WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
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StormingB81
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
went to the local KMart here on Guam a few hours ago. Folks already starting to buy up the batteries and flash lights, etc. They have been through some real bad ones. 18W gave us a lot of rain this morning - footage airing on TWC right now. Guam NWSO and Pacific Daily News does an outstanding job keeping the locals updated. A shot from Guam yesterday when it was sunny:
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wxmann_91
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Re:
Typhoon10 wrote:Guys, is there any realtime website that shows the position of all Storms in WPAC with there projected directions but clearly shows place, islands, etc?
Try
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/
Just navigate around. There's some treasure within.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
WTPN34 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 154.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 154.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.2N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.2N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.5N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.8N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.5N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.7N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.3N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 154.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED
NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUILD, HOWEVER STILL REMAINS SPORADIC IN THE CURVED
BANDING AROUND THE CENTER. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER
HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND WITH INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, TS 20W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z,
010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 154.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 154.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.2N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.2N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.5N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.8N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.5N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.7N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.3N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 154.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED
NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUILD, HOWEVER STILL REMAINS SPORADIC IN THE CURVED
BANDING AROUND THE CENTER. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER
HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND WITH INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, TS 20W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z,
010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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ZCZC 324
WTPQ52 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 12.6N 154.8E POOR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 13.0N 153.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 020600UTC 13.5N 151.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 030600UTC 14.9N 148.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 040600UTC 17.2N 142.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
120HF 050600UTC 20.7N 137.0E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT =
NNNN
WTPQ52 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 12.6N 154.8E POOR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 13.0N 153.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 020600UTC 13.5N 151.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 030600UTC 14.9N 148.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 040600UTC 17.2N 142.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
120HF 050600UTC 20.7N 137.0E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT =
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2009 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 12:45:44 N Lon : 154:05:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 984.3mb/ 59.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.7 3.8 3.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.5mb
Center Temp : -79.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2009 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 12:45:44 N Lon : 154:05:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 984.3mb/ 59.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.7 3.8 3.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.5mb
Center Temp : -79.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
Another view of Melor.Its growing fast in intensity and it looks like the Marianas may get a big one.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
30/0830 UTC 13.0N 154.1E T3.5/3.5 MELOR -- West Pacific
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
JMA=45kts
TS 0918 (Melor)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 30 September 2009
<Analyses at 30/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°55'(12.9°)
E154°00'(154.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 190km
TS 0918 (Melor)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 30 September 2009
<Analyses at 30/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°55'(12.9°)
E154°00'(154.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 190km
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
JTWC 1500z warning=55kts
WTPN34 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 153.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.2N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.4N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.7N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.0N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.1N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 153.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTPN34 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 153.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.2N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.4N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.7N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.0N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.1N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 153.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Dave C
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 868
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
- Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)
Water vapor sat pic shows zonal flow across the region.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMWV.JPG
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMWV.JPG
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
Discussion of 1500Z warning.
WDPN34 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 300739Z QUIKSCAT PASS REFLECTS THE LLCC ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH UNFLAGGED 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 20W IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 3.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW.
ALSO, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 20W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND DIFFLUENT, FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
TS 20W MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE DIS-
PARITY AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OR NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FAVORS A TRACK TO THE SOUTH BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU
WDPN34 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 300739Z QUIKSCAT PASS REFLECTS THE LLCC ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH UNFLAGGED 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 20W IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 3.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW.
ALSO, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 20W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND DIFFLUENT, FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
TS 20W MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE DIS-
PARITY AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OR NORTH OF
SAIPAN. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FAVORS A TRACK TO THE SOUTH BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 280
WTPQ22 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 12.9N 154.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 13.5N 152.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 021200UTC 14.3N 150.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 031200UTC 15.8N 146.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
NNNN
WTPQ22 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 12.9N 154.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 13.5N 152.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 021200UTC 14.3N 150.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 031200UTC 15.8N 146.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
Tropical Storm Watch for GUAM,Typhoon Watch for ROTA,TINIAN AND SAIPAN
000
WTPQ34 PGUM 301504
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
200 AM CHST THU OCT 1 2009
...TROPICAL STORM MELOR INTENSIFYING EAST OF THE MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.5 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
560 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
590 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...13.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
153.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM CHST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$
MUNDELL
000
WTPQ34 PGUM 301504
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
200 AM CHST THU OCT 1 2009
...TROPICAL STORM MELOR INTENSIFYING EAST OF THE MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.5 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
560 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
590 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...13.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
153.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM CHST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$
MUNDELL
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
ZCZC 305
WTPQ22 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 13.0N 153.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 13.8N 151.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 021200UTC 14.3N 150.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 031200UTC 15.8N 146.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
NNNN
WTPQ22 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 13.0N 153.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 13.8N 151.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 021200UTC 14.3N 150.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 031200UTC 15.8N 146.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
NNNN
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