EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

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HURAKAN
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#381 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:12 pm

492
URPN15 KNHC 191807
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 37 20091019
175830 1707N 11238W 6967 03140 0032 +095 +070 324036 037 999 999 03
175900 1706N 11239W 6967 03143 0038 +093 +070 325036 036 999 999 03
175930 1706N 11239W 6967 03143 0039 +092 +070 325036 036 999 999 03
180000 1703N 11242W 6967 03143 0033 +099 +069 322035 036 999 999 03
180030 1702N 11244W 6967 03145 0033 +100 +068 322034 035 999 999 03
180100 1700N 11245W 6967 03145 0036 +099 +068 321033 034 999 999 03
180130 1659N 11247W 6967 03147 0041 +095 +068 324032 032 999 999 03
180200 1657N 11248W 6968 03147 0046 +095 +068 321031 032 999 999 03
180230 1656N 11250W 6967 03148 0046 +094 +068 320030 030 999 999 03
180300 1655N 11251W 6967 03150 0043 +097 +067 320031 032 999 999 03
180330 1653N 11253W 6967 03153 0042 +100 +067 320030 031 999 999 03
180400 1652N 11254W 6968 03157 0051 +096 +068 318028 029 999 999 03
180430 1650N 11254W 6966 03160 0053 +095 +068 314028 029 999 999 03
180500 1649N 11251W 6967 03151 0048 +096 +069 310028 028 999 999 03
180530 1650N 11249W 6966 03155 0045 +097 +071 309028 028 999 999 03
180600 1650N 11247W 6969 03151 0046 +095 +073 312030 030 999 999 03
180630 1650N 11245W 6967 03153 0041 +099 +073 310030 030 999 999 03
180700 1650N 11243W 6966 03152 0042 +097 +074 307030 030 999 999 03
180730 1650N 11240W 6970 03147 0041 +098 +074 304030 030 999 999 03
180800 1651N 11238W 6967 03150 0042 +097 +075 302029 030 050 009 03
$$
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Re:

#382 Postby RattleMan » Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:19 pm

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
17:58:30z   17°07'N   112°38'W   696.7 hPa   3140m   1003.2 hPa   9.5°C   7°C   324° @ 36kt     37kt   -----   -----   Suspect
17:59:00z   17°06'N   112°39'W   696.7 hPa   3143m   1003.8 hPa   9.3°C   7°C   325° @ 36kt     36kt   -----   -----   Suspect
17:59:30z   17°06'N   112°39'W   696.7 hPa   3143m   1003.9 hPa   9.2°C   7°C   325° @ 36kt     36kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:00:00z   17°03'N   112°42'W   696.7 hPa   3143m   1003.3 hPa   9.9°C   6.9°C   322° @ 35kt     36kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:00:30z   17°02'N   112°44'W   696.7 hPa   3145m   1003.3 hPa   10°C   6.8°C   322° @ 34kt     35kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:01:00z   17°00'N   112°45'W   696.7 hPa   3145m   1003.6 hPa   9.9°C   6.8°C   321° @ 33kt     34kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:01:30z   16°59'N   112°47'W   696.7 hPa   3147m   1004.1 hPa   9.5°C   6.8°C   324° @ 32kt     32kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:02:00z   16°57'N   112°48'W   696.8 hPa   3147m   1004.6 hPa   9.5°C   6.8°C   321° @ 31kt     32kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:02:30z   16°56'N   112°50'W   696.7 hPa   3148m   1004.6 hPa   9.4°C   6.8°C   320° @ 30kt     30kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:03:00z   16°55'N   112°51'W   696.7 hPa   3150m   1004.3 hPa   9.7°C   6.7°C   320° @ 31kt     32kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:03:30z   16°53'N   112°53'W   696.7 hPa   3153m   1004.2 hPa   10°C   6.7°C   320° @ 30kt     31kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:04:00z   16°52'N   112°54'W   696.8 hPa   3157m   1005.1 hPa   9.6°C   6.8°C   318° @ 28kt     29kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:04:30z   16°50'N   112°54'W   696.6 hPa   3160m   1005.3 hPa   9.5°C   6.8°C   314° @ 28kt     29kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:05:00z   16°49'N   112°51'W   696.7 hPa   3151m   1004.8 hPa   9.6°C   6.9°C   310° @ 28kt     28kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:05:30z   16°50'N   112°49'W   696.6 hPa   3155m   1004.5 hPa   9.7°C   7.1°C   309° @ 28kt     28kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:06:00z   16°50'N   112°47'W   696.9 hPa   3151m   1004.6 hPa   9.5°C   7.3°C   312° @ 30kt     30kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:06:30z   16°50'N   112°45'W   696.7 hPa   3153m   1004.1 hPa   9.9°C   7.3°C   310° @ 30kt     30kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:07:00z   16°50'N   112°43'W   696.6 hPa   3152m   1004.2 hPa   9.7°C   7.4°C   307° @ 30kt     30kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:07:30z   16°50'N   112°40'W   697.0 hPa   3147m   1004.1 hPa   9.8°C   7.4°C   304° @ 30kt     30kt   -----   -----   Suspect
18:08:00z   16°51'N   112°38'W   696.7 hPa   3150m   1004.2 hPa   9.7°C   7.5°C   302° @ 29kt     30kt   50kt   9mm   Suspect

