EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)
ZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009
...RICK WEAKENS...BUT STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES
...660 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. RICK IS THEN FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RICK IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 110.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190244
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009
DRY AIR AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LOCATED BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
LAYER...HAVE CONTINUED TO ERODE THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HURRICANE. THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...AND A 2101 AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE
HURRICANE HAD A PARTIAL CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE
DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CI NUMBERS OF 6.5/7.0 FROM TAFB AND 6.0/7.0 FROM SAB. IN
ADDITION...THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS NOW 6.1/6.7...
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KT.
RICK IS TURNING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305 DEGREES
AT 11 KT NOW THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST AND
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS A RESULT...THE EVOLVING STEERING FLOW WILL TURN RICK TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONLY THE
UKMET CONTINUES TO SHOW A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT RICK WILL
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 3. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THAT CONSENSUS AND NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INGESTION OF DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A LITTLE FASTER IN WEAKENING RICK THAN WAS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALREADY LOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST IMPORTANTLY...RICK
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN
2 TO 3 DAYS. A 96-HOUR POSITION IS SHOWN TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA
EARLY MONDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN BAJA AND ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RICK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.0N 110.3W 125 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.9N 111.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 111.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 20.2N 111.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 107.5W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.5N 106.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009
...RICK WEAKENS...BUT STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES
...660 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. RICK IS THEN FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RICK IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 110.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190244
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009
DRY AIR AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LOCATED BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
LAYER...HAVE CONTINUED TO ERODE THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HURRICANE. THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...AND A 2101 AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE
HURRICANE HAD A PARTIAL CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE
DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CI NUMBERS OF 6.5/7.0 FROM TAFB AND 6.0/7.0 FROM SAB. IN
ADDITION...THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS NOW 6.1/6.7...
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KT.
RICK IS TURNING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305 DEGREES
AT 11 KT NOW THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST AND
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS A RESULT...THE EVOLVING STEERING FLOW WILL TURN RICK TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONLY THE
UKMET CONTINUES TO SHOW A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT RICK WILL
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 3. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THAT CONSENSUS AND NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INGESTION OF DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A LITTLE FASTER IN WEAKENING RICK THAN WAS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALREADY LOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST IMPORTANTLY...RICK
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN
2 TO 3 DAYS. A 96-HOUR POSITION IS SHOWN TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA
EARLY MONDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN BAJA AND ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RICK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.0N 110.3W 125 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.9N 111.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 111.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 20.2N 111.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 107.5W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.5N 106.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)
cycloneye wrote:I hope that those 250 people who are at Socorro Island are hunkered down tonight if they didnt go out earlier
as the eye will pass close to that location. The dot you see in the images is Socorro Island.
I know, Luis, I keep looking at that little "dot" on the map and seeing that huge hurricane bearing
down on it, and I think about them and wonder how many are still there.
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CrazyC83
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Given all that data and thoughts, I would have gone with 115 kt which is what the lower-end Dvorak estimates are. No real-time Dvorak estimates are below that, and most are higher, but the weakening has been quick enough to go at the bottom of the range.
Although Dvorak is not always telling, in Kenna the estimates dropped from T7.0 to T5.5 yet Recon found virtually no change in winds (although a 30 mb drop in pressure suggests that the winds had dropped some as 90% likely wouldn't have applied anymore - they dropped it from 135 kt to 120 kt in the BT there).
Although Dvorak is not always telling, in Kenna the estimates dropped from T7.0 to T5.5 yet Recon found virtually no change in winds (although a 30 mb drop in pressure suggests that the winds had dropped some as 90% likely wouldn't have applied anymore - they dropped it from 135 kt to 120 kt in the BT there).
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ozonepete
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- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Given all that data and thoughts, I would have gone with 115 kt which is what the lower-end Dvorak estimates are. No real-time Dvorak estimates are below that, and most are higher, but the weakening has been quick enough to go at the bottom of the range.
