EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA (19E)

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Re: EPAC : Invest 92E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 6:40 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN ITS ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Re: EPAC : Invest 92E

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 11, 2009 7:41 am

11/1200 UTC 16.3N 108.3W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

A little more work to do
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 11, 2009 7:42 am

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Producing a lot of rain for SW Mexico
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:48 am

231
WHXX01 KMIA 111237
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC SUN OCT 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20091011 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091011 1200 091012 0000 091012 1200 091013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 108.4W 18.4N 109.1W 20.4N 109.7W 22.2N 109.9W
BAMD 16.5N 108.4W 17.9N 109.5W 19.4N 110.2W 20.9N 110.5W
BAMM 16.5N 108.4W 18.0N 109.4W 19.4N 110.1W 20.8N 110.4W
LBAR 16.5N 108.4W 17.8N 108.7W 19.9N 108.9W 22.3N 108.9W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091013 1200 091014 1200 091015 1200 091016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 110.0W 26.6N 109.9W 27.1N 109.3W 26.0N 110.7W
BAMD 22.3N 110.3W 24.8N 110.9W 25.8N 111.8W 26.0N 114.2W
BAMM 21.8N 110.5W 23.7N 112.3W 24.7N 114.5W 24.9N 117.2W
LBAR 25.0N 108.0W 31.5N 103.3W 32.9N 92.3W 37.2N 82.6W
SHIP 28KTS 33KTS 34KTS 33KTS
DSHP 28KTS 33KTS 34KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 108.4W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 108.2W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 107.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



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Re: EPAC : Invest 92E

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 12:24 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922009_ep192009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910111716
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

TD-19-E comming shortly.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 92E

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 12:31 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 111728
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1728 UTC SUN OCT 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE NINETEEN (EP192009) 20091011 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091011 1800 091012 0600 091012 1800 091013 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 108.3W 19.0N 109.0W 21.0N 109.6W 22.7N 109.7W
BAMD 17.0N 108.3W 18.5N 109.3W 19.9N 110.0W 21.5N 110.0W
BAMM 17.0N 108.3W 18.5N 109.3W 20.1N 110.0W 21.5N 110.1W
LBAR 17.0N 108.3W 18.5N 108.4W 20.5N 108.4W 22.7N 108.2W
SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091013 1800 091014 1800 091015 1800 091016 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.5N 109.7W 26.2N 109.2W 25.3N 110.0W 24.4N 112.4W
BAMD 22.9N 109.7W 24.1N 110.8W 24.6N 113.5W 24.7N 115.9W
BAMM 22.5N 110.2W 23.6N 112.0W 23.7N 115.4W 23.2N 119.1W
LBAR 25.4N 107.5W 29.9N 103.4W 30.2N 96.0W 32.2N 81.1W
SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 37KTS 34KTS
DSHP 33KTS 38KTS 37KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 108.3W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 108.1W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 108.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 11, 2009 1:09 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WOULD BE
INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC : Invest 92E

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 1:32 pm

EP, 19, 2009101118, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1083W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 11, 2009 2:08 pm

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TD 19-E say NRL
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19-E

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 3:32 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...NINETEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2009 EAST PACIFIC SEASON
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4
WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION ARE AFFECTING A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.3N 108.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE NINETEENTH OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR
IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
FAVORS MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
IS A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WHICH BARELY MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL
STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
4 DAYS OR EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST FIXES YIELD A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/05.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
CONTINUED SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER A
WEAKER...AND MORE SHALLOW...SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.3N 108.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 20.3N 109.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 23.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19-E

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 7:34 pm

12/0000 UTC 17.6N 108.6W T2.5/2.5 19E -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19-E

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 7:47 pm

TS Patricia at next advisory.

EP, 19, 2009101200, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1085W, 35, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19-E

#33 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:49 pm

After almost losing it, GFDL sees an 85 knot hurricane and HWRF sees a 100 knot one.
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:37 pm

WTPZ34 KNHC 120236
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PATRICIA.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES...575 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.9N 108.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

120240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECAME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. BASED UPON INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
CONSENSUS T2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM
PATRICIA IS THE 16TH NAMED CYCLONE OF THIS RELATIVELY BUSY EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC SEASON.