Max:   17°07'N   112°54'W   697 hPa   3160m   1005.3 hPa   10°C   7.5°C   36kt   37kt   50kt   9mm   
Min:   16°49'N   112°38'W   696.6 hPa   3140m   1003.2 hPa   9.2°C   6.7°C   28kt   28kt   50kt   9mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   696.7 hPa   3149m   1004.2 hPa   9.6°C   7°C   31kt   32kt   50kt   9mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   


I have to go now.
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#383 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:22 pm

:uarrow: Thanks!

270
URPN15 KNHC 191817
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 38 20091019
180830 1651N 11236W 6969 03145 0040 +098 +076 306031 032 999 999 03
180900 1651N 11233W 6965 03146 0040 +095 +077 307033 034 999 999 03
180930 1651N 11231W 6965 03149 0040 +095 +077 306034 034 999 999 03
181000 1651N 11229W 6969 03144 0038 +096 +077 307035 035 999 999 03
181030 1651N 11227W 6961 03153 0035 +097 +077 303034 035 999 999 03
181100 1651N 11224W 6967 03147 0034 +098 +078 303034 035 999 999 03
181130 1652N 11222W 6970 03138 0041 +091 +079 300033 034 999 999 03
181200 1652N 11220W 6966 03145 0037 +093 +080 299034 034 999 999 03
181230 1653N 11218W 6966 03141 0038 +091 +080 294032 033 999 999 03
181300 1653N 11215W 6967 03139 0036 +094 +080 290033 033 999 999 03
181330 1653N 11213W 6966 03142 0034 +094 +081 290032 033 999 999 03
181400 1654N 11211W 6965 03141 0031 +094 +081 287035 036 999 999 03
181430 1653N 11209W 6965 03144 0030 +095 +081 290034 034 999 999 03
181500 1653N 11206W 6967 03139 0029 +095 +081 288033 034 999 999 03
181530 1653N 11204W 6967 03139 0030 +094 +081 283034 034 999 999 03
181600 1653N 11202W 6966 03140 0029 +095 +082 282035 036 999 999 03
181630 1653N 11159W 6969 03137 0028 +097 +081 280034 034 999 999 03
181700 1653N 11157W 6965 03140 0023 +099 +081 278035 036 999 999 03
181730 1652N 11154W 6967 03138 0022 +101 +082 273036 036 999 999 03
181800 1652N 11152W 6967 03137 0019 +103 +082 271036 037 999 999 03
$$
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#384 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:31 pm

