ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (08L)

[Brent]

Next!

Is Grace ever going to form?

[breeze]

Not looking too good right now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

[RL3AO]

Final tropical cyclone of the year? Its not looking very good out there. Like someone said those shear maps look like the middle of winter.

[expat2carib]

Just woke up from my nap Back to sleep again.

[leanne_uk]

Definately back to sleep, what a difference 3 hours have made to this system. Bad times

Just woke up from my nap Back to sleep again.

[CrazyC83]

No real surprise though. Conditions were forecast to quickly become hostile.

[brunota2003]

There's a TC in the Atlantic? Where?

Vis (IR since at night)



Rainbow:



Water Vapor:



Let's play "Find That TC!"

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0016 UTC SAT SEP 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (AL082009) 20090926 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090926 0000 090926 1200 090927 0000 090927 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 31.8W 19.4N 34.4W 21.7N 35.8W 23.5N 36.6W
BAMD 17.0N 31.8W 18.6N 33.6W 20.3N 34.8W 21.8N 35.1W
BAMM 17.0N 31.8W 18.5N 34.0W 20.1N 35.6W 21.2N 36.6W
LBAR 17.0N 31.8W 18.7N 33.3W 20.5N 34.4W 22.0N 34.9W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 35KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090928 0000 090929 0000 090930 0000 091001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 37.1W 27.9N 36.2W 27.1N 34.0W 23.6N 32.5W
BAMD 22.8N 35.1W 24.1N 35.5W 23.4N 34.9W 21.2N 34.2W
BAMM 22.0N 37.6W 23.5N 39.4W 24.2N 40.0W 23.0N 40.4W
LBAR 22.9N 34.7W 24.2N 33.0W 23.8N 28.8W 23.8N 22.1W
SHIP 37KTS 40KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 37KTS 40KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 30.0W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 28.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[leanne_uk]

Is it the shear thats pulled this apart so quickly or the dust?

[HURAKAN]

TD 8 waiting for D-MAX

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 260232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND AWAY FROM
LAND...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST OR ABOUT
560 MILES...900 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY BUT
IT SHOULD WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 32.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT43 KNHC 260236
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION WAS MINIMAL BUT IT HAS BEGUN TO
BLOSSOM AS WE SPEAK. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...FOR
THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...
STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WILL INDUCE WEAKENING...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR SOONER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS WHILE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SINCE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THE
PRESENCE OF THE DEPRESSION OR DEPICT THE DEPRESSION AS A SMALL
VORTMAX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.4N 32.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 18.4N 33.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 19.6N 36.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 37.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 38.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 32.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

[ozonepete]

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 32.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

R.I.P.
8 TD

[HURAKAN]

R.I.P.
8 TD

Not dead yet

[Evil Jeremy]

You know its a slow news day in South Florida when the main headline in the promo for the night news is "We will update you on the track of our latest tropical depression" lol.

[ozonepete]

R.I.P.
8 TD

Not dead yet

I know, Hurakan. You are absolutely right. We should never jump the gun. We really have to wait and see. Not to mention that when we pronounce a storm dead on here we usually wind up with a big plate of crow to eat.

[HURAKAN]

Staring to look better

[ozonepete]

Lookin' pretty good right now. Just for now anyway...

[ozonepete]

TD8 has popped out from behind the satellite eclipse looking really healthy...