A 2055Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS ALONG WITH THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALLOWS FOR A MODERATELY CONFIDENT INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 350/06. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST. A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF PATRICIA
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE CYCLONE IS
PROJECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE
LONGER RANGE...THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO LEAVE A WEAKENING VORTEX
IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS MAINTAIN A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND ADVECT IT AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS A
BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

PATRICIA HAS TWO...PERHAPS THREE...DAYS OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR BEFORE
IT MOVES NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. CONVERSELY...THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE MORE MIXED WITH QUITE WARM SSTS ALONG THE
CYCLONE'S PROJECTED TRACK...BUT FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE STATISTICAL LGEM
AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK PATRICIA NEAR 50 KT AT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHILE
THE DYNAMICAL HWRF AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO LGEM/SHIPS...BUT DOES
INDICATE A MORE INTENSE TROPICAL STORM THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.9N 108.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 21.1N 109.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 21.8N 109.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2009 6:20 am

WTPZ44 KNHC 120853
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2009

THE CENTER OF PATRICIA HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES TO ASSIST. BASED ON EARLIER ESTIMATES...THE
CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE T3.0 AND T2.5 RESPECTIVELY...WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/6. PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PATRICIA TO TURN WESTWARD IN 2-3
DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING PATRICIA
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE FASTEST AND SHOW
PATRICIA NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 24-36 HOURS.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND IT DEPICTS A
WEAKER CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT
IS FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR
AND OVER WARM SSTS. AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50-55 KT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HWRF REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER BUT
IT IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PATRICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.6N 108.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 19.7N 109.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 21.1N 109.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 22.8N 109.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 111.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 23.0N 114.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:48 am

12/1200 UTC 18.1N 109.5W T3.0/3.0 PATRICIA -- East Pacific

45 knots says Dvorak
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#37 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:50 am

Image

Looking good
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#38 Postby lrak » Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:32 am

What is going to make her turn so fast now? The WV loop really looks like she'll just go with the flow and trek towards the East?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/loop-wv.html it looks almost impossible for it trek west, amateur viewing skills remember :cheesy:

AKA karl
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:56 am

Tropical Storm Watch for southern Baja California

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 121454
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PATRICIA WILL
BE VERY NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.1N 109.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LARGE AND EXPANDING MASS OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PATRICIA DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...APPEARS SLOPPY AND NOT PARTICULARLY WELL
DEFINED IN A RECENT AMSR-E PASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO
3.0 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. IN SPITE OF THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PATRICIA...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
40 KT BASED ON THE LACK OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 04Z. A QUIKSCAT PASS IS
EXPECTED MOMENTARILY THAT SHOULD HELP DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF PATRICIA.

RECENT CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE FIXES YIELD A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
LONGER-TERM MOTION OF 325/07. EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...
PATRICIA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE RIDGE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO REBUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THE RIDGE COULD BUILD IN SOONER AND STRONGER...RESULTING IN A TURN
FARTHER SOUTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SPEEDS THE STORM
NORTHWARD BEFORE RIDGING CAN BUILD IN AND ALLOWS PATRICIA TO BE
PICKED UP BY WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. ULTIMATELY...HOW CLOSE
PATRICIA TRACKS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW MUCH
NORTHWARD PROGRESS IT MAKES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...JUST
PRIOR TO THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVEN THE
CURRENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE.

PATRICIA REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SSTS. THESE
TWO FACTORS ALONE SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING...AS PATRICIA INGESTS A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...CALLING
FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SHARPLY
COOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING...AND
PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 19.1N 109.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 20.3N 109.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 21.6N 109.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 22.4N 110.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 22.9N 110.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 112.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



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Derek Ortt

#40 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 12, 2009 10:24 am

A QS pass WAS available prior to the NHC advisory and showed 50KT winds


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas52.png
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