WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

I became conscious about this disturbance and so I came around a weather site named typhoon2000.ph and there was a forecast according to ECMWF. It says:

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to move Westward in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.3N lon 154.0E...or about 1,025 km ESE of Guam...2,070 km East of P.A.R...3,085 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-NCR-Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Oh, I forgot. I am new in this site. Haha It's nice to be here.

Welcome! You'll learn a lot from the experts in this site

[dexterlabio]

forecast for October 30, 2009

forecast for October 31, 2009

forecast for November 1, 2009


These are ECMWF models, but take note that these models change every 12 hours, so a change in forecast track is possible.

I don't want to be a bearer of bad news for you guys. You know, ECMWF also predicted Lupit to hit Luzon, but it only moved very close to Northern Luzon then changed course dramatically. I dunno if this disturbance will have the same fate as Lupit.

FYI if this tropical disturbance develops, it will be named MIRINAE, and if it enters PAR, it will be named locally as SANTI... uh wait, what an irony for the name, SANTI is forecast to hit the Philippines in All Sain'ts Day o_O It will be quite similar to STY Angela (Rosing) which made landfall in Bicol-Southern Luzon area last Halloween of 1994.

[WindRunner]

I became conscious about this disturbance and so I came around a weather site named typhoon2000.ph and there was a forecast according to ECMWF. It says:

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to move Westward in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.3N lon 154.0E...or about 1,025 km ESE of Guam...2,070 km East of P.A.R...3,085 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-NCR-Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Oh, I forgot. I am new in this site. Haha It's nice to be here.

Nice to have you in here! I know I'm just coming back from a multi-year absence from the site, so it's good to see that we still have new members who also aren't hesitant to dive in

[WindRunner]

Since you posted the Euro, I'll comment on those maps as well...

It looks like that track is a couple hundred miles farther south than what I remember it showing about 36-48 hours ago, which is not a good sign for the Philippines at all. The only suspicious part of that forecast is that it doesn't seem to weaken the circulation as it traverses southern Luzon. Granted, that is a somewhat flatter area, but the terrain and land should still have some effect (or at least one would think - perhaps the waterways in the region offset the presence of flat land, much like the Everglades often do in south Florida?). I'll take a look at our high-res Euro data tomorrow to see how it's been trending, because that track does look suspiciously zonal (flat).

[dexterlabio]

Welcome! You'll learn a lot from the experts in this site

Thanks I came on this site when I wanted to gather info about the coming of PARMA and LUPIT, and I must say that you are all great. It is just now when I had the time to register.

[oaba09]

forecast for October 30, 2009

forecast for October 31, 2009

forecast for November 1, 2009


These are ECMWF models, but take note that these models change every 12 hours, so a change in forecast track is possible.

I don't want to be a bearer of bad news for you guys. You know, ECMWF also predicted Lupit to hit Luzon, but it only moved very close to Northern Luzon then changed course dramatically. I dunno if this disturbance will have the same fate as Lupit.

FYI if this tropical disturbance develops, it will be named MIRINAE, and if it enters PAR, it will be named locally as SANTI... uh wait, what an irony for the name, SANTI is forecast to hit the Philippines in All Sain'ts Day o_O It will be quite similar to STY Angela (Rosing) which made landfall in Bicol-Southern Luzon area last Halloween of 1994.

Yeah...I still remember STY Angela...I was still a kid back then and it pretty much passed right over our city.......That super typhoon is the reason why I became interested w/ Typhoons and Hurricanes.........

[oaba09]

Welcome! You'll learn a lot from the experts in this site

Thanks I came on this site when I wanted to gather info about the coming of PARMA and LUPIT, and I must say that you are all great. It is just now when I had the time to register.

I'm no expert...I'm just an observer trying to learn from the great people here

[dexterlabio]

Nice to have you in here! I know I'm just coming back from a multi-year absence from the site, so it's good to see that we still have new members who also aren't hesitant to dive in

Thank you! I've been lurking in this site since the time of PARMA, but it's just now that I was able to become a member It's great to be here and learn from you.

