EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY (16E)

[clfenwi]

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invest_ep972009.invest
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200909141445
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2009, DB, O, 2009091412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972009
EP, 97, 2009091312, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1031W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2009091318, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1038W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2009091400, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1047W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2009091406, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1057W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2009091412, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1065W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010



GFS, ECMWF and NOGAPS models have developed this on various runs in the past couple of days. Could be another storm to affect the Baja Peninsula.

[cycloneye]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1451 UTC MON SEP 14 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972009) 20090914 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090914 1200 090915 0000 090915 1200 090916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 106.5W 16.7N 108.4W 17.7N 110.4W 18.8N 112.3W
BAMD 15.5N 106.5W 16.4N 108.8W 17.3N 111.0W 18.3N 112.8W
BAMM 15.5N 106.5W 16.7N 108.8W 17.5N 110.9W 18.4N 113.1W
LBAR 15.5N 106.5W 16.5N 108.5W 17.8N 110.6W 19.1N 112.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090916 1200 090917 1200 090918 1200 090919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 113.9W 21.0N 116.4W 21.9N 118.1W 22.2N 119.7W
BAMD 19.3N 113.8W 21.1N 113.9W 23.9N 112.1W 27.4N 109.1W
BAMM 19.2N 114.5W 20.3N 116.1W 21.4N 116.2W 22.3N 115.5W
LBAR 20.2N 113.1W 22.2N 112.4W 25.1N 110.4W 29.7N 105.5W
SHIP 50KTS 52KTS 47KTS 43KTS
DSHP 50KTS 52KTS 47KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 106.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 104.7W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 103.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

NRL also has this system as 97L. Go figure that out!!!



WRONG SIDE OF MEXICO!!!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CIRCULATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

14/1800 UTC 15.9N 108.5W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

Another system for Baja California to keep an eye on.

[I-wall]

Is it just me, or does it look like there might be some banding in the northwest quad? Looks like there is some good rotation, even if it's at the mid level.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good. Yes, I-wall, looks like some banding is developing in the northern quadrant and the rotation is becoming more evident. Definitely on its way.

[somethingfunny]

Looking good, could be Marty by this time tomorrow. The BAMD is showing a sharp recurve so it seems the faster it deepens, the farther east the rainfall threat will be. South Texas still needs plenty of rain, but we're really saturated up here in NTX and having an EPAC system rain itself out over us would not be a good thing right now.

[I-wall]

When we will get some new qscat images?

[cycloneye]

Code Red

149
ABPZ20 KNHC 142331
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED //
WTPN21 PGTW 150230 COR
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150230Z SEP 09//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 150230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 108.2W TO 17.7N 112.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 16 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 142330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 108.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160230Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

292
ABPZ20 KNHC 151139
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA REMAIN DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

786
ABPZ20 KNHC 151740
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA SHOWS SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM
REACHES COOLER WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

15/1800 UTC 17.8N 112.7W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 152333
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[storm92]

Any idea why this has not yet developed? What's holding it back???

-B

[HURAKAN]

Any idea why this has not yet developed? What's holding it back???

-B

Based on the latest quikscat, a closed LLC hasn't developed.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look very healthy this evening