541
URPN15 KNHC 191827
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 39 20091019
181830 1652N 11150W 6969 03136 0011 +110 +082 265033 034 999 999 03
181900 1653N 11147W 6966 03142 0012 +109 +083 264035 035 999 999 03
181930 1653N 11145W 6967 03137 0012 +110 +084 263034 034 999 999 03
182000 1653N 11143W 6966 03142 0013 +110 +084 260034 035 999 999 03
182030 1653N 11143W 6966 03142 0012 +110 +085 258035 036 046 008 03
182100 1653N 11138W 6969 03140 0013 +108 +085 256036 036 999 999 03
182130 1653N 11135W 6966 03144 0018 +106 +085 255035 035 999 999 03
182200 1653N 11133W 6970 03134 0025 +100 +085 249037 037 999 999 03
182230 1653N 11131W 6966 03141 0028 +099 +085 247039 041 999 999 03
182300 1653N 11128W 6968 03140 0026 +100 +084 241041 041 999 999 03
182330 1653N 11126W 6967 03139 0025 +100 +082 239042 042 999 999 03
182400 1653N 11124W 6966 03141 0024 +102 +081 236042 042 999 999 03
182430 1654N 11121W 6970 03138 0025 +102 +079 234042 043 044 008 03
182500 1654N 11119W 6966 03143 0026 +100 +078 235043 043 999 999 03
182530 1654N 11117W 6969 03139 0027 +100 +078 238042 043 999 999 03
182600 1654N 11114W 6967 03139 0027 +100 +078 237041 041 999 999 03
182630 1654N 11112W 6967 03138 0027 +100 +078 234043 044 045 007 03
182700 1654N 11109W 6969 03139 0030 +099 +077 234044 044 999 999 03
182730 1654N 11107W 6970 03139 0033 +098 +077 230045 046 999 999 03
182800 1654N 11105W 6970 03139 0035 +095 +076 226047 047 045 007 03
$$
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#385 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:41 pm

760
URPN15 KNHC 191837
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 40 20091019
182830 1654N 11102W 6965 03146 0036 +095 +076 224045 046 999 999 03
182900 1654N 11100W 6966 03147 0041 +091 +075 225046 046 042 008 03
182930 1654N 11058W 6967 03143 0042 +090 +074 226046 047 999 999 03
183000 1654N 11055W 6970 03141 0041 +093 +073 223046 047 999 999 03
183030 1654N 11053W 6965 03149 0044 +093 +073 222044 045 999 999 03
183100 1655N 11051W 6976 03136 0047 +093 +073 218047 047 999 999 03
183130 1655N 11049W 6965 03149 0041 +095 +073 214048 048 999 999 03
183200 1655N 11047W 6969 03148 0041 +096 +073 216049 049 999 999 03
183230 1655N 11045W 6966 03150 0042 +095 +074 215048 049 999 999 03
183300 1655N 11043W 6967 03149 0040 +096 +075 213049 049 999 999 03
183330 1654N 11041W 6967 03149 0043 +094 +076 214048 049 999 999 03
183400 1654N 11039W 6970 03148 0050 +088 +077 213049 052 999 999 03
183430 1654N 11037W 6962 03155 0042 +095 +075 210050 051 999 999 03
183500 1655N 11035W 6968 03147 0046 +092 +074 208052 053 999 999 03
183530 1655N 11032W 6966 03153 0050 +090 +073 206050 050 029 008 03
183600 1656N 11030W 6969 03150 0050 +091 +073 204050 051 030 008 00
183630 1657N 11029W 6966 03152 0051 +090 +073 204050 051 030 008 03
183700 1657N 11027W 6968 03151 0051 +092 +073 202049 050 031 008 03
183730 1657N 11025W 6967 03151 0049 +093 +073 201049 050 033 008 00
183800 1658N 11023W 6963 03164 0050 +097 +073 202049 049 033 008 03
$$
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#386 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:43 pm

841
WHXX01 KMIA 191818
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1818 UTC MON OCT 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091019 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091019 1800 091020 0600 091020 1800 091021 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 111.5W 19.4N 113.1W 19.6N 113.9W 18.9N 113.6W
BAMD 18.2N 111.5W 19.7N 111.8W 21.3N 111.2W 23.2N 109.6W
BAMM 18.2N 111.5W 19.1N 112.3W 19.7N 112.1W 20.1N 110.7W
LBAR 18.2N 111.5W 19.5N 111.8W 20.8N 112.0W 22.3N 111.7W
SHIP 90KTS 67KTS 54KTS 46KTS
DSHP 90KTS 67KTS 54KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091021 1800 091022 1800 091023 1800 091024 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 111.9W 19.1N 109.3W 20.2N 109.8W 21.6N 112.7W
BAMD 25.5N 106.9W 30.6N 96.2W 38.5N 81.3W 44.3N 60.8W
BAMM 21.0N 108.9W 23.5N 104.6W 24.7N 97.7W 27.9N 83.7W
LBAR 24.3N 110.4W 28.2N 105.3W 32.1N 94.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 43KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 43KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 111.5W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 110.9W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 109.0W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 972MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 235NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 150NM

$$
NNNN

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#387 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:51 pm

333
URPN15 KNHC 191847
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 41 20091019
183830 1659N 11021W 6964 03160 0074 +078 +076 194051 053 999 999 03
183900 1701N 11022W 6972 03155 0052 +094 +076 199051 052 028 018 03
183930 1702N 11024W 6970 03146 0047 +093 +075 200049 049 028 008 00
184000 1703N 11025W 6967 03152 0049 +090 +073 199049 049 028 008 00
184030 1704N 11027W 6965 03151 0043 +094 +072 197047 048 030 008 03
184100 1705N 11028W 6967 03149 0043 +094 +071 199049 049 029 007 03
184130 1707N 11030W 6967 03148 0040 +096 +070 202048 049 028 007 00
184200 1708N 11031W 6965 03149 0041 +094 +070 203049 049 028 007 00
184230 1709N 11033W 6966 03146 0035 +098 +071 204048 049 028 008 00
184300 1711N 11034W 6968 03144 0030 +101 +071 204050 051 029 008 00
184330 1712N 11035W 6967 03141 0025 +103 +071 207051 051 030 008 00
184400 1713N 11037W 6966 03140 0032 +095 +072 208052 053 029 008 00
184430 1715N 11038W 6967 03139 0032 +094 +072 209052 053 029 008 00
184500 1716N 11039W 6967 03135 0028 +096 +071 206052 052 028 008 00
184530 1717N 11041W 6968 03135 0027 +096 +071 206050 051 028 007 00
184600 1719N 11042W 6965 03138 0018 +102 +071 210052 052 027 008 00
184630 1720N 11043W 6957 03142 0014 +102 +070 212052 052 029 008 00
184700 1721N 11045W 6973 03124 0015 +100 +070 213053 053 031 007 00
184730 1723N 11046W 6963 03131 0017 +096 +070 214054 054 030 007 00
184800 1724N 11048W 6970 03122 0016 +095 +070 212053 053 030 007 00
$$
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#388 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:00 pm

