WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.0N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.0N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.5N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.5N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 36.5N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 42.3N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 140.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 42
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Very large eye

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 140.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 140.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.8N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.9N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.6N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.1N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 43.2N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 140.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 15W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE
RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 24. STY 15W HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ERODING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
OUTFLOW MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, WHICH EXPLAINS THE WEAKENING SEEN OVER THE PAST SIX TO
TWELVE HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Slowly going down

[cycloneye]

PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 21.6N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.7N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 28.6N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 32.2N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 37.0N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 38.8N 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 139.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORHTWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z
AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

The eyewall showing signs of weakening

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 22.5N 139.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 25.6N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 191800UTC 31.2N 144.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 201800UTC 36.3N 150.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[CrazyC83]

It's still a HUGE storm though...I wonder what the HDP and IKE are with this?

I would guess it is down to 105 kt right now.

[CrazyC83]

No longer a super typhoon:

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 22.5N 139.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 139.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.4N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 29.0N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 32.2N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 37.7N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 39.7N 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 139.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-
DEFINED EYE WITH MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
CENTER. HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS
FURTHER ERODED, LEADING TO DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO
T6.0 FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. TY 15W HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A NORTH-
WESTWARD COURSE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHOI-WAN WILL
CREST THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND START TO ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, WELL EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. BY TAU 48 THE
SYSTEM WILL START TO ENGAGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z,
180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

[Squarethecircle]

Impressive, though obviously not intensity-wise.

[Emmett_Brown]

Impressive, though obviously not intensity-wise.

Awesome example of concentric eye walls

[I-wall]

Impressive, though obviously not intensity-wise.

Awesome example of concentric eye walls

Wow, that is amazing! Does anyone know where I can get sattelite pics of this storm? I didnt see any on the NHC website.

[CrazyC83]

Probably the best ERC I have seen in a long time.

[Macrocane]

Probably the best ERC I have seen in a long time.

One of the best I have seen since I started to track tropical cyclones, even in a wekening trend is a beautiful storm.

[HURAKAN]

I have never seen one that obvious!!! WOW!!!

2 LAT x 60 = 120 nm

2 LON x 60 = 120 nm

120 x 120 = 14,400 nm^2

LARGE EYE!

[Squarethecircle]

Visible shows the EWRC quite clearly:



Also, the microwave has about a 1.1 degree radius (just spotting it); pi * 66^2 nmi^2 = 13700 nmi^2, but that's just semantics.

[somethingfunny]

That is amazing.

[Category 5]

how classic is this?

[somethingfunny]

Un freaking real.

Choi-Wan can't possibly be feeling the shear associated with that oncoming trough too strongly...how often does a hurricane manage to complete an ERC that beautifully? I don't think I've ever seen one that nice. I'd bet Choi-Wan isn't finished surprising us yet.