WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[oaba09]

I just hope it doesn't directly hit the country(even though almost all the forecasts are saying that it will)......We're already out of resources, our agriculture was HEAVILY damaged, and hundreds of lives were taken by the last 2 storms.......

[drdavisjr]

I just hope it doesn't directly hit the country(even though almost all the forecasts are saying that it will)......We're already out of resources, our agriculture was HEAVILY damaged, and hundreds of lives were taken by the last 2 storms.......

It would be devastating...I don't think San Roque Dam could withstand it.

[oaba09]

I just hope it doesn't directly hit the country(even though almost all the forecasts are saying that it will)......We're already out of resources, our agriculture was HEAVILY damaged, and hundreds of lives were taken by the last 2 storms.......

It would be devastating...I don't think San Roque Dam could withstand it.

I can't even think of what might happen to pangasinan, nueva ecija, benguet, and the other provinces that were hit by parma.........Even metro manila and rizal might be hit if the system moves a little south than what's currently forecasted.

[drdavisjr]

I just hope it doesn't directly hit the country(even though almost all the forecasts are saying that it will)......We're already out of resources, our agriculture was HEAVILY damaged, and hundreds of lives were taken by the last 2 storms.......

It would be devastating...I don't think San Roque Dam could withstand it.

I can't even think of what might happen to pangasinan, nueva ecija, benguet, and the other provinces that were hit by parma.........Even metro manila and rizal might be hit if the system moves a little south than what's currently forecasted.

If this storm intensifies into a Cat 3 or 4 like it's being forecasted now, and yeah, if it moves just a few degrees south, it would cause massive devastation. I'm afraid the loss of life would be much higher here in Manila, due to all the "informal settlers" here in the city.

[oaba09]

This TS finally made news here....People are now aware of this possible threat....Now it's time to study this further and see what the possible scenarios are.....

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 12.1N 142.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 142.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 12.7N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 13.3N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 13.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 141.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH,
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES (T2.5) AND RJTD (T1.5) DUE TO THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE (EVIDENT IN A
150400Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE). TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD TRACK
SPEED AND TAKE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 96, TS 22W
SHOULD RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A REBUILT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TS 22W MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE
SEA, SUFFICIENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT AND EXCELLENT OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG
TYPHOON. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 000
WTPQ20 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 12.1N 141.0E POOR
MOVE W 24KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 14.4N 135.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

JMA up to T2.0, JTWC at T3.0 and the SAB at T3.0. This isn't too far off being named now.

[drdavisjr]

It appears to be somewhat south of forecast track. Any idea of how this might effect overall track?

[oaba09]

It appears to be somewhat south of forecast track. Any idea of how this might effect overall track?

All I know is that south means bad

[ozonepete]

It appears to be somewhat south of forecast track. Any idea of how this might effect overall track?

Way too early to tell. A lot can change in the next 5 days so small shifts in its position right now don't mean much. The main problem remains that it appears the subtropical ridge to its north will not weaken enough to let it move north of the Philippines. Just very unfortunate the way it looks right now.

[drdavisjr]

It appears to be somewhat south of forecast track. Any idea of how this might effect overall track?

Way too early to tell. A lot can change in the next 5 days so small shifts in its position right now don't mean much. The main problem remains that it appears the subtropical ridge to its north will not weaken enough to let it move north of the Philippines. Just very unfortunate the way it looks right now.

Does it appear, so far, that it will make it to Northern Luzon as opposed to Central Luzon?

[ozonepete]

It appears to be somewhat south of forecast track. Any idea of how this might effect overall track?

Way too early to tell. A lot can change in the next 5 days so small shifts in its position right now don't mean much. The main problem remains that it appears the subtropical ridge to its north will not weaken enough to let it move north of the Philippines. Just very unfortunate the way it looks right now.

Does it appear, so far, that it will make it to Northern Luzon as opposed to Central Luzon?

Once again, it's way too early. There are shifting conditions coming up which will change the final outcome back and forth. The forecasters probably won't be able to make that kind of determination until around Sunday at the earliest - models and weather office track forecasts have an average error of about 300 miles for 3 days out.
Climatologically (average climate conditions over the years), northern Luzon has a higher chance than central in October because most typhoons recurve more to the north at this time of year. But as I said, there are too many ifs right now. We will all just have to wait.

[drdavisjr]

Once again, it's way too early. There are shifting conditions coming up which will change the final outcome back and forth. The forecasters probably won't be able to make that kind of determination until around Sunday at the earliest - models and weather office track forecasts have an average error of about 300 miles for 3 days out.
Climatologically (average climate conditions over the years), northern Luzon has a higher chance than central in October because most typhoons recurve more to the north at this time of year. But as I said, there are too many ifs right now. We will all just have to wait.

Thank you for that explanation. Yes, we will all have to wait.

[Macrocane]

If this storm intensifies into a Cat 3 or 4 like it's being forecasted now, and yeah, if it moves just a few degrees south, it would cause massive devastation. I'm afraid the loss of life would be much higher here in Manila, due to all the "informal settlers" here in the city.

Even if it doesn't intesify it can be devastating, remember that Ketsana was "only" a TS when it made its first landfall. I hope that it doesn't stall like Parma did, my best wishes are with you.

[ricmood]

This better go up to 17-18 degrees north before hitting land. Otherwise, manila's screwed! Electricity will be down for a week.

[drdavisjr]

If this storm intensifies into a Cat 3 or 4 like it's being forecasted now, and yeah, if it moves just a few degrees south, it would cause massive devastation. I'm afraid the loss of life would be much higher here in Manila, due to all the "informal settlers" here in the city.

Even if it doesn't intesify it can be devastating, remember that Ketsana was "only" a TS when it made its first landfall. I hope that it doesn't stall like Parma did, my best wishes are with you.

Yes, very true. We had about 2 foot of water in our living room downstairs during the height of Ketsana, and we were lucky.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 465
WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 12.1N 140.2E POOR
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 13.3N 134.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

1500z Warning from JWTC=45kts

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 12.4N 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.0N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.4N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.1N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.3N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 139.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN