ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
wyq614
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 827
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:32 am
Location: Beijing, China (Hometown: Qingdao, China, 36.06N 120.43E)
Contact:
Contact wyq614

ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#1 Postby wyq614 » Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:15 am

First plot:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 180646
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0646 UTC FRI SEP 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090918 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090918 0600 090918 1800 090919 0600 090919 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 38.5W 13.9N 40.3W 14.5N 42.0W 15.3N 43.9W
BAMD 13.3N 38.5W 13.8N 39.7W 14.4N 41.1W 15.1N 42.6W
BAMM 13.3N 38.5W 13.5N 40.0W 13.9N 41.5W 14.5N 43.0W
LBAR 13.3N 38.5W 13.6N 39.7W 14.6N 41.0W 15.9N 42.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090920 0600 090921 0600 090922 0600 090923 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 45.3W 16.2N 47.9W 16.9N 50.9W 17.6N 54.0W
BAMD 15.8N 44.0W 16.9N 46.9W 18.3N 49.8W 20.4N 52.3W
BAMM 15.0N 44.3W 15.4N 46.9W 16.3N 50.0W 17.5N 52.8W
LBAR 17.3N 44.3W 20.2N 47.1W 22.6N 49.1W 24.3N 49.4W
SHIP 32KTS 38KTS 39KTS 39KTS
DSHP 32KTS 38KTS 39KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 38.5W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 37.2W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:51 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:39 am

Code: Select all

683
WHXX04 KWBC 181117
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    98L

INITIAL TIME   6Z SEP 18

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            13.2             38.7           260./ 7.0
   6            13.7             39.4           307./ 8.8
  12            13.8             40.3           273./ 8.9
  18            14.1             41.4           288./11.4
  24            14.6             42.4           295./10.6
  30            14.6             43.4           274./ 9.3
  36            15.0             44.2           291./ 9.0
  42            15.6             45.3           302./11.8
  48            16.2             45.7           323./ 7.4
  54            16.7             46.3           310./ 7.5
  60            17.1             47.0           301./ 7.8
  66            17.7             47.6           313./ 8.2
  72            18.2             48.2           312./ 7.5
  78            19.0             49.1           310./11.9
  84            19.6             49.9           305./ 9.4
  90            20.4             50.6           320./10.0
  96            21.1             51.3           319./10.0
 102            21.9             51.6           338./ 8.4
 108            23.0             51.8           349./10.5
 114            23.9             51.7             7./ 9.4
 120            24.8             51.3            20./ 9.8
 126            26.0             50.8            26./12.6


FISH if it's correct
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:40 am

Image

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:59 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:21 am

604
WHXX01 KWBC 181255
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 UTC FRI SEP 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090918 1200 090919 0000 090919 1200 090920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 39.2W 13.5N 40.7W 14.4N 42.3W 15.5N 43.8W
BAMD 12.6N 39.2W 13.3N 40.6W 14.0N 42.1W 14.7N 43.6W
BAMM 12.6N 39.2W 13.1N 40.6W 13.6N 42.0W 14.3N 43.3W
LBAR 12.6N 39.2W 13.1N 40.5W 14.1N 42.1W 15.5N 43.9W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090920 1200 090921 1200 090922 1200 090923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 45.0W 16.3N 47.9W 17.1N 50.7W 18.4N 53.5W
BAMD 15.1N 45.1W 16.1N 48.2W 17.8N 51.3W 20.7N 54.0W
BAMM 14.5N 44.6W 14.9N 47.5W 16.0N 50.4W 18.2N 52.6W
LBAR 16.9N 45.8W 19.6N 48.5W 22.2N 50.2W 24.9N 49.1W
SHIP 34KTS 40KTS 40KTS 39KTS
DSHP 34KTS 40KTS 40KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 246DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 36.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re:

