CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

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CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

#1 Postby wyq614 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 7:49 am

Image

CODE YELLOW

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1250 MI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MILES PER HOUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. (From NHC)

Initial Position 11.5N 136.2W
Last edited by wyq614 on Sat Oct 17, 2009 4:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: Invest 94E

#2 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 16, 2009 7:58 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910161245
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2009, DB, O, 2009101612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942009
EP, 94, 2009101512, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1303W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2009101518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1317W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2009101600, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1327W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2009101606, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1342W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2009101612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1362W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
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Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:00 am

ah... the Hawaiian Hurricane looks to be taking shape
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#4 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:43 am

Satellite indicates moderate SW winds aloft (shear) once it reaches 150W. You really think conditions will allow for it to become a hurricane and reach Hawaii as a hurricane? We do have a major client there.

Latest GFS has a weak storm passing well SW of the islands. European develops nothing. Canadian develops a storm, like with anything in the tropics. 00Z doesn't go out far enough to show if it's taking it to Hawaii or south of there.
Last edited by wxman57 on Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#5 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:08 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#6 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:13 am

I'm not sure if it will reach hurricane strength but a tropical storm is possible. Canadian has been consistent predicting a hurricane and Euro has been predicting a tropical depression, so a tropical storm is my guess. It needs to stay south of the islands to avoid the strongest wind shear.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:19 am

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:20 am

236
WHXX01 KMIA 161246
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942009) 20091016 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091016 1200 091017 0000 091017 1200 091018 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 136.2W 11.4N 138.3W 11.6N 140.3W 12.2N 142.2W
BAMD 11.5N 136.2W 11.7N 138.8W 11.9N 141.2W 12.3N 143.6W
BAMM 11.5N 136.2W 11.6N 138.6W 11.8N 141.0W 12.2N 143.4W
LBAR 11.5N 136.2W 11.4N 139.0W 11.5N 142.0W 11.9N 145.2W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091018 1200 091019 1200 091020 1200 091021 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 144.3W 15.3N 149.8W 18.1N 154.6W 21.2N 157.8W
BAMD 12.9N 146.0W 14.8N 150.5W 17.1N 153.2W 18.8N 154.6W
BAMM 12.8N 146.0W 15.3N 151.3W 18.1N 155.4W 21.1N 157.9W
LBAR 12.4N 148.5W 14.2N 155.0W 15.7N 159.0W 17.2N 160.0W
SHIP 38KTS 44KTS 43KTS 40KTS
DSHP 38KTS 44KTS 43KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 136.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 132.7W DIRM12 = 254DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 130.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#9 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:24 am

Models do see the increasing shear past 48 hours. That's why SHIPS is only going for a weak TS:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#10 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:34 am

Remember, be very wary of using simple trajectory models (BAMs) for a recurving storm out of the very deep tropics. Here's where the GFS takes it. I set the pressure field to 1/4 millibar increments. 1008mb low.

Image

EC shows nothing near Hawaii:
Image
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#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:24 am

right now, a TS seems most likely. Satellite also shows increasing shear

GFS shows the system turning more to the north after it reaches the point shown above. Shows more of a usual Hawaiian threat than the Felicia threat earlier this season
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:42 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RICK...LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1250 MI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MILES PER HOUR. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM RICK ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON RICK ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMEP5.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:42 pm

400 AM HST FRI OCT 16 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A tropical disturbance with accompanying showers and thunderstorms is more than 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and is moving west near 15 mph. The nascent system will move west of 140 degrees west longitude later today or tonight, entering the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility. The feature may develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 to 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Sunday morning.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#14 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:16 pm

Not much to it as of 18Z. Vorticity center has no convection near it. The area I have circled is what is being identified as 20E, not the storms to the W-WNW.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:43 pm

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 94, 2009101618, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1380W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:46 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 161844
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942009) 20091016 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091016 1800 091017 0600 091017 1800 091018 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 138.0W 11.0N 140.2W 11.2N 142.3W 12.0N 144.4W
BAMD 11.1N 138.0W 11.1N 141.1W 11.2N 144.2W 11.6N 147.3W
BAMM 11.1N 138.0W 11.1N 140.7W 11.3N 143.2W 11.8N 145.8W
LBAR 11.1N 138.0W 11.1N 141.2W 11.2N 144.4W 11.6N 147.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091018 1800 091019 1800 091020 1800 091021 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 147.0W 15.9N 153.0W 19.5N 158.0W 22.4N 160.7W
BAMD 12.3N 150.2W 15.0N 155.2W 17.7N 158.7W 20.6N 159.2W
BAMM 12.7N 148.5W 15.7N 153.7W 19.2N 157.8W 22.5N 159.4W
LBAR 12.3N 151.2W 14.2N 157.7W 16.4N 161.1W 19.1N 161.2W
SHIP 55KTS 62KTS 58KTS 52KTS
DSHP 55KTS 62KTS 58KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 138.0W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 134.2W DIRM12 = 260DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 131.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:25 pm

400 PM HST FRI OCT 16 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A tropical disturbance with showers and thunderstorms about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is moving to the west near 15 mph. The disturbance will move west of 140 degrees west longitude later today, entering the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility. The disturbance may develop into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday morning.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2009 8:21 am

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1235 UTC SAT OCT 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP962009) 20091017 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091017 1200 091018 0000 091018 1200 091019 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 141.2W 11.6N 143.6W 12.3N 146.0W 13.4N 148.7W
BAMD 11.2N 141.2W 11.5N 144.1W 11.9N 147.0W 12.7N 149.7W
BAMM 11.2N 141.2W 11.6N 143.7W 12.0N 146.3W 13.0N 148.9W
LBAR 11.2N 141.2W 11.4N 143.7W 12.0N 146.6W 12.8N 149.4W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091019 1200 091020 1200 091021 1200 091022 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 151.8W 17.8N 156.8W 20.5N 159.2W 21.5N 160.1W
BAMD 13.9N 152.3W 16.3N 156.3W 18.3N 158.0W 18.1N 158.0W
BAMM 14.4N 151.5W 17.4N 155.5W 20.4N 157.8W 21.5N 158.5W
LBAR 14.0N 152.3W 17.0N 156.6W 19.1N 157.9W 21.1N 157.6W
SHIP 39KTS 46KTS 44KTS 44KTS
DSHP 39KTS 46KTS 44KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 141.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 139.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 136.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C

#19 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 10:31 am

Looks quite unimpressive on satellite today.
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Derek Ortt

#20 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 17, 2009 1:34 pm

models also backing off of this. May not materialize now
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