EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF (18E)

[srainhoutx]

CDO developing. Olaf may surprise a few.

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[HURAKAN]

EP, 18, 2009100200, , BEST, 0, 203N, 1174W, 35, 1002, TS

I think the intensity will be increased to 40-45 knots by 8 PM PDT

[HURAKAN]

724
WHXX01 KMIA 020034
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC FRI OCT 2 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF (EP182009) 20091002 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091002 0000 091002 1200 091003 0000 091003 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 117.4W 21.9N 118.8W 23.4N 119.6W 24.6N 119.5W
BAMD 20.3N 117.4W 21.8N 118.6W 23.6N 118.9W 25.8N 117.1W
BAMM 20.3N 117.4W 21.6N 118.8W 23.1N 119.5W 24.6N 118.8W
LBAR 20.3N 117.4W 21.6N 118.0W 23.1N 118.0W 24.5N 116.3W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 38KTS 34KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 38KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091004 0000 091005 0000 091006 0000 091007 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.9N 118.1W 29.5N 111.5W 35.3N 104.0W 38.8N 94.9W
BAMD 28.4N 112.0W 32.6N 94.8W 32.0N 79.9W 27.3N 74.9W
BAMM 26.6N 116.6W 31.3N 105.7W 36.9N 94.4W 40.1N 77.0W
LBAR 26.9N 112.6W 34.7N 99.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 117.4W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 117.5W DIRM12 = 343DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.7N LONM24 = 116.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 325NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Kingarabian]

[HURAKAN]

Very intense convection

[lrak]

I wonder if this is an October surprise for Texas? A cold front with all that moisture...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/loop-wv.html

[srainhoutx]

I wonder if this is an October surprise for Texas? A cold front with all that moisture...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/loop-wv.html

No surprise to those that have been following AFD's and other discussions for the past week, Karl. The surprise may be the strengthing we are seeing right now.

[HURAKAN]

475
WTPZ43 KNHC 020231
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009
800 PM PDT THU OCT 01 2009

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF OLAF HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MORE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED IN THE LARGE
CIRCULATION AND PROBABLY HAS REFORMED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST
OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS. OLAF HAS SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...12 TO 24 HOURS...TO
STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS. THEREAFTER...OLAF SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
48 TO 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INTENSIFY OLAF ABOVE
45 KNOTS.

GIVEN THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. OLAF IS
ALREADY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
SOON WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS INDICATED.
THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH
TURNS OLAF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A DAY OR SO. ONLY THE UK MODEL
MOVES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF OLAF BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW SOONER
THAN EXPECTED...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 20.7N 117.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 21.2N 118.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 118.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 23.5N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0000Z 25.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Macrocane]

Olaf is one of the best 35 kt tropical storms I've ever seen, very deep convection and a beautiful structure, I have to admit that I thought it was not going to reach TS status.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS ASYMMETRIC
STRUCTURE IS LIKELY DUE TO 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THESE ESTIMATES AND A 0142 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS.

OLAF HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. A LARGE-SCALE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA WILL
INDUCE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER OLAF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THIS...COMBINED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. OLAF IS LOCATED AT THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND THIS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD CAUSING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO COMMENCE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND TO COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 0142 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 22.0N 117.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 117.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 25.3N 116.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 26.2N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 113.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Track

[HURAKAN]

EP, 18, 2009100212, , BEST, 0, 227N, 1175W, 40, 1000, TS

40 knots

[srainhoutx]

Good discussion in the USA Weather Topic (SE TX/SW LA) from Jeff Lindner concerning the heavy rainfall potential from Olaf through the weekend.

[HURAKAN]

054
WTPZ43 KNHC 021432
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009

SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 1008 UTC AQUA-1/AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS FROM THE NRL TC WEBSITE INDICATE THAT OLAF IS BECOMING
MORE VERTICALLY TILTED TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND SURFACE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST SEMICIRCLES. SHIP
3FXY2...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...
REPORTED A 37-KT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND AT 1200 UTC. BASED ON THE
SHIP REPORT AND A BLEND OF THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND OLAF SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS BASED ON THE SHIPS AND LGEM...SHOWING
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 2 DAYS.

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AND AN EARLIER
SSMIS IMAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09. THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. OLAF SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE
U.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD BRING THE REMNANTS OF OLAF OVER THE CENTRAL WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 117.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.2N 115.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 27.1N 113.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Becoming less organized

[HURAKAN]

036
WHXX01 KMIA 021830
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC FRI OCT 2 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF (EP182009) 20091002 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091002 1800 091003 0600 091003 1800 091004 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 117.3W 25.4N 116.7W 26.9N 114.3W 28.2N 110.9W
BAMD 23.4N 117.3W 25.7N 115.6W 28.2N 110.4W 30.6N 102.0W
BAMM 23.4N 117.3W 25.3N 116.1W 27.1N 112.6W 29.1N 106.7W
LBAR 23.4N 117.3W 25.5N 115.6W 27.6N 112.1W 30.1N 106.2W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 26KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 26KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091004 1800 091005 1800 091006 1800 091007 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.2N 107.1W 34.0N 99.2W 36.3N 90.1W 35.1N 78.2W
BAMD 32.3N 92.9W 32.6N 73.9W 30.5N 60.1W 32.8N 48.7W
BAMM 30.4N 100.1W 32.0N 89.7W 30.9N 80.4W 28.8N 74.3W
LBAR 33.2N 98.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.4N LONCUR = 117.3W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 21.6N LONM12 = 117.5W DIRM12 = 358DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 117.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 295NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN

[srainhoutx]

For those in TX and points East...