Although Dvorak is not always telling, in Kenna the estimates dropped from T7.0 to T5.5 yet Recon found virtually no change in winds (although a 30 mb drop in pressure suggests that the winds had dropped some as 90% likely wouldn't have applied anymore - they dropped it from 135 kt to 120 kt in the BT there).
Man you are good at this stuff! And you have a great memory. These are the things we need to know and remember to become better forecasters.
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)
The latest observations from Socorro Island are sustained winds of 29.4 kts and gusts of 41.9 kts.The pressure keeps falling in a steady way.
http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/datos_emas/socorro.dat
Code: Select all
2009-10-19-02:00 94.0 29.4 95.0 41.9 26.0 81.0 1001.6 http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/datos_emas/socorro.dat
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190834
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
AS RICK MOVES THROUGH A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DEGRADED FURTHER WITH THE EYE NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
DRIER AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE WEST INTO THE CIRCULATION.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE HURRICANE...AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A GUESS SINCE THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN KNOWN TO NOT WORK VERY WELL FOR WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONES. BLENDING THE T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDED 115 KT AT 0600 UTC AND SINCE THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THEN THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RICK LATER TODAY AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE. EVEN
THOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SO HOSTILE AS TO
WEAKEN RICK BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOME MORE AND IS NOW NEAR 305/9. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A DAY OR SO. RICK IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE FIRST TROUGH. THEN...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN. THE ENVELOPE
OF THIS SUITE IS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TRACK...WHICH IS THE
SOUTHERNMOST MODEL AND THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH IS THE NORTHERNMOST.
THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING
OUTLIER SINCE IT SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION OF RICK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SINCE RICK COULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT
AND PREDICTED EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.5N 111.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W 105 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 112.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 22.3N 110.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ45 KNHC 190834
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
AS RICK MOVES THROUGH A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DEGRADED FURTHER WITH THE EYE NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
DRIER AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE WEST INTO THE CIRCULATION.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE HURRICANE...AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A GUESS SINCE THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN KNOWN TO NOT WORK VERY WELL FOR WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONES. BLENDING THE T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDED 115 KT AT 0600 UTC AND SINCE THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THEN THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RICK LATER TODAY AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE. EVEN
THOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SO HOSTILE AS TO
WEAKEN RICK BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOME MORE AND IS NOW NEAR 305/9. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A DAY OR SO. RICK IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE FIRST TROUGH. THEN...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN. THE ENVELOPE
OF THIS SUITE IS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TRACK...WHICH IS THE
SOUTHERNMOST MODEL AND THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH IS THE NORTHERNMOST.
THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING
OUTLIER SINCE IT SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION OF RICK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SINCE RICK COULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT
AND PREDICTED EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.5N 111.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W 105 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 112.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 22.3N 110.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)
This system went from very rapid intensification to rapid weakening.
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)
People in Baja are very lucky though they should still monitor the progress of Rick. How can he look so bad? Conditions must have changed rapidly.
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HURAKAN
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EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E) - RECON
845
URNT15 KNHC 191327
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 09 20091019
131830 2854N 09435W 3597 08301 0375 -280 -514 302022 022 999 999 03
131900 2854N 09437W 3598 08301 0375 -280 -517 309023 024 999 999 03
131930 2853N 09440W 3598 08299 0375 -276 -520 314025 026 999 999 03
132000 2852N 09443W 3598 08298 0375 -275 -522 315027 027 999 999 03
132030 2851N 09445W 3598 08302 0377 -275 -525 318028 028 999 999 03
132100 2850N 09448W 3598 08302 0377 -275 -526 319028 028 999 999 03
132130 2849N 09450W 3598 08301 0377 -275 -527 318028 028 999 999 03
132200 2848N 09453W 3598 08302 0377 -274 -525 316028 028 999 999 03
132230 2848N 09455W 3597 08304 0379 -272 -522 315027 027 999 999 03
132300 2847N 09458W 3597 08304 0379 -271 -519 316026 026 999 999 03
132330 2846N 09500W 3598 08304 0379 -270 -516 317025 026 999 999 03
132400 2845N 09503W 3598 08304 0379 -270 -514 318025 025 999 999 03
132430 2844N 09506W 3598 08305 0339 -270 -511 317024 025 999 999 03
132500 2843N 09508W 3598 08188 0272 -270 -510 317024 025 999 999 03
132530 2842N 09511W 3598 08203 0278 -270 -509 315024 024 999 999 03
132600 2841N 09513W 3598 08205 0280 -270 -508 315023 024 999 999 03
132630 2841N 09516W 3598 08205 0317 -270 -509 316022 022 999 999 03
132700 2840N 09518W 3598 08299 0373 -270 -510 315022 022 999 999 03
132730 2839N 09521W 3598 08303 0378 -270 -509 314021 022 999 999 03
132800 2838N 09524W 3598 08305 0381 -270 -506 315021 021 999 999 03
$$
;
Long way to go!
