WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[Dave C]

You can see how quickly the wall wrapped from east side around the north side from the 1st pic to the 2nd pic. Eye feature soon to follow!
3 more days to intensify till Guam and Saipan. At least they have plenty of time to prepare!

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Melor could become a powerful typhoon.

[cycloneye]

3 more days to intensify till Guam and Saipan

I think Saipan may get the worse of Melor.Plenty of time for those 62,000 who live there to prepare.

[cycloneye]

Sandy,do you have a good recent microwave image of Melor to see how the structure is evolving?

[HURAKAN]

Sandy,do you have a good recent microwave image of Melor to see how the structure is evolving?

It was on page 3, looks like a typhoon.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to a STS.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0918 MELOR (0918) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 13.0N 153.5E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 13.8N 151.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 021800UTC 14.6N 148.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 031800UTC 16.3N 144.3E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[cycloneye]

Latest track from JMA.

[cycloneye]

JTWC will increase the winds to 60kts at the 2100z warning as it appears at NRL.

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC warning=60kts

WTPN34 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 153.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 153.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.6N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.0N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.4N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.0N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.4N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.3N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.9N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 153.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
CATES TS 20W IS JUST WEST OF A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND
POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TS MELOR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[StormingB81]

So will it make it to Okinawa or turn first? I guess we will see

[cycloneye]

Small eye popping out.

[cycloneye]

30/2057 UTC 13.3N 153.5E T4.0/4.0 MELOR -- West Pacific

Typhoon status.

[StormingB81]

Looking at this if some of these models change it coule be in interesting week for Okinawa next week with 2 major typhoons.

[cycloneye]

NWS GUAM Local Statement

000
WTPQ84 PGUM 302355
HLSPQ4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
955 AM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...TROPICAL STORM MELOR STILL INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWEST...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECTED
LOCATIONS OF THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.1 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
515 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
535 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
560 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. LITTLE
CHANGE IN COURSE AND SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY...BECOMING A TYPHOON BEFORE
REACHING THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...MELOR IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND THE
RADIUS OF DAMAGING WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE ONSET
OF DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON GUAM.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF
NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY
SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND
BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT
OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY
AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-020000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
955 AM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GUAM
AND COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OTHER STRUCTURE
MADE OF LIGHT MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF
9 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

$$

GUZ002>004-PMZ152>154-020000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
955 AM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...AND WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OTHER STRUCTURE MADE OF LIGHT
MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR
CRAFT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF
12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

$$

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon=65kts

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TY 0918 (Melor)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 1 October 2009
<Analyses at 01/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N13°35'(13.6°)
E153°10'(153.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 260km(140NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC Joins JMA upgrading to typhoon=65kts

WTPN34 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 20W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.9N 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.3N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.4N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.7N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.5N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 152.9E.
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[dowdavek]

Starting to prepare again in Guam. At least it's a little easier this time because everything is already fixed for the storm. Currently expecting tropical storm winds on Saturday, maybe a little stronger depending on the track. Any ideas on what others think we can expect in Guam? There's a typhoon watch up for Rota which is only about 40 miles north of northern Guam where I live.

[cycloneye]

Starting to prepare again in Guam. At least it's a little easier this time because everything is already fixed for the storm. Currently expecting tropical storm winds on Saturday, maybe a little stronger depending on the track. Any ideas on what others think we can expect in Guam? There's a typhoon watch up for Rota which is only about 40 miles north of northern Guam where I live.

I posted the latest local Statement from the GUAM NWS four posts above this one.

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 0300z warning.

WDPN34 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS INTENSIFIED AND SLOWED DOWN ITS
FORWARD MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED FURTHER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THAT
TS 20W IS ON THE VERGE OF DEVELOPING AN EYE AND HAS DEVELOPED AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 20W IS
JUST WEST OF A DIVERGENT MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A FAIR
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE STORM IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION BY THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND UNDER
DIFFLUENT, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) TO THE WEST. TS MELOR WILL, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.//
NNNN