WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)

[brunota2003]

How do you have a TC pass over you and only have partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies? O.o Where's the rain???

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 9.1N 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 9.7N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 10.5N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 11.6N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.7N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.2N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.5N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 154.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TD 18W IS VERY LIMITED
DUE TO THE WEAK DEVELOPMENT, ITS POOR ORGANIZATION AND ITS LIMITED
HORIZONTAL EXTENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON VORTEX TRACKERS
FROM WBAR, EGRR, UKMO AND THE EXTENDED MODEL FIELDS FROM ECMWF. THE
FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY PROXIMITY TO TD 19W, WITH SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODELS SHOWING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, WITH
TD 19W BECOMING THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TD
18W AND TD 19W IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MODEL
RESOLUTION, VICE AN ACTUAL INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE
LATTER (NO INTERACTION BETWEEN TDS 18W AND 19W). THUS, THE TRACK FOR
TD 18W IS TO THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH AT TAU 120. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR TAU 48. IT IS WORTH
REPEATING THAT THERE ARE LIMITED NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS AVAILABLE
FOR THIS SYSTEM, INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W
(KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[dowdavek]

So far today we have had about 2 inches of rain and some wind this morning from the 19W system on Guam. They put us in condition of readiness 3 this afternoon. The typhoon shutters are closed, food stocked, now ready for the storm. The movement has been a little strange lately? Anyone have thoughts about possible strengthening tonight?

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2009 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 9:15:44 N Lon : 153:54:22 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 992.7mb/ 49.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.3 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.5mb

Center Temp : -75.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 9.3N 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 153.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 10.3N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 11.3N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.2N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.3N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.8N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.0N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.4N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 153.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot like a tropical storm

[cycloneye]

WTPQ82 PGUM 281600
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST TUE SEP 29 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W STILL MOVING WEST NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN GUAM...ROTA AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND
SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.3 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 635 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 630 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY TROPICAL DEPRESSION
18W AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN GUAM
SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE OUTAGES OF POWER AND WATER.
STOCK UP ON DRINKING WATER AND CANNED OR DRIED FOOD. MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS OR LANTERNS AND PORTABLE RADIOS.
SECURE ENOUGH SUPPLIES TO LAST UP TO THREE DAYS PER PERSON.
GATHER MEDICINES...TOILETRIES...AND FIRST AID SUPPLIES. CHECK FUEL
LEVELS OF AUTOMOBILES AND GENERATORS. IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP
TO THE STORE OR GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. LISTEN
TO LOCAL RADIO STATIONS FOR OFFICIAL INSTRUCTIONS AND SHELTER
INFORMATION. MARINERS SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT AND RETURN
QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 9 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-290500-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
200 AM CHST TUE SEP 29 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE ISLAND OF GUAM REMAINS IN CONDITION OF READINESS 3. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF GUAM WEDNESDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MADE BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR EMERGENCY
INFORMATION. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W MOVES
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN GUAM AND GUAM COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-290500-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
200 AM CHST TUE SEP 29 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE ISLAND OF ROTA REMAINS IN CONDITION OF READINESS 3. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF GUAM WEDNESDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MADE BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR EMERGENCY
INFORMATION. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. HIGH WINDS BELOW TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 FOOT OR LESS ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

MUNDELL

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 9.7N 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 10.4N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 11.2N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.0N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.8N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.4N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.3N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.0N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 152.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 281533Z AMSR-E
IMAGE SHOWS CURVED INFLOW THAT IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION IS SEEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC WITH
SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING MODERATE WESTWARD VENTING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, AFTER WHICH IT WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT MOVES TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIR THROUGH TAU 72, AFTER WHICH THERE IS
CONCERN THAT INTERACTION WITH TS 19W, STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST,
COULD RESULT IN ACCELERATION OR AN ERRATIC TRACK WITH REGARDS TO
18W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[HURAKAN]

Easterly shear continues to impact this system

[StormingB81]

By late week it will be interesting what these systems do (18 and 19) as they will almost be right next to each other.

[cycloneye]

The forecast intensity is down in this warning.

WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 152.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 152.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 11.3N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.2N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.2N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.1N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.6N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.2N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 151.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[cycloneye]

I think the close proximity of both Tropical Storm Parma in front and Invest 90W behind has affected TD 18W in its developing proccess.

[brunota2003]

What happened to them expecting it to reach 75 knots? Now it shows it as a depression for most of it's life, only reaching 35 knots for what? 24 hours at most?

[theavocado]

What happened to them expecting it to reach 75 knots? Now it shows it as a depression for most of it's life, only reaching 35 knots for what? 24 hours at most?

WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
460 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UW-CIMSS
PRODUCTS INDICATE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER
THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED OUTFLOW DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 90W AND 19W. THIS CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TWO
STRONGER AREAS IS ALSO DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE
SYSTEM ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS
ON THE 281934Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN, ESPECIALLY AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS. TD 18W IS NOW EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 35 KNOTS AND THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO TS 19W BY TAU 120.
B. TD 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MODEL GUIDANCE, IN GENERAL, ALSO
SUPPORTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME ABSORBED (ECMWF, UKMO) INTO TS 19W WHILE OTHER
MODELS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48 (GFS, GFDN).
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ABSORPTION OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE STRONGER
TS 19W AS THE TWO SYSTEMS CLOSE WITHIN 400 NM BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH TS
19W AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. TD 18W IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND INTERACTION WITH
TS 19W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 150.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 150.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.4N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.4N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.3N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.2N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 150.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE
IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH AN INCREASE FROM
2.0 TO 2.5 DVORAK FROM PGTW. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
STRENGTH ON THIS FORECAST. THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FORECAST
HAS TS 18W TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72, TS 18W WILL START
TO INTERACT WITH TS 19W, WITH DECREASING RANGE UNTIL COMPLETE
ABSORPTION OF TS 18W BY TS 19W AROUND TAU 96. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INTENSITY AT TAU 96 REFLECTS THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE COMBINED
SYSTEMS, HOWEVER, THE CIRCULATION FOR TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED INTO TS 19W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z
AND 300900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20W
(TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

29/0830 UTC 11.6N 149.9E T3.0/3.0 18W

50 mph

[CrazyC83]

Is JMA monitoring this as a TD, or not even on this?

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 11N 151E WNW 10 KT.