WPAC: TROPICAL STORM MUJIGAE (14W/MARING)

[beaufort12]

Looks like something for southern China to keep an eye on.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

[Chacor]

Not very organised; partially-exposed centre.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 17N 119E ALMOST STATIONARY.



Two depressions in the South China Sea

[Chacor]

The one on the left near Vietnam would be 95W.

[StormingB81]

Don't worry chacor I am not going to say it is coming here I learned my lesson and going to look more at the models and not just one agency..lol

[Typhoon Hunter]

This thing is ramping up quickly and now a warned TD from JMA.

JTWC have obviously been concentrating more on the good looking bikini girls on Waikiki rather than this storm since they went straight from FAIR to issuing warning #1.

Most agencies/models taking this to Hainan/western Guangdong, not Okinawa

[StormingB81]

Watch out Typhoon. I said that in the post above with the not comming to okinawa and I got a warning...lol,,hopefully with this comment I dont get a suspension.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 118.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 118.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.6N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.8N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.2N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.6N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.9N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.5N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 118.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245
NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATEL-
LITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS FORMING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE ALBEIT
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, NEARBY SHIP OBSERVA-
TIONS, AND FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING UNFLAGGED 25-30 KNOT
WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. TD 14W IS INITIALLY BEING STEERED NORTHWEST-
WARD BY AN EXTENSION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
BY TAU 24, A DEEPER SECONDARY RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR SHANGHAI WILL
ASSUME STEERING OF THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO WEAK TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS ALONG WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (IN
EXCESS OF 28C) THEN WEAKEN BACK TO A TD AFTER TAU 72 WHEN IT
ENCOUNTERS THE LAND MASS OF HAINAN ISLAND AND ZHANJIANG PENINSULA.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK FORECAST WITH GFDN AND NOGAPS AS RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS,
RESPECTIVELY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z,
100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.8N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.4N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.8N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.1N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.7N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.6N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 116.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Not looking too impressive

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.1N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.2N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.3N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.6N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.3N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 115.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 14W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 091730Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND A
091817Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
DATA AND A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF T=1.5 FROM PGTW. MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS INTRODUCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR NOTED IN RECENT
SOUNDINGS FROM REPORTING STATIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
PREVENT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER LAND AROUND TAU 96. THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EQUATORWARD AND TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED BASED ON CURRENT PROGNOSIS OF THE STEERING FLOW PATTERN
AND A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AND FASTER THAN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND
102100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 368
WTPQ21 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 18.7N 115.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 19.2N 113.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN

[Chacor]

Upgraded and named.

218
WTPQ21 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0913 MUJIGAE (0913) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 19.0N 114.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 19.3N 112.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 120000UTC 19.8N 110.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 130000UTC 20.4N 107.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.3N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.4N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.5N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.6N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.2N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 113.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
195 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME VISIBLE AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 14W HAS CONTINUED TO EXTEND
WESTWARD OVER EASTERN CHINA, CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW OVER TD 14W, WHICH HAS CAUSED THE INCREASE IN VWS.
MUJIGAE IS STILL TRACKING BRISKLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH TOWARDS
HAINAN ISLAND. VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND, TD 14W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BEFORE CROSSING BACK INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN. TRACK SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW AS MUJIGAE CROSSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND THE STR
WEAKENS. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM BETWEEN
TAU 60 AND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 19.4N 112.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.5N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.5N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.8N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.0N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.6N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 112.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
195 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z
AND 111500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 632
WTPQ21 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0913 MUJIGAE (0913)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 19.6N 112.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 19.8N 109.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 121200UTC 20.1N 107.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 131200UTC 20.9N 105.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.6N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.7N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.9N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.3N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
235 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TUCKED UNDER
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHEARING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC OVER
HAINAN. THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEILAN, HAINAN
(ZJHK), LOCATED LESS THAN ONE DEGREE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LLCC, SUPPORT A 30 KNOT SYSTEM, WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REPORTED AT
999 MB. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL HAINAN, CROSS INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN
AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM, THEN TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN VIETNAM AS
A WEAK DEPRESSION. LANDFALL WITH VIETNAM WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 36.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER LEVELS, CONFIRMED
BY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG SOUTHERN CHINA, WILL CONTINUE TO
FACILITATE WESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

Tropical Depression Mujigae? From what I can see since it was named they have held it as a 35kt TS the entire time.

WTPQ21 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0913 MUJIGAE (0913)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 19.9N 111.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 20.1N 108.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 121800UTC 20.5N 105.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =