CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6627
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEKI (03C)

#101 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:54 pm

Macrocane wrote:Does Anyone know where the discussion and advisory 7 are? I hate the CPHC site is so disoganized as an opposite to Neki wich is very organized :wink:

I agree, I don't like the way it's presented. There are glitches with the archive graphics and some text products weren't showing up in order. They recently changed it but it isn't any better IMO.

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks to be a pinhole eye trying to form.

Why do you keep posting this for every tropical cyclone that nears hurricane strength? Is it a running joke or gag? There was never any sign of a pinhole eye in both Hurricane Rick and Neki.

That typical Cpac hurricane look is now present so its definitively a hurricane. Has there been any Cpac native hurricanes since Ioke?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#102 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:57 pm


657
WTPA32 PHFO 210245
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2009

...STRENGTHENING HURRICANE NEKI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS....

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC....THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR JOHNSTON
ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.2 WEST OR ABOUT
625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 295 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. NEKI WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND DECREASE ITS FORWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.5N 165.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEKI (03C)

#103 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:00 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
That typical Cpac hurricane look is now present so its definitively a hurricane. Has there been any Cpac native hurricanes since Ioke?


This is the first hurricane since Ioke.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6627
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEKI (03C)

#104 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:27 pm

Macrocane wrote:This is the first hurricane since Ioke.

Thanks.

I can't see the discussion posted on the CPHC site yet and it's 27 minutes over 11 pm EDT.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138883
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#105 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:29 pm

Discussion came out at 11:29 PM EDT.

WTPA42 PHFO 210311
TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2009

NEKI STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE DAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
FORMED A RAGGED EYE. FIXES FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC ALL CAME IN
AT A 4.0...AND CIMSS ADT CALCULATED A CI OF 4.1. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT.

NEKI IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...320/13...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MID LATITUDE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING WITHIN A
BROAD NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM BETWEEN 30N AND 40N WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THAT RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG 25N
TO THE NORTH OF NEKI. AS A RESULT...NEKI WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
GENERAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BUT STEADILY DIVERGES THROUGH
TIME. THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT...PUTTING IT ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE TVCN...HWRF...AND GFDL. WITH CONFIDENCE
BUILDING THAT NEKI WILL PASS EAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

NEKI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SST VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 27 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE WITH LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN ANTICYCLONE SITTING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING TO NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY 72
HOURS...THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL BREAK DOWN AND INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO CEASE AS NEKI APPROACHES THE AREA OF TROUGHING
ALOFT. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF NEKI HAS BEEN HELD BACK SLIGHTLY TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF...WHICH SHOWS A SIMILAR INTENSITY
TREND AS THE FORECAST.

BEYOND 72 HOURS...NEKI IS FORECAST TO ENTER A REGION OF WEAK
STEERING AND MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WHERE THE SPREAD OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES CONSIDERABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND STEER
NEKI ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GFS...HRWF...AND
GFDL ARE SUGGESTING THAT PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGHING WILL INHIBIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE. THUS...THE WESTWARD TURN HAS BEEN
ELIMINATED IN FAVOR OF A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION AND GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DURING THE WEEKEND NEKI IS FORECAST TO
BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT BETWEEN FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND LAYSAN ISLAND. LARGE
SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SMALL ISLANDS AND
SHOALS WITHIN THE MONUMENT AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 15.5N 165.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 16.8N 166.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 18.2N 167.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 19.3N 167.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 20.4N 168.3W 95 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 22.2N 169.3W 95 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 23.6N 170.3W 90 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 25.1N 171.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER WROE

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#106 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:11 pm

Derek, can you run a model on the system thats close to it?

Yes the CPHC is extremely disorganized while the NHC issues advisories before stated at lease 20-30 mins.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Derek Ortt

#107 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:40 pm

no reason to run a model on this system. Not a threat to land, nor is it needed for a field program
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#108 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:no reason to run a model on this system. Not a threat to land, nor is it needed for a field program

Okay thanks anyway :).
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#109 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:39 am

Image

Nice eye there.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6627
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#110 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:20 am

The eyewall is strengthening rapidly as the reds and blacks on AVN are wrapping around an increasingly warm eye. The eye is fairly small.
0 likes   

arkestra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 88
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 7:24 pm
Location: The Old Continent

Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#111 Postby arkestra » Wed Oct 21, 2009 4:09 am

I tracked Ioke in 2006... it's good to see a CPAC hurricane again (on the Johnston atoll again!). They are my favorites... Shy, slow, rare but powerful.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#112 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 21, 2009 4:38 am

Image

I dont think Hawaii is clear of Neki yet.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#113 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:08 am

729
WTPA42 PHFO 210929
TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2009

NEKI HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE AND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY.
FIXES FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC WERE 4.0...4.5 AND 4.5. WE HAVE
MADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY 75 KT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A
VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 35 KT WINDS EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER
OUT ON THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDES OF THE STORM. WE HAVE MADE
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WIND RADII TO REFLECT THIS PATTERN.

NEKI CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT...WITH MORE OF THE MODELS SHOWING NEKI GRADUALLY RECURVING.
THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF TROUGHS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS DIGGING TOWARD THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL VEER AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS AND NEKI WILL
CURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO MOST
OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS.

NEKI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SST VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 27 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE WITH LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.
THOSE CHANGES WILL CAUSE NEKI TO STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS.

THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP NEKI FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON
ISLAND TO KEEP TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM REACHING THE ISLAND
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK TO WARRANT KEEPING THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON. BY 72 HOURS...NEKI MAY
BE CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT
BETWEEN FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND LISIANSKI ISLAND. LARGE SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY REACH THE MONUMENT AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 16.3N 166.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 166.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 19.0N 167.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.6N 168.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 168.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 23.8N 168.9W 100 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 169.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 169.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#114 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:30 am

Image

It's good to watch the CPAC in El Niño years
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#115 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:30 am

Notice a major error on here? 90 mph is not Category 2...although it should be soon...

WTPA32 PHFO 211208
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
200 AM HST WED OCT 21 2009

...HURRICANE NEKI CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.6 WEST OR ABOUT
630 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 235 MILES
EAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. NEKI WILL
GRADUALLY CURVE TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS
NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. NEKI
WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

ANYONE NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND OR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR NEKI. A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
NATIONAL MONUMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IF NOT...THE WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND WILL PROBABLY BE
CANCELLED.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.7N 166.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#116 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:41 am

CP, 03, 2009102112, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1664W, 85, 975, HU, 34, NEQ
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#117 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:08 am

has turned to the north. really lucky this moved farther west than initially forecast
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#118 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:09 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#119 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:32 am

Image

Small eye
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#120 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:34 am

WTPA42 PHFO 211448
TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 AM HST WED OCT 21 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION FOR
HURRICANE NEKI OVERNIGHT. FIXES FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB AT 1200
UTC WERE 4.5...4.5 AND 5.0. THE HURRICANE LOOKED EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE JUST AFTER 1200 UTC. WE SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90
KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH 35 KT WINDS EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER OUT ON THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST SIDES OF THE STORM. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES
BETWEEN NEKI AND A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE HAVE KEPT THE
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN OUR FORECAST.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEKI HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND
TAKEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS A
TROUGH ALOFT IS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT MORE CONSISTENT THAN 6
HOURS AGO WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING NEKI GRADUALLY RECURVING. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK FARTHER A BIT FARTHER TO THE
RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK.

NEKI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SST VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 27 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE WITH LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.
THOSE CHANGES WILL CAUSE NEKI TO STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS.

THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP NEKI FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON
ISLAND TO KEEP TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM REACHING THE ISLAND
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK TO WARRANT KEEPING THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON. OUR FORECAST TRACK HAS
NEKI MOVING THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND LISIANSKI ISLAND IN 72 HOURS. LARGE
SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY REACH THE MONUMENT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 17.0N 166.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.2N 167.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 19.8N 167.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 21.2N 168.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.4N 168.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 24.6N 168.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 27.5N 168.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 30.0N 167.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests