT CLOUD
MOTIONS HAVE NOT MATCHED THE EXTRAPOLATED MOTION...AND THIS COULD
BE A SIGNAL THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE BECOMING A
LITTLE DISPLACED FROM EACH OTHER. THE INITIAL POSITION...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION OF 275/6...ARE THEREFORE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MAINTAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND TURN LINDA TOWARD THE NORTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
TVCN...AND ENDS UP NEAR THE BAM SHALLOW MODEL BY DAY 5 WHEN LINDA
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LINDA IS INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION...AND
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME ARC CLOUDS TO ITS SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE
CANOPY THAT SHOULD BE MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE STORM.
ALL THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING WILL
BE LIMITED. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FOLLOW THIS TREND
AND SHOW LINDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...OR JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOWER STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...BUT STILL SHOWS LINDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND
48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 15.3N 127.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 15.4N 128.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 15.7N 129.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 16.3N 129.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 17.3N 130.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 132.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 133.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Kingarabian]

Looks okay. But really tired.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE APPEARANCE OF LINDA
TYPIFIES THAT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING WESTERLY SHEAR. DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER
THIS EVENING...BUT RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A RESURGENCE OF
CONVECTION IN A MORE SYMMETRIC SHAPE AROUND THE CENTER. OVERALL...
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN
SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE AT 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB AND ARE USED AS A BASIS TO MAINTAIN
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT THIS ADVISORY.

AN 0413 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. THAT PASS
ALONG WITH RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF
265/07. LINDA REMAINS IN A WEAK-STEERING ENVIRONMENT...DOMINATED BY
WEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 130W. AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...LINDA SHOULD
TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THEREAFTER...
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL/ECMWF INDICATING
EITHER A WEAKER RIDGE/MORE ROBUST TROUGH OR A STRONGER LINDA...AND
THEREFORE TURN LINDA MORE NORTHWARD EARLIER. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/
CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER BY SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND STRONGER
RIDGING...WHICH LEADS TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO LEFT DUE TO PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND THEN
TO THE RIGHT LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH LINDA WAS DEVELOPING AT A MORE RAPID PACE EARLIER...THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF SEVERAL FACTORS. THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS NEGATIVE INFLUENCES ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AWAY FROM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF
PREDICTIONS AND MORE CLOSELY MATCHING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 15.1N 128.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 15.2N 128.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 15.9N 129.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 16.7N 130.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 17.8N 130.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 24.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

402
WTPZ45 KNHC 081432
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH DUE SHEAR. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS...AND THIS ESTIMATE
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND STAYS AWAY FROM THE GFDL/HWRF
MODEL PAIR THAT FORECAST LINDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

LINDA HAS BEEN MEANDERING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT
STEERING CURRENTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO
BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SOON AND THEN NORTHWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS LINDA OR ITS
REMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
BEGIN TO RECURVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 15.2N 128.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 15.4N 128.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 25.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Buenos días Linda

[HURAKAN]

Weird-looking eye feature.

[Macrocane]

Linda no es tan linda(Linda is not that cute)

[HURAKAN]

578
WTPZ35 KNHC 082032
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009

...LINDA MOVING VERY LITTLE...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1310 MILES...2105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

LINDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.5N 128.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

482
WTPZ45 KNHC 082035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A FEW SPOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT THE SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED OVER
THE SYSTEM HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED AND CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MORE SYMMETRIC. BASED ON T-NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS A FEW HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO
A SMALL AREA ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. IF FACT...THE
SHIPS MODEL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SOON AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR FORECAST LINDA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE.

LINDA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...PERHAPS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT
2 KNOTS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS. BEYOND THREE DAYS...LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO RECURVE WHILE
MOVING LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE
WHICH APPEARS TO BE RELIABLE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW FROM THE MID LEVEL AND
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND KEEP A WEAK LOW MEANDERING IN THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.

THE WIND RADII WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.5N 128.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.7N 128.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 17.8N 130.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 24.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1800Z 25.0N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

346
WTPZ25 KNHC 090235
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 128.4W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 135SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 128.4W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 128.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.5N 130.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 130.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 132.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 132.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 128.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


600
WTPZ45 KNHC 090243
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009

THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF LINDA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN INCREASE IN BANDING NEAR THE CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO
55 KT...AND THERE ARE SEVERAL AMSU ESTIMATES OF 55-65 KT. THUS...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS
FAIR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SLOW AT 330/2. LINDA IS SOUTH OF A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N127W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 22N140W.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF LINDA AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48-72 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...
THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS TO WHERE THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
LINDA WILL GO AS THE CYCLONE SHEARS APART OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE HWRF...GFS...AND THE BAM MODELS FORECAST LINDA
TO TURN NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND
THE CANADIAN CALL FOR A WESTWARD TURN. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR
A NORTHWARD TURN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HWRF...BUT AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE OVERALL
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HR.

LINDA IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR
JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND SOME OF THIS AIR MAY BE ENTRAINING
INTO THE CIRCULATION. THIS COULD BE SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT IN AN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO
FORECAST LINDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HR...AND THE OTHER
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME STRENGTHENING. BASED ON THIS...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST
12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS AND
INCREASING SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. LINDA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HR...AND TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 15.6N 128.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.2N 129.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 130.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.8N 130.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.0N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090834
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LINDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN T3.5 OR 55 KT...WHICH IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LINDA
REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT QUITE
EXPANSIVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER.

DESPITE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE PREDICTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT IS
BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH BRING THE
CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
THEREAFTER...LINDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AS IT
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A MORE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS LINDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW LINDA TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS
TURNING LINDA WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5 KEEPS LINDA ON A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND BAMS
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

IT SEEMS THAT NINES MUST BE WILD THIS MORNING...AS THIS HAPPENS TO
BE THE 9TH ADVISORY ON LINDA AT 0900 UTC ON 9/9/09.

LOL! Nhc has some humor .

[brunota2003]

Is that a banding type eye trying to pop out on infrared, or is that dry air? I looked at the microwave images on NRL, but the most recent images are from 8 hours ago...

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z

EP, 15, 2009090912, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1285W, 55, 994, TS

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot less organized

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[CrazyC83]

Still has a partial eyewall though.