#7 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:31 am

HURAKAN wrote:604
WHXX01 KWBC 181255
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 UTC FRI SEP 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090918 1200 090919 0000 090919 1200 090920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 39.2W 13.5N 40.7W 14.4N 42.3W 15.5N 43.8W
BAMD 12.6N 39.2W 13.3N 40.6W 14.0N 42.1W 14.7N 43.6W
BAMM 12.6N 39.2W 13.1N 40.6W 13.6N 42.0W 14.3N 43.3W
LBAR 12.6N 39.2W 13.1N 40.5W 14.1N 42.1W 15.5N 43.9W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090920 1200 090921 1200 090922 1200 090923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 45.0W 16.3N 47.9W 17.1N 50.7W 18.4N 53.5W
BAMD 15.1N 45.1W 16.1N 48.2W 17.8N 51.3W 20.7N 54.0W
BAMM 14.5N 44.6W 14.9N 47.5W 16.0N 50.4W 18.2N 52.6W
LBAR 16.9N 45.8W 19.6N 48.5W 22.2N 50.2W 24.9N 49.1W
SHIP 34KTS 40KTS 40KTS 39KTS
DSHP 34KTS 40KTS 40KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 246DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 36.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Relocation more south and west? :roll: :eek: . Moving west south west...we will see...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:34 am

Image

Another system forecasted to pass north or east of the islands. Lets see what happens.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re:

#9 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:46 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Another system forecasted to pass north or east of the islands. Lets see what happens.


You're right, seems once again pretty credible... :( I'm amazed to see how numerous invests have been relocate more south and west or moving west south west before begin something siginificant. For sure, we should be vigilant in the EC and all the islands of the Lesser Antilles...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9793
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#10 Postby artist » Fri Sep 18, 2009 9:17 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:14 pm

578
WHXX01 KWBC 181808
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1808 UTC FRI SEP 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090918 1800 090919 0600 090919 1800 090920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 39.9W 13.6N 41.6W 14.5N 43.5W 15.2N 44.9W
BAMD 12.8N 39.9W 13.4N 41.2W 14.1N 42.6W 14.7N 43.9W
BAMM 12.8N 39.9W 13.2N 41.4W 13.9N 43.1W 14.4N 44.5W
LBAR 12.8N 39.9W 13.2N 41.2W 14.2N 42.9W 15.2N 44.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090920 1800 090921 1800 090922 1800 090923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 46.2W 16.2N 49.2W 17.1N 52.5W 18.4N 56.0W
BAMD 15.1N 45.4W 16.3N 48.5W 18.2N 51.6W 21.2N 53.9W
BAMM 14.7N 45.9W 15.4N 49.1W 16.4N 52.4W 18.0N 55.6W
LBAR 16.5N 46.6W 19.5N 49.5W 21.9N 51.2W 24.2N 50.6W
SHIP 37KTS 43KTS 42KTS 41KTS
DSHP 37KTS 43KTS 42KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 38.6W DIRM12 = 257DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 37.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:53 pm

963
WHXX01 KWBC 190025
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0025 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090919 0000 090919 1200 090920 0000 090920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 40.4W 14.0N 42.2W 14.9N 43.9W 15.5N 45.3W
BAMD 13.1N 40.4W 13.8N 41.8W 14.7N 43.3W 15.2N 44.7W
BAMM 13.1N 40.4W 13.7N 42.0W 14.4N 43.6W 14.8N 44.9W
LBAR 13.1N 40.4W 13.9N 41.7W 15.2N 43.3W 16.1N 45.0W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090921 0000 090922 0000 090923 0000 090924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 46.6W 16.6N 49.7W 17.8N 52.7W 19.6N 55.3W
BAMD 15.7N 46.0W 17.2N 48.9W 19.6N 51.5W 23.4N 53.3W
BAMM 15.1N 46.3W 16.0N 49.5W 17.5N 52.4W 19.8N 54.5W
LBAR 17.5N 46.8W 20.0N 49.3W 22.2N 50.2W 24.1N 48.7W
SHIP 36KTS 40KTS 40KTS 38KTS
DSHP 36KTS 40KTS 40KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 39.2W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 37.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes   
Top
otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1787
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#13 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:26 am

See ya later little fishie. 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1317
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

#14 Postby BigA » Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:31 pm

12Z Canadian goes absolutely nuts with this thing, turns it into a whale shark (a huge fish).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139127
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 19, 2009 1:54 pm

This is my first post since last thursday afternoon because of internet outage.

