WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98W
It will be interesting to see if 98W interacts with 99W in front as HURAKAN said.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98W
WTPN32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261521ZSEP2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 157.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 157.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 10.3N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 11.1N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.0N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.4N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 156.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 18W HAS INTENSIFIED TO WARNING CRITERIA OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.5
TO 2.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW NORTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS. DUE TO THE STILL WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS GUAM, WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENDED FIELDS
FROM ECMWF (THE MOST RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL THUS FAR THIS SEASON)
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, A VORTEX TRACKER
BASED ON ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST.
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKER.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 261530).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261521ZSEP2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 157.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 157.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 10.3N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 11.1N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.0N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.4N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 156.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 18W HAS INTENSIFIED TO WARNING CRITERIA OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.5
TO 2.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW NORTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS. DUE TO THE STILL WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS GUAM, WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENDED FIELDS
FROM ECMWF (THE MOST RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL THUS FAR THIS SEASON)
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, A VORTEX TRACKER
BASED ON ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST.
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKER.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 261530).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139212
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
Tropical Storm Watch for Guam and Rota
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 271025
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-W (18W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182009
825 PM CHST SUN SEP 27 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. PEOPLE
THROUGHOUT THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK AND
840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR GUAM TUESDAY EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM MONDAY.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...10.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 156.8
DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2
AM CHST MONDAY.
$$
STANKO
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 271025
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-W (18W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182009
825 PM CHST SUN SEP 27 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. PEOPLE
THROUGHOUT THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK AND
840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR GUAM TUESDAY EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM MONDAY.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...10.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 156.8
DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2
AM CHST MONDAY.
$$
STANKO
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dowdavek
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 41
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 4:06 am
- Location: Dededo, Guam
- Contact:
Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
Guam National Weather Service Forecast
"Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Very windy, with a east northeast wind 14 to 17 mph becoming north between 41 and 44 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Very windy, with a east wind 55 to 60 mph becoming east 20 to 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph."
This should be interesting for us here on Guam.
"Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Very windy, with a east northeast wind 14 to 17 mph becoming north between 41 and 44 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Very windy, with a east wind 55 to 60 mph becoming east 20 to 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph."
This should be interesting for us here on Guam.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139212
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 156.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 156.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 10.9N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 11.5N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.3N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.3N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.7N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 155.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION SINCE REACHING WARNING STATUS AT 270600Z. FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST
WARNING, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W
(KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 156.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 156.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 10.9N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 11.5N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.3N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.3N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.7N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 155.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION SINCE REACHING WARNING STATUS AT 270600Z. FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST
WARNING, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W
(KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
WDPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) HAS REACHED WARNING STATUS
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY CON-
SOLIDATED AS EVIDENCED BY A 271017Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AS SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
(1.5) AND KNES (2.5) AS WELL AS THE 270717Z QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH
DEPICTS 20- TO 30-KNOT WINDS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST
REASONING FOR TD 18W.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY. DUE TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE, WITH NGPS, WBAR AND
GFDN BEING THE ONLY AVAILABLE NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS. THESE
TRACKERS INDICATE A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS GUAM. THE
EXTENDED FIELDS AVAILABLE FROM ECMWF (NO VORTEX TRACKER AVAILABLE
FROM EITHER ECMWF OR UKMO) INDICATES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IS
POSSIBLE, PASSING SOUTH OF (BUT CLOSE TO) GUAM. THIS FORECAST IS ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, REFLECTING THE MORE
RELIABLE (ALBEIT ABSENT A VORTEX TRACKER) GUIDANCE FROM ECMWF.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST THREE DAYS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PHILIPPINES, REACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY NEAR TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE PHILIPPINES, ALTHOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE
DISCOUNTED AS THE EASTERN PHILIPPINE SEA IS A KNOWN REGION OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 18W IS NOT EXPECTED
TO RECURVE AS THE STEERING RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN STRONG AND
ZONAL.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) HAS REACHED WARNING STATUS
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY CON-
SOLIDATED AS EVIDENCED BY A 271017Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AS SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
(1.5) AND KNES (2.5) AS WELL AS THE 270717Z QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH
DEPICTS 20- TO 30-KNOT WINDS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST
REASONING FOR TD 18W.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY. DUE TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE, WITH NGPS, WBAR AND
GFDN BEING THE ONLY AVAILABLE NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS. THESE
TRACKERS INDICATE A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS GUAM. THE
EXTENDED FIELDS AVAILABLE FROM ECMWF (NO VORTEX TRACKER AVAILABLE
FROM EITHER ECMWF OR UKMO) INDICATES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IS
POSSIBLE, PASSING SOUTH OF (BUT CLOSE TO) GUAM. THIS FORECAST IS ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, REFLECTING THE MORE
RELIABLE (ALBEIT ABSENT A VORTEX TRACKER) GUIDANCE FROM ECMWF.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST THREE DAYS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PHILIPPINES, REACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY NEAR TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE PHILIPPINES, ALTHOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE
DISCOUNTED AS THE EASTERN PHILIPPINE SEA IS A KNOWN REGION OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 18W IS NOT EXPECTED
TO RECURVE AS THE STEERING RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN STRONG AND
ZONAL.//
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
As we haved seen in the Ketsana thread about the massive floodings in Manila,we hope that was the last event for them this year but the models show a strong typhoon (TD 18W now) slamming them.See the ECMWF latest run.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 156.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 156.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 10.4N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 11.0N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 11.9N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.3N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.2N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.6N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.3N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 155.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
700 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED AS CONVECTION, MOSTLY WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), HAS DEEPENED. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 18W IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AS THE VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 26 CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS MINIMAL BUT MARGINALLY IN
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
NWS GUAM local statement
WTPQ82 PGUM 272232
HLSPQ2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
832 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W RELOCATED NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN GUAM...ROTA AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS UP TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WAS RELOCATED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
155.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
AND 780 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35
MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE MARIANAS. RESIDENTS OF GUAM
AND ROTA SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR EMERGENCY PROCEDURES AND RESTOCK
BASIC SUPPLIES. CHECK THE BATTERIES IN RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS.
