WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KETSANA (17W/ONDOY)

[jinftl]

250,000-300,000 people left homesless from TS Ketsana.....roughly the same as the number of left homeless from Hurricane Katrina. Reminds us that any tropical system.....esp one hitting a vulnerable area.....can cause immense loss and destruction. Even a tropical storm.

[Aslkahuna]

PAGASA actually began warning about flooding 24 hours before they put out their first advisory. It's also noted that the first rescue operations began sooner after the hit than they did in NOLA with Katrina. As an aside, I was in the Philippines for the 1967 flood which was caused by a strong monsoon flow and not a Tropical Cyclone.

Steve

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.0N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.1N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.2N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.3N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.8N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 112.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TS KETSANA STILL HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, INDUCED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE STORM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE FIRMLY ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER TO A MINMUM TYPHOON BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR HUE. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Aslkahuna]

October and November are the peak months for dangerous typhoons in the Philippines. An extreme example being 1974 when 6 typhoons, 1 TS and TD hit the islands during those two months. All of the storms except for the TD hit some part of Luzon. Clark AB was evacuated twice for typhoon winds and had TS force gusts with 3 other storms.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 402
WTPQ20 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0916 KETSANA (0916)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 16.0N 113.3E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 375NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 16.2N 110.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 291800UTC 16.3N 108.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 301800UTC 17.1N 106.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[Cyclenall]

Why is it the most destructive and deadly storms are almost always these tropical storms in the western Pacific? A category 4-5 typhoon hits somewhere and there is brief mention of in the media and there are under 30 deaths but then a TD or TS hits and it's doomsday. It keeps happening!

[jinftl]

I think it has more to do with those who are most vulnerable..through poverty and sub-standard living conditions....being much more impacted by what possibly could be viewed as more of a nuisance in other places. You don't have to go to the WPAC to find instances of this.....look at Haiti. There have been many instances of systems ranging from tropical waves to tropical storms killing hundreds or more and leaving thousands homeless.

The building codes in areas of abject poverty, along with the lack of flood control adds to the problem. Not to mention, the ability to prepare properly is hampered by poverty.

Why is it the most destructive and deadly storms are almost always these tropical storms in the western Pacific? A category 4-5 typhoon hits somewhere and there is brief mention of in the media and there are under 30 deaths but then a TD or TS hits and it's doomsday. It keeps happening!

[cycloneye]

On 1985 in southern Puerto Rico a tropical wave killed 85 people in a mudslide.

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[HURAKAN]

Death toll from Philippine storm rises to 86: govt

(AFP) – 1 hour ago

MANILA — At least 86 people are confirmed dead and 32 remain missing two days after massive flooding in the Philippines, Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said Monday.

More than 435,000 people were displaced after tropical storm Ketsana dumped the heaviest rains in more than 40 years on the Philippine capital, Manila, and surrounding areas on Saturday, Teodoro told reporters.

However, the death toll was expected to climb.

Radio station DZBB quoted local officials as saying that 58 more bodies had been recovered from a flooded area in the Manila suburb of Marikina, but had not yet been included in the official tally.

Teodoro, who is also head of civil defence operations, said the government was looking into those reports.

"This has not been reported to us so we still cannot confirm this. We are going to call the (local) official so we can confirm this," he said, adding that search and relief operations were continuing.

[Iune]

[HURAKAN]

Continues to power westward

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 65 knots

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Typhoon,but JMA still has it as STS.

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.9N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.1N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.2N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.3N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 112.4E.
TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST OF HUE,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Eye becoming more defined

[cycloneye]

I always have the question about why JTWC and JMA not upgrade systems at the same time.Right now JTWC has upgraded to Typhoon but still JMA has not.I know JMA is the official agency in that basin but why both dont do upgrades at the same time?

[HURAKAN]

I always have the question about why JTWC and JMA not upgrade systems at the same time.Right now JTWC has upgraded to Typhoon but still JMA has not.

60 knots 10-min is similar to a 65 knots 1-min!

[cycloneye]

60 knots 10-min is similar to a 65 knots 1-min!

Thank you for the answer.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 0916 (Ketsana)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 28 September 2009
<Analyses at 28/09 UTC>
Scale Very Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°05'(16.1°)
E111°35'(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S900km(475NM)
N700km(375NM)

[HURAKAN]

A lot of rain for SE Asia