042
URPN15 KNHC 191857
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 42 20091019
184830 1726N 11049W 6967 03120 0012 +096 +069 213052 053 031 008 00
184900 1727N 11051W 6966 03123 0008 +098 +069 215051 052 031 008 00
184930 1729N 11052W 6967 03116 0004 +098 +069 218051 052 033 008 00
185000 1729N 11052W 6967 03116 0003 +095 +069 218053 054 032 008 00
185030 1732N 11055W 6965 03112 9993 +101 +069 218054 054 032 009 00
185100 1733N 11057W 6967 03109 9991 +100 +069 218055 056 034 008 00
185130 1734N 11058W 6966 03105 9985 +103 +069 220057 057 034 008 00
185200 1736N 11100W 6968 03099 9986 +098 +070 218059 059 035 008 00
185230 1737N 11101W 6967 03098 9978 +102 +070 223059 059 036 008 00
185300 1739N 11103W 6967 03095 9981 +096 +071 220060 060 037 008 00
185330 1740N 11104W 6967 03091 9974 +098 +071 223060 060 037 008 00
185400 1741N 11105W 6967 03085 9967 +098 +072 227063 064 037 008 00
185430 1743N 11107W 6967 03080 9953 +106 +072 227064 064 038 008 00
185500 1744N 11108W 6967 03075 9951 +102 +073 228064 065 040 008 00
185530 1745N 11110W 6976 03062 9956 +095 +074 228068 070 042 009 00
185600 1747N 11111W 6961 03072 9948 +094 +074 228070 072 044 009 00
185630 1748N 11112W 6970 03059 9943 +096 +074 229069 069 046 009 00
185700 1749N 11113W 6965 03057 9941 +094 +074 229066 067 047 009 00
185730 1750N 11114W 6971 03049 9934 +095 +074 231065 066 046 008 00
185800 1751N 11116W 6967 03049 9929 +095 +074 232066 067 047 008 00
$$
;


Going back towards the center
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#389 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:10 pm

472
URPN15 KNHC 191907
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 43 20091019
185830 1752N 11117W 6967 03042 9923 +094 +073 233066 068 046 009 00
185900 1753N 11118W 6969 03033 9916 +095 +072 233064 065 048 009 00
185930 1755N 11119W 6967 03031 9908 +099 +072 230064 065 050 008 03
190000 1756N 11120W 6967 03023 9893 +102 +072 230065 065 051 008 00
190030 1757N 11121W 6965 03018 9874 +112 +075 228063 063 049 009 00
190100 1759N 11123W 6962 03018 9867 +114 +078 228062 063 052 008 00
190130 1800N 11124W 6974 02997 9845 +126 +081 231063 065 053 008 00
190200 1801N 11125W 6967 02994 9840 +121 +085 233066 067 053 007 00
190230 1802N 11126W 6969 02986 9832 +122 +089 235067 068 053 008 00
190300 1804N 11127W 6965 02986 9825 +119 +093 237069 069 051 008 03
190330 1805N 11128W 6964 02977 9818 +116 +096 233067 068 051 008 00
190400 1806N 11129W 6973 02959 9813 +115 +098 232064 065 051 008 00
190430 1808N 11130W 6965 02959 9792 +124 +099 235061 063 050 008 00
190500 1809N 11131W 6966 02949 9783 +125 +101 236055 058 049 008 00
190530 1810N 11132W 6969 02940 9766 +134 +103 237051 052 047 009 00
190600 1812N 11134W 6970 02933 9754 +138 +105 240049 049 041 009 03
190630 1813N 11135W 6963 02937 9744 +142 +109 239041 044 035 009 03
190700 1814N 11136W 6968 02928 9744 +137 +112 236032 036 032 008 00
190730 1816N 11137W 6971 02919 9740 +137 +115 247018 023 028 009 03
190800 1817N 11138W 6967 02920 9737 +136 +117 278007 010 025 022 00
$$
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#390 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:21 pm