STOCK UP ON DRINKING WATER AND CANNED OR DRIED FOOD. ENSURE YOU
HAVE A MANUAL CAN OPENER. HAVE ENOUGH SUPPLIES FOR TWO TO THREE
DAYS PER PERSON. GATHER MEDICINES...TOILETRIES...AND FIRST AID
SUPPLIES. HAVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF CASH ON HAND SINCE CREDIT
CARDS AND AUTOMATED CASH MACHINES DO NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. CHECK
FUEL LEVELS ON AUTOMOBILES AND GENERATORS. IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A
TRIP TO THE STORE OR GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH HOTEL MANAGEMENT OR LOCAL
OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY ACTIONS THEY SHOULD TAKE. LISTEN TO LOCAL
RADIO STATIONS FOR OFFICIAL INSTRUCTIONS AND SHELTER INFORMATION.
MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR
UNSAFE CONDITIONS. DO NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT AND RETURN QUICKLY
IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GUZ001-PMZ151-281215-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0002.090927T2232Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
832 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED WHICH MAY
DELAY THE TIMING OF IT REACHING THE MARIANAS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...MAKE PREPARATIONS TO LEAVE IF ORDERED
TO DO SO BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. BOAT OWNERS NEED TO
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W MOVES CLOSER...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$
GUZ002-PMZ152-281215-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0002.090927T2232Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
832 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED WHICH MAY
DELAY ITS TIMING OF REACHING THE MARIANAS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...MAKE PREPARATIONS TO LEAVE IF ORDERED
TO DO SO BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. BOAT OWNERS NEED TO
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W PASSES NEARBY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ROTA. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$
MUNDELL/EDSON
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php
WTPQ82 PGUM 272232
HLSPQ2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
832 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W RELOCATED NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN GUAM...ROTA AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS UP TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WAS RELOCATED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
155.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
AND 780 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35
MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE MARIANAS. RESIDENTS OF GUAM
AND ROTA SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR EMERGENCY PROCEDURES AND RESTOCK
BASIC SUPPLIES. CHECK THE BATTERIES IN RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS.
STOCK UP ON DRINKING WATER AND CANNED OR DRIED FOOD. ENSURE YOU
HAVE A MANUAL CAN OPENER. HAVE ENOUGH SUPPLIES FOR TWO TO THREE
DAYS PER PERSON. GATHER MEDICINES...TOILETRIES...AND FIRST AID
SUPPLIES. HAVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF CASH ON HAND SINCE CREDIT
CARDS AND AUTOMATED CASH MACHINES DO NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. CHECK
FUEL LEVELS ON AUTOMOBILES AND GENERATORS. IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A
TRIP TO THE STORE OR GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH HOTEL MANAGEMENT OR LOCAL
OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY ACTIONS THEY SHOULD TAKE. LISTEN TO LOCAL
RADIO STATIONS FOR OFFICIAL INSTRUCTIONS AND SHELTER INFORMATION.
MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR
UNSAFE CONDITIONS. DO NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT AND RETURN QUICKLY
IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GUZ001-PMZ151-281215-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0002.090927T2232Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
832 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED WHICH MAY
DELAY THE TIMING OF IT REACHING THE MARIANAS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...MAKE PREPARATIONS TO LEAVE IF ORDERED
TO DO SO BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. BOAT OWNERS NEED TO
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W MOVES CLOSER...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$
GUZ002-PMZ152-281215-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0002.090927T2232Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
832 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED WHICH MAY
DELAY ITS TIMING OF REACHING THE MARIANAS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...MAKE PREPARATIONS TO LEAVE IF ORDERED
TO DO SO BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. BOAT OWNERS NEED TO
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W PASSES NEARBY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF ROTA. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$
MUNDELL/EDSON
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
I like the track its taking. If it follows on that course, goes just to the north of Philippines it could come into the SCS towards Hong Kong! 
As it progresses is it likely to pick up strength?
As it progresses is it likely to pick up strength?
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
As it progresses is it likely to pick up strength?
The forecast from JTWC calls for slow intensification as it tracks west to westnorthwestward.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139212
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)
WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 9.5N 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 9.7N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 10.4N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 11.2N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.3N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.1N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.2N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.2N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 155.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
680 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z
AND 290300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 9.5N 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 9.7N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 10.4N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 11.2N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.3N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.1N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.2N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.2N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 155.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
680 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z
AND 290300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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