WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132321Z OCT 09//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 9.6N 152.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 152.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 10.3N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.7N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.1N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.7N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.7N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.3N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.8N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 152.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 132321Z OCT 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 132330).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

JMA also upgrades to Tropical Depression.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09.7N 152.8E TRUKS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.POSITION POOR.MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.WARNING.

[oaba09]

Where do you guys think this TD is heading? What are the chances of this TD becoming a typhoon?

[drdavisjr]

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W//
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TD 22W HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AS INDICATED IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A 132118Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG DEEP CONVECTION
ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 131944Z QUIKSCAT
SHOWED 40-50 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS, HOWEVER, THESE WINDS WERE LOCATED
UNDER THE INTENSE CONVECTION AND WERE CONSIDERED SUSPECT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM TRUK, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SSW OF THE CENTER
INDICATED ONLY 10-KNOT WESTERLIES AND SLP NEAR 1010 MB SUPPORTING
THE TD CLASSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW SATELLITE FIXES AS
WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TD 22W.
B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AND GFS INDICATING A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF GUAM WHILE THE JGSM,
ECMWF, UKMO AND WBAR SUPPORT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF GUAM.
BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS APPEAR TO ERRONEOUSLY WEAKEN THE STR AND
TRACK THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. ALL FIELDS INDICATE A ZONAL PATTERN
WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE STR. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE STR AND TRACK THE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF GUAM. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD REACH 35-40 KNOT INTENSITY NEAR GUAM
THEN SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AFTER TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SHOULD INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS
FAVORS THE ECMWF, UKMO AND JGSM SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN

[JTE50]

I think it's going south of Guam as a tropical storm and will intensify in the Philippine Sea to a Supertyphoon tracking very near the Philippines.
When I got up this am you could see the cirrus outflow already spreading westward across Guam. That was 9 hours ago. It's looking a lot better now on visible satellite loops.

[drdavisjr]

I think it's going south of Guam as a tropical storm and will intensify in the Philippine Sea to a Supertyphoon tracking very near the Philippines.
When I got up this am you could see the cirrus outflow already spreading westward across Guam. That was 9 hours ago. It's looking a lot better now on visible satellite loops.

It looks like all the available data that I've seen so far supports what you are saying. Any chance in the ridge to the north weakening and allowing this storm to start tracking poleward?

[cycloneye]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 141029
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222009
800 PM CHST WED OCT 14 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.9
DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

DEPRESSION 22W IS MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. DEPRESSION 22W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 10.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 149.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM CHST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN

[P.K.]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 10.0N 151.0E TRUKS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[JTE50]

I think it's going south of Guam as a tropical storm and will intensify in the Philippine Sea to a Supertyphoon tracking very near the Philippines.
When I got up this am you could see the cirrus outflow already spreading westward across Guam. That was 9 hours ago. It's looking a lot better now on visible satellite loops.

It looks like all the available data that I've seen so far supports what you are saying. Any chance in the ridge to the north weakening and allowing this storm to start tracking poleward?

It's moving west at 16 right now - just a tad south of the JTWC forecast track. I guess we'll just have to wait and see . . .

[oaba09]

I think it's going south of Guam as a tropical storm and will intensify in the Philippine Sea to a Supertyphoon tracking very near the Philippines.
When I got up this am you could see the cirrus outflow already spreading westward across Guam. That was 9 hours ago. It's looking a lot better now on visible satellite loops.

It looks like all the available data that I've seen so far supports what you are saying. Any chance in the ridge to the north weakening and allowing this storm to start tracking poleward?

It's moving west at 16 right now - just a tad south of the JTWC forecast track. I guess we'll just have to wait and see . . .

If it's moving a tad south than what the JTWC predicted, then there's a possibility of a direct hit on the Philippines(AGAIN)

[drdavisjr]

If it's moving a tad south than what the JTWC predicted, then there's a possibility of a direct hit on the Philippines(AGAIN)

I think the original forecast track had it landfall around Aurora-Isabela

I'm afraid this storm will come in at between Aurora - Quezon, a direct hit on Metro Manila

[oaba09]

If it's moving a tad south than what the JTWC predicted, then there's a possibility of a direct hit on the Philippines(AGAIN)

I think the original forecast track had it landfall around Aurora-Isabela

I'm afraid this storm will come in at between Aurora - Quezon, a direct hit on Metro Manila

Well let's hope not....We haven't recovered from the past 2 typhoons yet...

[JTE50]

It's moving west at 16 right now - just a tad south of the JTWC forecast track. I guess we'll just have to wait and see . . .[/quote]

If it's moving a tad south than what the JTWC predicted, then there's a possibility of a direct hit on the Philippines(AGAIN)[/quote]

If you're in the Philippines I would be getting prepared just in case. This may be like our Florida in 2004 - one right after another - Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. It happens. If it goes to the Philippines I'll be flying to Manila and then figure it out from there

[drdavisjr]

If you're in the Philippines I would be getting prepared just in case. This may be like our Florida in 2004 - one right after another - Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. It happens. If it goes to the Philippines I'll be flying to Manila and then figure it out from there

Are you a storm chaser? Just wondering...

Just saw your website...awesome job!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[oaba09]

If you're in the Philippines I would be getting prepared just in case. This may be like our Florida in 2004 - one right after another - Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. It happens. If it goes to the Philippines I'll be flying to Manila and then figure it out from there

from what we experienced....I think people will be prepared this time......

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 10.1N 149.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 149.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 11.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.0N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.1N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.1N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.1N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.9N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.2N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 148.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[JTE50]

Lots of folks where I am staying on Guam are from the Philippines. I keep them up to date on the weather as well as the Japanese tourists - like for Melor when it traversed Japan. I store all the weather sites on the computer in the business office so anyone can pull up the latest. The Guam NWSO also does a great job keeping the local media outlets informed and they in turn get the word out on TV, Radio and print.

22W will be crossing an area south of Choi-Wan and Melor's track -at least for a few days. So it won't be following in the cooler wake of those two.

[HURAKAN]

Moving into prime territory