907
URPN15 KNHC 191917
AF302 0120E RICK HDOB 44 20091019
190830 1819N 11139W 6967 02921 9733 +142 +118 042008 011 022 008 00
190900 1820N 11140W 6967 02924 9733 +144 +120 063020 024 024 008 00
190930 1822N 11141W 6966 02935 9740 +144 +121 069029 031 999 999 03
191000 1823N 11140W 6966 02931 9747 +133 +123 072031 032 031 009 03
191030 1824N 11138W 6965 02931 9764 +119 +119 081032 033 036 010 00
191100 1825N 11137W 6967 02936 9772 +116 +116 087033 033 039 010 00
191130 1826N 11136W 6969 02937 9778 +117 +117 098036 037 041 010 00
191200 1827N 11135W 6968 02944 9799 +104 +104 105037 038 047 010 00
191230 1828N 11133W 6968 02950 9814 +101 +101 110041 044 053 011 00
191300 1829N 11132W 6963 02967 9820 +102 +102 110046 047 053 011 00
191330 1830N 11131W 6965 02968 9843 +085 +085 116049 051 054 013 01
191400 1831N 11130W 6965 02978 9871 +079 +079 123053 054 056 016 00
191430 1833N 11129W 6969 02984 9875 +081 +081 125056 057 055 021 00
191500 1834N 11127W 6968 02993 9887 +081 +078 127059 060 049 030 00
191530 1835N 11126W 6968 03000 9889 +086 +072 127062 064 048 032 00
191600 1836N 11125W 6965 03011 9907 +075 +067 134061 062 057 026 00
191630 1837N 11124W 6968 03011 9916 +076 +062 141064 067 056 023 00
191700 1837N 11124W 6968 03011 9918 +082 +058 146062 064 061 017 00
191730 1839N 11121W 6970 03024 9929 +078 +055 150066 068 062 017 00
191800 1841N 11119W 6969 03032 9941 +074 +052 152065 067 061 017 00
$$
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973 mb
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#391 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:23 pm

Old - first pass:

398
URPN12 KNHC 191825 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202009
A. 19/17:34:50Z
B. 18 deg 10 min N
111 deg 33 min W
C. 700 mb 0 m
D. 68 kt
E. 018 deg 18 nm
F. 133 deg 74 kt
G. 034 deg 47 nm
H. EXTRAP 975 mb
I. 9 C / 3049 m
J. 13 C / 3051 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0120E RICK OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NE QUAD 17:20:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 217 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
Corrected for Extrapolated SLP
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#392 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:46 pm

Linda also collapsed quickly once it weakened...this seems to be a total carbon copy of that storm 12 years ago...
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Derek Ortt

#393 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:55 pm

there is nothing to support more than 65KT at the present time. 90KT is just not in line with the data
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

#394 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:20 pm

Image

Good for BC
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#395 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:31 pm

URPN12 KNHC 191934
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202009
A. 19/19:08:20Z
B. 18 deg 18 min N
111 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2883 m
D. 53 kt
E. 142 deg 20 nm
F. 228 deg 72 kt
G. 139 deg 41 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 10 C / 3049 m
J. 15 C / 3042 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0120E RICK OB 16
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NE QUAD 19:20:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 76 KT NE QUAD 19:20:10Z
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

#396 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:37 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 192035
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT RICK HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 76
KT WAS FOUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHILE THE PEAK SFMR
WIND WAS 68 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT
85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE SOME OF
THE DEEPER CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 50 MI EAST OF THE CENTER. DATA
FROM THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 50-KT AND 34-KT WIND FIELDS
HAVE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AS THE
PREVIOUSLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE INNER CORE BEGINS TO
RELAX.

THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW 15 TO 20 KT
OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RICK. THE SHIPS FORECASTS THIS TO
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING EVEN
FURTHER. THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 24
HOURS...AND THEN LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS AND LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME.
THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW CONTINUED WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL
AND HWRF HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY OR EVEN SHOW STRENGTHENING ON
DAY 2...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT THAT
RICK WILL BE MOVING INTO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
330/06. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RICK
ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT
RECURVES AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.5N 111.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 19.2N 111.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 21.9N 109.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 108.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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Derek Ortt

#397 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:37 pm

have no clue at all why NHC went with 85KT

nothing suggests 85KT at all

I no longer expect this to strike Baja as a hurricane. if the current weakening continues, maybe not even as a storm
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#398 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:40 pm

Even if the assumption is made that the strongest winds were not sampled (the data supports 70 kt), there is no reason to go higher than about 75 kt.
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

#399 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:00 pm

How the mighty have fallen. It was once an impressive Category 5 hurricane, now it is barely a hurricane.
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

#400 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:10 pm

NHC always seems to be slow in weakening a storm. 85kts is extremely generous for a system with an exposed center. At the rate it's going, and with all that dry air and shear it's facing, it may be a weak TS when it reaches Baja. Good news for them.
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