ATL: Invest 98L

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Latest position for the weather site http://www.stormpulse.com/ 12,8N 44,7W. I don't why are they so south since this morning?!

[Gustywind]

Latest position for the weather site http://www.stormpulse.com/ 12,8N 44,7W. I don't why are they so south since this morning?!

Should i add 8 PM (latest position)...

[cycloneye]

850mb vorticity looks very good.

[Gustywind]

James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 19, 2009 5:11 pm ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

In the Atlantic, 3 tropical disturbances are being watched.

The remnants of Fred are located around 425 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas, moving slowly west-northwest.

Some thunderstorms continue to flare with Fred and an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is investigating this system this afternoon.

Further east, a low pressure area is located halfway between Africa and the Leeward islands.

Persistent showers and thunderstorms are occurring with this system, as it moves west-northwest. It will continue to be monitored and development into a tropical depression is possible.

In the far eastern Atlantic to the northeast of the Cape Verde Islands, another area of low pressure and thunderstorms could organize a little further before moving into cooler waters

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N43W.
THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WNW NEAR 8 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N IF THE CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
40W-44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 9N-20N
BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

Yoyoing time continue...BIG jump to the north given SSD: They are very far north from the NHC
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/2345 UTC 15.3N 44.3W T1.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic
Here are the latest fourth positions:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/2345 UTC 15.3N 44.3W T1.0/2.0 98L
19/1745 UTC 13.0N 42.6W T1.5/2.0 98L
19/1145 UTC 13.8N 42.2W T2.0/2.0 98L
19/0600 UTC 13.0N 41.3W T2.0/2.0 98L

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Code Orange

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N45W
MOVING TO THE WNW NEAR 9 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 40W-43W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 43W-48W.
WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.
$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Invest #98L
Tropical Disturbance Summary
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... st98L.html
Invest #98L
Location: Central Atlantic Lat: 14.5N Lon: 43.8W Moving: NW 17 mph (15 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)

Invest #98L Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
0000 SUN SEP 20 14.5N 43.8W NW 17 (15) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)

[Gustywind]

Doesn't looking good this morning...

[Gustywind]

Code Orange


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201146
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

TWD 805 AM

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N45W
MOVING TO THE WNW NEAR 9 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 44W-49W. WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
WALTON

[wxman57]

Moderate risk of development today or tomorrow for a sheared, disorganized area of isolated thunderstorms, huh?

Enough said...

[Sanibel]

Sometimes the satellite says it all. They should have learned the lesson of 2009.

[gatorcane]

looks like 98L will degenerate into a remnant swirl and head west to west-northwest with the low-level flow, could be another naked swirl watch like fred was

I agree with Wxman. No reason why there is Code orange on this area. Should be a code yellow.

[MGC]

Yea, currently little chance for development with all that shear.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Bye-bye from NHC.

ABNT20 KNHC 201740
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

98L
Code Yellow