ATL : INVEST 92L

[cycloneye]

Hi, this was the first thread about this system:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106794

Is is possible always to post here a link to the locked discussion thread in Talkin' Tropics in the first post of a new invest? Thx.

I forgot to add the link at the first post but is there now.Thanks for the reminder.

[HURAKAN]

A track close to South America doesn't necessarily mean that it won't develop, as an example, here is Tropical Storm César (July 25, 1996)





It will be interesting if 92L can develop and be named, because if the track is correct, it will likely make a safe crossing into the Pacific and be the first storm to keep its name since the rule was implemented in 2001.

[Macrocane]

Cesar was a bad storm here in Central America, certainly something to keep both eyes on

[southerngale]

Hi, this was the first thread about this system:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106794

Is is possible always to post here a link to the locked discussion thread in Talkin' Tropics in the first post of a new invest? Thx.

Good idea. When an Invest, TD, etc. forms, we've asked staff to post a link in the TT thread to the new thread in Active Storms, but never thought to ask everyone to do the same here, for those who want a quick reference to the thread before it became an Invest, TD, or named storm. Thanks.

[HURAKAN]

Sea Surface Temperatures won't be a problem.



A long way to go

[floridasun78]

why put invest on area that going run into land? and look weaker and other day when it look better it look like nhc few days late

[Derek Ortt]

LGE also takes this to 85KT

[BigA]

The models look like they have initiated this system at 9.3 north (Initiating a system without a well-defined low-level center is always a craps-shoot), but it looks like if there is a spin developing, it is a bit north of 9.3, closer to 10.0 exactly. This may be academic, but it may also be the difference between being too close to SAM to develop, and being far enough north.

[HURAKAN]

why put invest on area that going run into land? and look weaker and other day when it look better it look like nhc few days late

Since the models show the disturbance skirting the SA coast, there is a chance for development. If the path is further south, then there is no way but the disturbance may stay at a good distance from the coast to be able to develop and that's why it's an invest. I guess!

[BigA]

why put invest on area that going run into land? and look weaker and other day when it look better it look like nhc few days late

I think that the NHC thinks that there is at least some chance that 92L moves north far enough to not be mauled by South America. Considering that it is at about 10.0 north right now, and 57.5 west, if it moves much at all north of due west it should be far enough north to clear Trinidad and Tobago (northern coast at 10.7 north, 61.1 west). And unlike almost every other system this year, upper level shear isn't really an issue. I think this is invest-worthy.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... km_visible

I agree with BigA that the "center" or area of greatest rotation, appears to be close to 10°N and not 9.3°N like the model initiated.

[cycloneye]

Is the ridge going to be very strong to not allow 92L to go north and track all the way to the EPAC?

[wxman57]

Is the ridge going to be very strong to not allow 92L to go north and track all the way to the EPAC?

The ridge to its north is currently strong and forecast to strengthen with time. This system is heading west.

[cycloneye]

Lets see what GFDL and HWRF have in their first plots later this afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

Like Lewis and Clark

[lrak]

took me a while but then I got it.... HURAKAN good one! History wasn't my favorite, unless it was WAR!

[HURAKAN]

took me a while but then I got it.... HURAKAN good one! History wasn't my favorite, unless it was WAR!

For some reason it came to my mind Lewis and Clark when I read wxman57 post.

[cycloneye]

The first GFDL plots are only for 6 hours.

WHXX04 KWBC 081713
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.8 56.9 280./22.9
6 9.6 58.6 295./18.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Blown Away]

Convection really starting to build.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

Wrong initiation, 8.8°N.