SW of Sumatra: Disturbance 02R (Invest 91S)

[wyq614]

Let's see how much probability it has to become a TC.

[somethingfunny]

I'm amazed...I cannot recognize the geography of this system's location. Is it on the Equator, just west of Sumatra? It sure looks odd to see cyclonic turning stretching across 0° latitude.

[HURAKAN]

Model support

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[HURAKAN]

A circulation appears to be present and relatively close to the equator

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.3S 95.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 94.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1340 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION PERSISTING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF SUMATRA. A 160659Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION FLANKING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED, AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 152338Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SUGGESTS
THAT WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT THE CENTER. DESPITE
AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND WELL-DEFINED LLCC, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN
FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[brunota2003]

Wind shear in excess of 40 knots is only a "limiting factor in further consolidation and strengthening"???????? Nothing would even think about thinking about forming in that here in the Atlantic!

[wyq614]

17/0230 UTC 6.0S 95.0E T1.5/1.5 91S -- Southeast Indian

Maybe the 40-kt shear is just nothing more than a limiting factor.

[Typhoon10]

So does this look like next TC in South China Sea?

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 94.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 93.5E, APPROXIMATELY 790 NM WEST OF
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT, CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE
WRAPPING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 170327Z ASCAT PASS IDENTIFIES A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20- TO 25-KNOT WINDS,
THOUGH THE LLCC IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY. A 171130Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND A 171259Z 37H TRMM IMAGE
DEPICT CURVED INFLOW WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION INTO AN APPARENT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LESS HOSTILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). IN ADDITION, AS THE SYSTEM IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, THERE IS DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT OUFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

So does this look like next TC in South China Sea?

This is the other side of the equator in TCWC Jakarta's AOR.

[Iune]

could become Anggrek

[Iune]

So does this look like next TC in South China Sea?

This is the other side of the equator in TCWC Jakarta's AOR.

Perth says it is in La Reunion's AOR and Jakarta doesn't mention it at all.

IDW10900
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:18pm WST on Thursday the 17th of September 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A tropical low near 5.5S 94.7E is expected to move slowly southwest over the
next few days, but not move into the area. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone
developing in the next three days is:
Friday : Low
Saturday : Low
Sunday : Low
** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[wyq614]

I guess it will be a deserted system, unless it intensifies to a TS, as irresponsible Jakarta doesn't mention it, Australia doesn't say anything about its potential, and it may already have dissipated when reaches west of 90E.

[P.K.]

Perth says it is in La Reunion's AOR and Jakarta doesn't mention it at all.

It is definitely in TCWC Jakarta's AOR using the location in the TCWC Perth outook. La Reunion's AOR starts/ends at 90E.

[P.K.]

Advisories now being issued on this as 02R.

WTIO30 FMEE 200716


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20092010
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 2

2.A POSITION 2009/09/20 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 85.0E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1008 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/09/20 18 UTC: 11.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/09/21 06 UTC: 12.2S/80.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/09/21 18 UTC: 12.0S/79.3E DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.0

CONVECTION HAS ENHANCE OVER THE LAST PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE
LESSENING
OF THE EAST-NORTH-EAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
24
HOURS WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
GRADIENT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING OVER
COOLER
SEAS.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY REGULAR WARNING.=

[HURAKAN]

20/1830 UTC 12.1S 83.3E T1.5/1.5 91S -- Southwest Indian

[HURAKAN]

870
WTIO30 FMEE 201234


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20092010
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 2

2.A POSITION 2009/09/20 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 84.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1008 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 15 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/09/21 00 UTC: 12.0S/82.2E TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/09/21 12 UTC: 12.8S/79.5E DISSIPATING.
36H: 2009/09/22 00 UTC: 14.1S/77.0E DISSIPATING.
48H: 2009/09/22 12 UTC: 15.3S/74.5E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.0

CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED EQUATORWARD BUT REMAINS STRONG POLEWARD.
THE SYSTEM IS STILL TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON AND
AFTER
TONIGHT (DECREASING EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND COOLER SST).

LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.=