URNT15 KNHC 191327
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 09 20091019
131830 2854N 09435W 3597 08301 0375 -280 -514 302022 022 999 999 03
131900 2854N 09437W 3598 08301 0375 -280 -517 309023 024 999 999 03
131930 2853N 09440W 3598 08299 0375 -276 -520 314025 026 999 999 03
132000 2852N 09443W 3598 08298 0375 -275 -522 315027 027 999 999 03
132030 2851N 09445W 3598 08302 0377 -275 -525 318028 028 999 999 03
132100 2850N 09448W 3598 08302 0377 -275 -526 319028 028 999 999 03
132130 2849N 09450W 3598 08301 0377 -275 -527 318028 028 999 999 03
132200 2848N 09453W 3598 08302 0377 -274 -525 316028 028 999 999 03
132230 2848N 09455W 3597 08304 0379 -272 -522 315027 027 999 999 03
132300 2847N 09458W 3597 08304 0379 -271 -519 316026 026 999 999 03
132330 2846N 09500W 3598 08304 0379 -270 -516 317025 026 999 999 03
132400 2845N 09503W 3598 08304 0379 -270 -514 318025 025 999 999 03
132430 2844N 09506W 3598 08305 0339 -270 -511 317024 025 999 999 03
132500 2843N 09508W 3598 08188 0272 -270 -510 317024 025 999 999 03
132530 2842N 09511W 3598 08203 0278 -270 -509 315024 024 999 999 03
132600 2841N 09513W 3598 08205 0280 -270 -508 315023 024 999 999 03
132630 2841N 09516W 3598 08205 0317 -270 -509 316022 022 999 999 03
132700 2840N 09518W 3598 08299 0373 -270 -510 315022 022 999 999 03
132730 2839N 09521W 3598 08303 0378 -270 -509 314021 022 999 999 03
132800 2838N 09524W 3598 08305 0381 -270 -506 315021 021 999 999 03
$$
;
Long way to go!
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
033
WHXX01 KMIA 191249
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091019 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091019 1200 091020 0000 091020 1200 091021 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 111.3W 18.6N 113.4W 18.7N 114.8W 18.2N 115.3W
BAMD 17.6N 111.3W 19.0N 112.0W 20.5N 112.0W 22.2N 111.2W
BAMM 17.6N 111.3W 18.7N 112.5W 19.3N 113.0W 19.9N 112.4W
LBAR 17.6N 111.3W 18.6N 112.2W 19.9N 113.0W 21.3N 113.3W
SHIP 100KTS 78KTS 67KTS 64KTS
DSHP 100KTS 78KTS 67KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091021 1200 091022 1200 091023 1200 091024 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 114.8W 16.7N 112.5W 18.0N 112.6W 18.9N 114.5W
BAMD 24.2N 109.5W 28.6N 102.5W 35.3N 86.6W 44.3N 70.2W
BAMM 20.5N 110.7W 23.5N 107.0W 25.3N 100.9W 25.9N 89.5W
LBAR 23.1N 112.8W 26.7N 108.9W 29.9N 100.4W 35.9N 84.3W
SHIP 58KTS 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 58KTS 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 111.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 109.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 107.8W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 958MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 120NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 191249
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091019 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091019 1200 091020 0000 091020 1200 091021 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 111.3W 18.6N 113.4W 18.7N 114.8W 18.2N 115.3W
BAMD 17.6N 111.3W 19.0N 112.0W 20.5N 112.0W 22.2N 111.2W
BAMM 17.6N 111.3W 18.7N 112.5W 19.3N 113.0W 19.9N 112.4W
LBAR 17.6N 111.3W 18.6N 112.2W 19.9N 113.0W 21.3N 113.3W
SHIP 100KTS 78KTS 67KTS 64KTS
DSHP 100KTS 78KTS 67KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091021 1200 091022 1200 091023 1200 091024 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 114.8W 16.7N 112.5W 18.0N 112.6W 18.9N 114.5W
BAMD 24.2N 109.5W 28.6N 102.5W 35.3N 86.6W 44.3N 70.2W
BAMM 20.5N 110.7W 23.5N 107.0W 25.3N 100.9W 25.9N 89.5W
LBAR 23.1N 112.8W 26.7N 108.9W 29.9N 100.4W 35.9N 84.3W
SHIP 58KTS 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 58KTS 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 111.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 109.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 107.8W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 958MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 120NM
$$
NNNN
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MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5792
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)
Rick spun up quick and it looks like he is spinning down quick. Rick don't look good this morning. Hopefully this weakening trend continues as the hurricane heads for the Mexican coast.....MGC
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
610
WTPZ45 KNHC 191432
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE SHIPS MODEL
AND UW-CIMSS...APPEARS TO BE TAKING A TOLL ON RICK. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH AN EROSION OF THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
EYE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. AN AMSR-E PASS FROM 0913 UTC SHOWED
THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL HAS ERODED AND ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING VERTICALLY TILTED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE RICK
AND WILL PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE THE INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT RICK WILL BE EXPERIENCING VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. GIVEN THIS...ALONG
WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BUT REMAINS ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 24 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. BEYOND 24 HOURS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO ICON AND SHOWS RICK WEAKENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IN 72 HOURS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND
MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. RICK
SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE WEAKENS DUE TO A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A SCENARIO
THAT SHOWS RICK ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
...WHERE THE CIRCULATION OF RICK BECOMES VERTICALLY DECOUPLED
LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND...IS REPRESENTED BY THE UKMET
MODEL AND THE SHALLOW BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FIRST
SCENARIO...AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BEYOND 12 HOURS TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THE FIRST
12 HOURS...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON INFORMATION FROM AN
ASCAT PASS AT AROUND 0500 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.8N 111.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.6N 112.2W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.7N 111.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 21.1N 111.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 22.8N 109.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 106.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTPZ45 KNHC 191432
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE SHIPS MODEL
AND UW-CIMSS...APPEARS TO BE TAKING A TOLL ON RICK. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH AN EROSION OF THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
EYE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. AN AMSR-E PASS FROM 0913 UTC SHOWED
THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL HAS ERODED AND ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING VERTICALLY TILTED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE RICK
AND WILL PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE THE INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT RICK WILL BE EXPERIENCING VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. GIVEN THIS...ALONG
WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BUT REMAINS ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 24 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. BEYOND 24 HOURS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO ICON AND SHOWS RICK WEAKENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IN 72 HOURS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND
MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. RICK
SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE WEAKENS DUE TO A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A SCENARIO
THAT SHOWS RICK ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
...WHERE THE CIRCULATION OF RICK BECOMES VERTICALLY DECOUPLED
LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND...IS REPRESENTED BY THE UKMET
MODEL AND THE SHALLOW BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FIRST
SCENARIO...AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BEYOND 12 HOURS TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THE FIRST
12 HOURS...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON INFORMATION FROM AN
ASCAT PASS AT AROUND 0500 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.8N 111.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.6N 112.2W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.7N 111.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 21.1N 111.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 22.8N 109.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 106.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
099
NOUS42 KNHC 191345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 19 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-144
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RICK
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0220E RICK
C. 20/1200Z
D. 20.4N 111.5W
E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 21/1800Z
FIX ON RICK NEAR 23.5N 108.5W.
JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 191345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 19 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-144
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RICK
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0220E RICK
C. 20/1200Z
D. 20.4N 111.5W
E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 21/1800Z
FIX ON RICK NEAR 23.5N 108.5W.
JWP
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
573
URPN15 KNHC 191607
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 25 20091019
155830 2252N 10634W 3295 09012 0483 -260 -298 214030 030 999 999 03
155900 2251N 10636W 3291 09018 0482 -260 -284 209029 029 999 999 03
155930 2250N 10638W 3292 09017 0482 -258 -271 212030 030 999 999 03
160000 2249N 10641W 3290 09019 0481 -255 -278 210030 030 999 999 03
160030 2248N 10643W 3292 09016 0481 -255 -286 214029 030 999 999 03
160100 2246N 10645W 3294 09012 0482 -255 -289 216028 028 999 999 03
160130 2244N 10647W 3291 09019 0483 -255 -289 217028 028 999 999 03
160200 2243N 10649W 3292 09018 0483 -255 -289 218028 028 999 999 03
160230 2241N 10651W 3294 09014 0483 -255 -290 219029 029 999 999 03
160300 2240N 10652W 3290 09020 0482 -254 -291 217031 031 999 999 03
160330 2238N 10654W 3292 09017 0481 -253 -293 215032 032 999 999 03
160400 2237N 10656W 3292 09017 0483 -255 -292 214030 031 999 999 03
160430 2235N 10658W 3292 09019 0484 -255 -287 209029 029 999 999 03
160500 2233N 10700W 3292 09019 0485 -255 -284 207028 028 999 999 03
160530 2232N 10702W 3292 09018 0484 -255 -275 202027 028 999 999 03
160600 2230N 10704W 3292 09019 0484 -255 -286 199025 026 999 999 03
160630 2229N 10706W 3295 09013 0484 -251 -291 197025 025 999 999 03
160700 2227N 10708W 3294 09014 0485 -251 -283 205027 027 999 999 03
160730 2225N 10710W 3290 09024 0484 -250 -278 205025 026 999 999 03
160800 2224N 10712W 3291 09020 0485 -251 -281 196028 028 999 999 03
$$
;
Still far and the Google RECON graphic is not updating.
URPN15 KNHC 191607
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 25 20091019
155830 2252N 10634W 3295 09012 0483 -260 -298 214030 030 999 999 03
155900 2251N 10636W 3291 09018 0482 -260 -284 209029 029 999 999 03
155930 2250N 10638W 3292 09017 0482 -258 -271 212030 030 999 999 03
160000 2249N 10641W 3290 09019 0481 -255 -278 210030 030 999 999 03
160030 2248N 10643W 3292 09016 0481 -255 -286 214029 030 999 999 03
160100 2246N 10645W 3294 09012 0482 -255 -289 216028 028 999 999 03
160130 2244N 10647W 3291 09019 0483 -255 -289 217028 028 999 999 03
160200 2243N 10649W 3292 09018 0483 -255 -289 218028 028 999 999 03
160230 2241N 10651W 3294 09014 0483 -255 -290 219029 029 999 999 03
160300 2240N 10652W 3290 09020 0482 -254 -291 217031 031 999 999 03
160330 2238N 10654W 3292 09017 0481 -253 -293 215032 032 999 999 03
160400 2237N 10656W 3292 09017 0483 -255 -292 214030 031 999 999 03
160430 2235N 10658W 3292 09019 0484 -255 -287 209029 029 999 999 03
160500 2233N 10700W 3292 09019 0485 -255 -284 207028 028 999 999 03
160530 2232N 10702W 3292 09018 0484 -255 -275 202027 028 999 999 03
160600 2230N 10704W 3292 09019 0484 -255 -286 199025 026 999 999 03
160630 2229N 10706W 3295 09013 0484 -251 -291 197025 025 999 999 03
160700 2227N 10708W 3294 09014 0485 -251 -283 205027 027 999 999 03
160730 2225N 10710W 3290 09024 0484 -250 -278 205025 026 999 999 03
160800 2224N 10712W 3291 09020 0485 -251 -281 196028 028 999 999 03
$$
;
Still far and the Google RECON graphic is not updating.
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