EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF (18E)

[HURAKAN]

30/1200 UTC 19.1N 114.0W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific

Time is running out

[HURAKAN]

visible

[HURAKAN]

661
WHXX01 KMIA 301451
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1451 UTC WED SEP 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090930 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090930 1200 091001 0000 091001 1200 091002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 114.0W 20.0N 116.4W 20.0N 118.8W 19.6N 121.1W
BAMD 19.3N 114.0W 20.2N 116.0W 20.8N 117.8W 21.5N 119.7W
BAMM 19.3N 114.0W 20.1N 116.1W 20.4N 118.2W 20.5N 120.3W
LBAR 19.3N 114.0W 20.6N 116.0W 22.1N 117.9W 23.2N 119.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091002 1200 091003 1200 091004 1200 091005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 123.0W 18.9N 124.6W 20.4N 122.8W 22.8N 118.6W
BAMD 22.3N 121.5W 25.7N 123.7W 32.7N 106.4W 33.9N 81.0W
BAMM 20.6N 122.4W 21.5N 124.8W 24.6N 121.3W 30.1N 108.6W
LBAR 24.1N 120.1W 26.0N 117.6W 28.6N 107.7W 37.7N 90.8W
SHIP 34KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 114.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 111.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 108.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



Not very optimistic

[cycloneye]

A small window left.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE....GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[srainhoutx]

The big story from 91 E maybe the rainfall expected in TX. Although development looks less likely for a strong system, the moisture from this disturbance may help areas that are in a severe drought situation.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PHNC 302030
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.1N 114.0W TO 20.6N 121.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 302000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 115.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 115.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 301531Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH
INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. THE 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH A CURVED
BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301339Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED
A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT IMPROVED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (ALBEIT STRONGER
OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ENHANCED ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012030Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[supercane]

with current movement will quickly run out of warm water (out of 80+ F area = 26.6 C, traditional TC development threshold) and into the E Pac graveyard. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/nepac_sst_oper0.png

supercane

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 1 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

We have a new TD

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009
800 AM PDT THU OCT 01 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9
WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES...935 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.0N 117.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009
800 AM PDT THU OCT 01 2009

OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AND SHOWS SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS WHICH DEPICT A WEAKER
CYCLONE...PREDICT A LATER TURN AND LESS OF A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATER SOLUTION...BUT
DOES SHOW A NORTHEAST TURN BEFORE DISSIPATION...IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND BECOME STRONGER THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE ALSO BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.0N 117.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.4N 119.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.8N 119.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.3N 120.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 21.3N 120.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

The main concern continues to be the moisture from TD 18 E becoming entangled in the West Coast Trough and spreading it toward TX and points eastward in the coming days. There is a flooding potential being discussed in the USA Weather Topic for TX for those that may want to follow.

viewforum.php?f=24

[tolakram]

They need to work on the color code system during the off season Red to OJ to TD.

It's extremely difficult to predict, so no intense criticism from me, but maybe there's a way to improve it a bit.

[HURAKAN]

Track

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

01/1800 UTC 19.3N 117.9W T2.0/2.0 91E -- East Pacific

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

805
WHXX01 KMIA 011839
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC THU OCT 1 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN (EP182009) 20091001 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091001 1800 091002 0600 091002 1800 091003 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 117.9W 20.0N 119.7W 20.7N 121.2W 21.4N 122.4W
BAMD 19.2N 117.9W 20.1N 119.7W 21.0N 121.3W 22.4N 122.4W
BAMM 19.2N 117.9W 19.9N 119.7W 20.7N 121.3W 21.5N 122.5W
LBAR 19.2N 117.9W 20.2N 119.1W 21.3N 120.2W 22.5N 120.6W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS 36KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091003 1800 091004 1800 091005 1800 091006 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 123.2W 23.6N 123.7W 26.8N 118.0W 32.4N 110.1W
BAMD 24.4N 122.4W 30.3N 107.1W 32.9N 84.8W 28.8N 78.8W
BAMM 22.6N 123.3W 26.2N 120.3W 32.9N 106.4W 39.6N 89.6W
LBAR 23.2N 119.6W 27.4N 112.5W 37.2N 97.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 117.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.7N LONM12 = 117.1W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.7N LONM24 = 115.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 325NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

857
WTPZ33 KNHC 012041
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009
200 PM PDT THU OCT 01 2009

...FIFTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST OR ABOUT 565
MILES...905 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.4N 117.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



175
WTPZ43 KNHC 012042
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009
200 PM PDT THU OCT 01 2009

THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION NOTED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1702 UTC ASCAT PASS DETECTED AN AREA OF
30-35 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND BASED ON THESE
DATA THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE FIFTEENTH
OF THE 2009 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. OLAF IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-28
DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALSO...AS OLAF MOVES TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER LATITUDES...IT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. GIVEN THESE NEGATIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OLAF IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

LATEST VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/5. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS
MORNING. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
AS TO WHEN AND WHERE OLAF MAY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS THAT
MAINTAIN A STRONGER...MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE OLAF TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION THAT
OLAF WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 20.4N 119.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 21.0N 120.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Not much time for Olaf