ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (08L)

[hurricanetrack]

I love seeing those pop corn bursts of convection. Very cool!

[wxman57]

I love seeing those pop corn bursts of convection. Very cool!

Not much of a season for a hurricane chaser, is it, Mark? My team have been bored as well. it was nice not having to work two, three or four weeks without a day off this summer, though.

[wxman57]

Anybody here? Echo, echo, echo...

Wow! A new TD and nobody cares. We could pretend it'll be a threat to someone. Hey, maybe it'll hit Florida?

[carolina_73]

Anybody here? Echo, echo, echo...

Wow! A new TD and nobody cares. We could pretend it'll be a threat to someone. Hey, maybe it'll hit Florida?

[mf_dolphin]

They'll be waking up from their naps soon. Be careful what you ask for. You might just get it

[Typhoon_Willie]

That is very true! Looks like #8 may be a fish storm. We will have to wait and see.

[leanne_uk]

Yeh think everyone is asleep on this one ....

Even tho it aint expected to do all that much it sure better to watch this than nothing at all

[Frank2]

Far out - another fishie...

[breeze]

So, does everyone that seems to think this one will be a fish think that the fish will swim
all the way to the CONUS like ole Fred did? lol...

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 252033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...
22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.4N 31.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT43 KNHC 252034
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009
500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE
DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
25 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 12 HR
OR SO...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LIKELY TAKING THE CYCLONE NEAR AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY 48 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH A TONGUE OF
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST
12 HR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HR
OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BEFORE DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.4N 31.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 33.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 35.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.8N 36.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.4N 38.1W 25 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 39.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[carolina_73]

So, does everyone that seems to think this one will be a fish think that the fish will swim
all the way to the CONUS like ole Fred did? lol...

I am not going to say fishie. I don't want to have to deal with a ex Fred again.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Absolutely, positively, 100% fish - no doubt in my mind. This system will never threaten the Caribbean or the U.S., never ever.

There, I jinxed us.

[breeze]

Absolutely, positively, 100% fish - no doubt in my mind. This system will never threaten the Caribbean or the U.S., never ever.

There, I jinxed us.

Oh, GREAT...get out the Raid!!

[CrazyC83]

It is on a direct path for a huge wall of shear. It may not even make it to Grace, but if it is going to, it will have to very soon.

[leanne_uk]

You never know, the outlook for Fred was poor and he became a good fish....

I will close my eyes for a bit and hope TD 08L becomes our Grace.

Beats watching a whole lot of nothing even if the shear shreds it in 24hrs

[otowntiger]

YAWN Thank goodness for football season.

[ozonepete]

YAWN Thank goodness for football season.

I can't get up the gumption either. What with the dust, the upper winds and the track, I agree this is a big yawn. Hate to say it, but I don't think it'll say Grace.

[Macrocane]

The Euro and the GFS were consistent last week predicting development for this system, they dropped the develoment on the last few days but it seems that the previous forecast was right. I don't know if it will be Grace, it's not looking very good at the moment.

[leanne_uk]

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/DSTatlantic268_MT.jpg



Thats a whole lot of dust