WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 582
WTPQ22 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 10.6N 156.9E POOR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 301500UTC 12.1N 154.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 011200UTC 13.0N 153.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 021200UTC 14.7N 150.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

WTPN34 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 157.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 157.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.2N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.7N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.0N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.7N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.9N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 156.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ALSO SEEN IN THE IMAGERY, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PGTW
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF 2.0 TO 2.5 OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC AND AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO CONTINUE BUILDING CONVECTION AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES.
THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLYING A FAIR DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. NOGAPS AND GFDN ALL INDICATE
AN EXCESSIVE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF TS 20W. THE UKMO, GFS, JGSM AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW A MORE LOGICAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE
CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE UKMO, GFS, JGSM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
17W (KETSANA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[cycloneye]

000
WTPQ34 PGUM 292230
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
800 AM CHST WED SEP 30 2009

...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM MELOR NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.6 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 325 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
415 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
815 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM MELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...11.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
156.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

WILLIAMS/EDSON

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2009 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 11:27:00 N Lon : 156:21:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 992.2mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.9 3.0 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -75.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[HURAKAN]

29/2030 UTC 11.2N 156.3E T3.0/3.0 MELOR -- West Pacific

50 mph

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 391
WTPQ22 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 11.1N 156.5E POOR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 12.5N 154.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 011800UTC 13.4N 153.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 021800UTC 15.0N 151.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Next 0300z JTWC warning will be at 40kts per NRL.

[cycloneye]

WTPN34 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 11.7N 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.4N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 12.5N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 12.7N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.1N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.8N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.8N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.6N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 155.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)

[StormingB81]

Can you imagine on the 6th having 2 Super typhoons..Can that really happend? That would be insane and crazy. But both are intensifing fast.

[cycloneye]

Melor has a good chance to turn into a strong typhoon (over 100kts)

[StormingB81]

And that tracck has it hitting near Siapan as a typhoon. Before Choi Wan came they said that its been years since they been hit be a typhoon and now they have a chance of getting hit within weeks of eachother.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 669
WTPQ22 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 11.5N 156.2E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 12.4N 154.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 020000UTC 13.2N 153.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 030000UTC 14.3N 150.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2009 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 11:49:54 N Lon : 155:28:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.7mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.3mb

Center Temp : -58.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[dowdavek]

Much larger and better organized than 18W. In Guam all eyes are currently on this storm.

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows the population of Saipan? I ask because it looks like that island may be close to the track of Melor.

[RattleMan]

Anyone knows the population of Saipan? I ask because it looks like that island may be close to the track of Melor.

A census in 2000 says 62,392.

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows the population of Saipan? I ask because it looks like that island may be close to the track of Melor.

A census in 2000 says 62,392.

Thank you for the answer.