253
WHXX01 KWBC 191809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090919 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090919 1800 090920 0600 090920 1800 090921 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 42.5W 14.8N 43.7W 15.5N 44.8W 15.9N 45.9W
BAMD 13.5N 42.5W 14.1N 43.7W 14.6N 44.9W 15.0N 46.0W
BAMM 13.5N 42.5W 14.1N 43.8W 14.6N 45.1W 14.9N 46.4W
LBAR 13.5N 42.5W 14.3N 44.0W 15.2N 46.0W 16.2N 47.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090921 1800 090922 1800 090923 1800 090924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 47.4W 17.6N 50.3W 19.8N 52.9W 21.9N 55.0W
BAMD 15.5N 47.2W 17.1N 49.5W 20.3N 51.2W 24.5N 50.7W
BAMM 15.3N 47.9W 16.6N 50.6W 18.9N 52.9W 21.5N 53.9W
LBAR 17.5N 49.9W 20.1N 52.6W 22.9N 52.7W 24.8N 50.3W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 43KTS 44KTS
DSHP 40KTS 44KTS 43KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 42.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 41.1W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 39.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#16 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 19, 2009 1:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is my first post since last thursday afternoon because of internet outage.

253
WHXX01 KWBC 191809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090919 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090919 1800 090920 0600 090920 1800 090921 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 42.5W 14.8N 43.7W 15.5N 44.8W 15.9N 45.9W
BAMD 13.5N 42.5W 14.1N 43.7W 14.6N 44.9W 15.0N 46.0W
BAMM 13.5N 42.5W 14.1N 43.8W 14.6N 45.1W 14.9N 46.4W
LBAR 13.5N 42.5W 14.3N 44.0W 15.2N 46.0W 16.2N 47.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090921 1800 090922 1800 090923 1800 090924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 47.4W 17.6N 50.3W 19.8N 52.9W 21.9N 55.0W
BAMD 15.5N 47.2W 17.1N 49.5W 20.3N 51.2W 24.5N 50.7W
BAMM 15.3N 47.9W 16.6N 50.6W 18.9N 52.9W 21.5N 53.9W
LBAR 17.5N 49.9W 20.1N 52.6W 22.9N 52.7W 24.8N 50.3W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 43KTS 44KTS
DSHP 40KTS 44KTS 43KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 42.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 41.1W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 39.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Yes, "Superman" :lol: from PR is back...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139127
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:45 pm

12z NOGAPS also like Canadian,goes nuts developing a huge fish.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#18 Postby Macrocane » Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:26 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Canadian was the first model that showed development from this system, now the NOGAPS, GFDL and HWRF are on board, let's wait for the other models to see if they develop 98L. I think that the chances of a tropical storm are rather high, conditions will improve over the next days and we may even have a cat 1 hurricane before conditions start to become unfavorable by 84-96 hours. Canadian and NOGAPS seem to predict less shear than GFS an tha may be the reason for their bullishness:

Shear tendency for the next 144 h
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139127
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:39 pm

18z GFDL has a 92kt hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18z HWRF has a weak Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139127
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Computer Models Thread

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:38 pm

897
WHXX01 KWBC 200036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SUN SEP 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090920 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090920 0000 090920 1200 090921 0000 090921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 43.8W 15.3N 45.3W 15.8N 46.7W 16.1N 48.1W
BAMD 14.5N 43.8W 15.1N 45.0W 15.6N 46.1W 16.1N 47.2W
BAMM 14.5N 43.8W 15.0N 45.1W 15.5N 46.4W 15.9N 47.7W
LBAR 14.5N 43.8W 15.9N 45.8W 16.9N 47.6W 18.2N 49.5W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090922 0000 090923 0000 090924 0000 090925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 49.6W 17.7N 52.6W 19.4N 55.5W 21.1N 57.8W
BAMD 16.8N 48.3W 18.7N 50.5W 21.5N 52.3W 24.9N 52.4W
BAMM 16.5N 49.0W 18.0N 51.3W 20.3N 52.8W 22.6N 52.5W
LBAR 19.3N 51.4W 21.4N 53.6W 23.7N 53.6W 25.2N 51.6W
SHIP 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 43.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 41.8W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 40.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Image
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 68 guests