ATL : INVEST 94L

[cycloneye]

Personally, I don't think it looks healthy this morning. It does not have the curvature it had yesterday, and it has less convection. Amateur eyes, of course lol.

This will be a slow proccess as the models haved been progging.It may be during next weekend to early next week that we may see something more organized down there if it does so eventually.

[jinftl]

I was going to say, aren't the models showing development still a several days down the road? Not sure how the system looks right now is indicative of much more than just that.

Personally, I don't think it looks healthy this morning. It does not have the curvature it had yesterday, and it has less convection. Amateur eyes, of course lol.

This will be a slow proccess as the models haved been progging.It may be during next weekend to early next week that we may see something more organized down there if it does so eventually.

[cycloneye]

They know this will take a few days to organize so that is why there is no recon yet for this area.

NOUS42 KNHC 201330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 20 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[tolakram]

I think this will simply move inland.

make your own link .. link

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10

[cycloneye]

Below is the discussion about the SW Caribbean area by Dr Jeff Masters.To me it is reasonable what he is saying at this time.I say at this time because things change constantly in the atmosphere and especially in the tropics.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:59 PM GMT on October 20, 2009

A broad 1010 mb low pressure area has developed near 13N 81W in the Western Caribbean, about 300 miles east of the Nicaraguan coast. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and not even much of a shift in wind direction associated with the low. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which will aid development. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 94L has not increased in intensity or areal coverage much over the past 24 hours, but it has begun getting more organized, with some curved bands beginning to form, indicating that a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere may be starting to spin up. The disturbance will bring 3-day rain totals of 4 - 8 inches to eastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras through Thursday, as 94L moves slowly northwestward. As the storm organizes, it may begin to pull moisture from the Pacific across Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, resulting in flooding rains of 4 - 8 inches along the Pacific slopes of those countries Wednesday through Friday.

The forecast for 94L

The SHIPS model forecasts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. Most of the models foresee a path taking 94L very close to the coast of Nicaragua and then along the north coast of Honduras, and the storm may move inland over one of these countries before it has time to develop into a tropical depression. Due to proximity to land, I give 94L just a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization, Friday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Wednesday or Thursday. The ECMWF model foresees that 94L will move northwards next week across Cuba and threaten South Florida, but none of the other models are predicting this. It is too early to know if 94L will be a threat to more than just Central America.

[jinftl]

As always, a detailed and informative discussion from Dr. Masters.

His key points:

- The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 94L has not increased in intensity or areal coverage much over the past 24 hours, but it has begun getting more organized, with some curved bands beginning to form, indicating that a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere may be starting to spin up.

- The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land.

- Given 94L's current state of disorganization, Friday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression.

- The ECMWF model foresees that 94L will move northwards next week across Cuba and threaten South Florida, but none of the other models are predicting this.

- It is too early to know if 94L will be a threat to more than just Central America.

[wxman57]

the CIMSS site primarily uses the NOGAPS model for its map, not GFS

Well, that's another problem. NOGAPS hasn't demonstrated itself to be a very reliable model.

[wxman57]

One issue I'd have with Dr. Masters' discussion was the comment on SHIPS/DSHP intensity and shear guidance. The model is using the BAMM track which takes the system inland into Central America.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.3
LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.3 82.8 83.3 83.8 84.6 85.3 85.8 86.2 86.9 87.7 88.7 89.9

If it tracks northward toward western Cuba per the ECMWF, then the shear values and projected intensity would be quite different.

I'd like to see him commit to a 7-day track on this disturbance as I'm having to do with our clients this morning. I chose to follow the ECMWF, somewhat, taking it northward then NE near western Cuba, cutting across the FL Straits early next week then out to sea. Just a preliminary track, but going with the EC and climatology seems like the best choice for now. Probably about an equal chance of it not developing and tracking west into Central America.

[Sanibel]

I think EPAC has it if it forms at all. The prevailing negativity is eating into it.

[cycloneye]

I only posting this run of the NAM model as information to the members as this model is not good for the tropics. In this 12z run,it has disturbance over Jamaica in 84 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[jinftl]

prevailing negativity on this board anyways....any development is progged for late in the week. Land...more than shear....appear to be the biggest factor that could prohibit development. Land is certainly not a 2009 season only issue!

Shear forecasts, sst, tchp, moisture all seem to be lining up for something to get going.....and then there is the question of land interaction.

I think EPAC has it if it forms at all. The prevailing negativity is eating into it.

[Blown Away]

Wow, we are talking about a system that may last beyond 48 hours! Lately it's been Invest, TD, TS, Remnant low, all in a 48 hour period.

[MGC]

Looks to be cyclonic rotation starting to take shape off Nicaragua this morning but it is likely a mid level circulation that could soon reach the surface. I think the odds of a TC developing are increasing. Shear looks low enough, ocean heat content is high....as long as the disturbance stays over the ocean then this might spin up. I think it will slowly track north and turn to the NE and cross Cuba and the Bahamas.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

The intensity of the trough that could take this system NE-ward is going to be key. For South Florida it's very important.

Floyd, 1987:



Michelle, 2001:

[jinftl]

Like clockworks it seems...Fantasy Fest and the tropics!

Looks to be cyclonic rotation starting to take shape off Nicaragua this morning but it is likely a mid level circulation that could soon reach the surface. I think the odds of a TC developing are increasing. Shear looks low enough, ocean heat content is high....as long as the disturbance stays over the ocean then this might spin up. I think it will slowly track north and turn to the NE and cross Cuba and the Bahamas.....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

Here in SFL, I am watching this one intently, but I am not worried yet. There are still quite a few unknowns with this system. Hell, it has not even formed a center yet, its way to soon to tell what the potential future of this system cold be.

[wxman57]

That Floyd track is very much like our first guess of a 7-day track, HURAKAN. Confidence isn't high in any track at this time, though.

[fci]

I know that 94L certainly has my attention since it is in the ideal location, time of year, sea surface temps,etc.... to be a concern for South Florida which I am selfishly fixated on.

So, this last gasp of 2009's quiet season is of great interest to me and I will closely monitor the thoughts of Wxman, Derek, Watkins and the other experts on S2K.....

[wyq614]

Paloma took almost 7 days to organize, we must have patience.. And if my memory doesn't fail, there were models predicating the entry of Pre-Paloma to Central America, too.

Monitorear es siempre prudente e importante... 94L merece la atención de todos. Especialmente de Cuba y EE.UU

by the way, the Chinese students of the next course (my successors) we arrive in La Habana on October 22nd. It is probable that they experience a cyclone attack..