ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[ozonepete]

This system has been analized a ton by members,in comparison,not a lot from the pro mets.Aric and ozonepete haved done a great job of pinpointing all the factors in favor and against for the system to redevelop or not since the last advisory on Fred was written and I say to them that they have a great future in the camp of meteorlogy.Having said the above,I see the final epilog to the final chapter of this very looong journey that started on September 6.

Thanks, cycloneye, and yeah lol, it's onshore in the Carolinas on Wednesday, no matter what form it's in.

[Blown Away]

Look at the WV loop and you can see the ridge starting to push ex Fred WSW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Game Set Match.........adios mr. long tracking swirl.....

Man your about indecisive as your living arrangements..LOL

[wxman57]

Convection continues to diminish and move farther away from any "low" pressure area tonight. Shear is still present, and very dry air is moving in from the north and east (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html). Doesn't warrant a mention in the tropical outlook. It's gone.

[ozonepete]

Convection continues to diminish and move farther away from any "low" pressure area tonight. Shear is still present, and very dry air is moving in from the north and east (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html). Doesn't warrant a mention in the tropical outlook. It's gone.

Are we looking at the same CIMSS loop? That link you gave us shows dry air moving in towards the Carolinas at the beginning and then VERY moist air moving in at the end at 2009-09-22 0100. I'm confused as to why you said that?!?

But hey, loved that loop!

[LarryWx]

Game Set Match.........adios mr. long tracking swirl.....

Delta,
Going with the tennis theme, "you cannot be serious"!!

Seriously, this is an interesting time to suddenly call it quits with Fred after being so gung ho. Of course, you may end up being right. However, I can't help but wonder if you are just trying some kind of reverse psychology and really are hoping you're going to be wrong?

Regardless of what happens from this point, this has been one of the more fascinating tropical systems to follow. To this point, it has been a blast.

[LarryWx]

Umm, folks, am I seeing things or is Fred actually now wrapping convection around its midlevel center??

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Any thoughts?

[brunota2003]

Umm, folks, am I seeing things or is Fred actually now wrapping convection around its midlevel center??

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Any thoughts?

I see a still image?

[LarryWx]

[I see a still image?

Try this for animation and see what you think.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

[LarryWx]

Another animation link:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

EDIT: Dang, I hate the eclipse. I wish it didn't exist! Time for some shut-eye. Good night.

[MGC]

Nice little burst of convection. Seems Fred don't want to give it up....MGC

[jlauderdal]

my first, only and last post about this system. NEXT!

Quoted for truth.

did you see the picture of the crow I posted this last weekend, its there someplace probably Saturday

[IvanSurvivor]

Is the convection/exfred moving SW now?

[IvanSurvivor]

Maybe with all our free time here one of the smart guys/girls could start a thread for learning about weather...tropical, severe, winter, etc. Maybe there already is one and I just haven't paid attention.
Instead of some of us looking at blobs going oooo oooo is it doing ....., maybe we could learn what we are actually looking at. Starting from the very basic...just a thought
Meteorology 101!

[IvanSurvivor]

Smart weather people: What's this?

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NE TX SHOULD ARRIVE AT TX AND LA
COASTS AROUND SUNSET TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PENETRATION OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF
WATERS BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS. COLD FRONT SEEMS TO REACH PSN
FROM MS DELTA TO 26N94W TO 21N87W WHERE IT STALLS AND MEANDERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SINCE FRONT IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS W OF FRONT TO
N AT 15-20 KT WED...BUT EXPECT THE SHORT DURATION TO MAX SEAS AT
6 FT DESPITE CAA OVER WARM SST. MODELS HAVE BACKED ON AMPLITUDE
OF ELY WAVE MOVING THROUGH FL STRAITS TONIGHT. IN FACT UPPER
FEATURES HAVE REVERSED OVER THE E GULF PAST 24 HOURS...THE UPPER
RIDGE HAS RETRACTED WESTWARD ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING
SE TO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS. THUS...THE ELY WAVE IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE N OF CUBA AND IS QUITE BROAD FROM E-W OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. WILL MOVE AN INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS TONIGHT...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND OVER THE S
CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN AREA THU...AND THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FRI AND SAT WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. STILL EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
INCREASE THE NE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS TO 15-20 KT WED AND
15 KT THU AND A 10-15 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
FRI-SAT.

[wxman57]

Convection continues to diminish and move farther away from any "low" pressure area tonight. Shear is still present, and very dry air is moving in from the north and east (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html). Doesn't warrant a mention in the tropical outlook. It's gone.

Are we looking at the same CIMSS loop? That link you gave us shows dry air moving in towards the Carolinas at the beginning and then VERY moist air moving in at the end at 2009-09-22 0100. I'm confused as to why you said that?!?

But hey, loved that loop!

Yep, we were looking at the same loop. What you're seeing is fred's moisture moving westward toward the coast closely followed by quite a bit of dry air. There's little left of Fred now, just isolated storms well east of a wave axis. No evidence of any LLC on quite a few surface obs near Fred today. And I wouldn't put too much stock in any "L" placed on an HPC chart. It may be incorrect to assume that the "L" is placed there because the analyst can identify a closed LLC. Many times, meteorologists will put an "L" on a map just because we're talking about a feature, and the general public can understand a low center better than low-level vorticity.

Here's a morning plot with the wave axis identified using surface obs:

[IvanSurvivor]

SW N ATLC...
ALOFT...A COMPLICATED PATTERN OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE N
PORTION AND SEVERAL MID TO UPPER CYCLONES ELSEWHERE. STILL
EXPECTING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE BAHAMAS TO MOVE NW
REACHING THE GA/SC COAST WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE N OF CUBA THIS MORNING...BUT DO
SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP MOVING W THROUGH THE CAY SAL BANK
ATTM...SO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL REMNANTS OF THE ELY WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHANNEL AND FL STRAITS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AS THESE TROUGHS MOVE W OF 80W WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W. BETWEEN 65W AND 55W...THE REMNANTS OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW NEAR CURRENTLY NEAR 15N48W IS EXPECTED TO
STEER INITIALLY NW AND LATER N AND NNE ALONG 55W AND WEAKEN TO A
NE-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NW TO NEAR 23N55W THU.
THE GRADIENT N OF THIS LOW HAS A BELT OF ELY 20-25 KT WINDS FROM
18N-26N E OF 55W. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NE AND DIMINISH AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY NW
APPROACHING 55W.

[artist]

[storms NC]

I only have a few mins. Hubby called last night and the news talked about a stall might happen. Has any one heard this one? Got to go Bye. Be in NC at 4 pm

[wxman57]

I only have a few mins. Hubby called last night and the news talked about a stall might happen. Has any one heard this one? Got to go Bye. Be in NC at 4 pm

No stalling. Fred's remnant storms move into FL/GA tomorrow. Just a bit more rain for the southeast, that's it.