Anyway, what do you mean by "suspiciously zonal" regarding the ECMWF maps? Does that mean that the forecast has a lot of uncertainty? Just like what I've said, I'm having a doubt to this model because a week ago, they also had Lupit crossing Northern Luzon, but Lupit just came close and moved northeastwards.

Maybe it's still too early. I think we must keep an eye for this disturbance for now.

[WindRunner]

Nice to have you in here! I know I'm just coming back from a multi-year absence from the site, so it's good to see that we still have new members who also aren't hesitant to dive in

Thank you! I've been lurking in this site since the time of PARMA, but it's just now that I was able to become a member It's great to be here and learn from you.

Anyway, what do you mean by "suspiciously zonal" regarding the ECMWF maps? Does that mean that the forecast has a lot of uncertainty? Just like what I've said, I'm having a doubt to this model because a week ago, they also had Lupit crossing Northern Luzon, but Lupit just came close and moved northeastwards.

Maybe it's still too early. I think we must keep an eye for this disturbance for now.

Yeah, it seems odd for a tropical cyclone to move due westward for 6-7 days or potentially more, even in the heart of the season with a potentially overpowering subtropical ridge to its north. And of course it's no longer the heart of the summer, so any subtropical ridge that could even possibly force a typhoon on such a track is 1) shifted more poleward (north) and 2) less dominant, as increasingly stronger troughs and associated cold fronts will dive southward and create weaknesses within the subtropical ridge, allowing many more opportunities for tropical cyclones to (at the very least) be pulled farther north, if not recurve completely. I just don't see any ridiculously strong ridge in play here, so I don't particularly buy the fact that the ECMWF doesn't want the system to recurve - and that's actually really out of character for me, usually I love latching onto the Euro's solutions! But yes, we'll certainly have to keep an eye on this, especially once it gets within that 120 hour forecast window where other tropical guidance becomes available.

[ozonepete]

Welcome, dexterlabio! We have a lot of time to watch this one, and although it's way too early to make any predictions for where this is going or how strong it will be, I can assure you we'll be watching it closely and will try our best to guide you through it should it become a threat.

[dexterlabio]

I wish this disturbance will miss the Philippines, especially that it is forecast to strike our place (Metro Manila) sometime in Halloween. It's not nice to visit the cemetery or enjoy a Halloween party when it's rainy and windy all over the place.

Latest sat image of 95W, click http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMIR.JPG In my opinion, the system is getting a bit organized, because a while ago it seemed to be elongated.

Yeah, it seems odd for a tropical cyclone to move due westward for 6-7 days or potentially more, even in the heart of the season with a potentially overpowering subtropical ridge to its north. And of course it's no longer the heart of the summer, so any subtropical ridge that could even possibly force a typhoon on such a track is 1) shifted more poleward (north) and 2) less dominant, as increasingly stronger troughs and associated cold fronts will dive southward and create weaknesses within the subtropical ridge, allowing many more opportunities for tropical cyclones to (at the very least) be pulled farther north, if not recurve completely. I just don't see any ridiculously strong ridge in play here, so I don't particularly buy the fact that the ECMWF doesn't want the system to recurve - and that's actually really out of character for me, usually I love latching onto the Euro's solutions! But yes, we'll certainly have to keep an eye on this, especially once it gets within that 120 hour forecast window where other tropical guidance becomes available.

I agree. There are still other factors to be considered. Everytime that a storm is forecast to move westwards, there are some other systems popping out immediately and causing the storm to move poleward or sharply recurve. I just notice that everytime.

By the way, I remembered a storm in the Philippines many years ago, it is YOLING, and its path is very unusual because it moved west on its entire track until it emerged into the South China Sea. In case of this disturbance, as of now, subtropical ridge is not strong enough to drive the system away from the north.

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZOCT2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZOCT2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 250000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. SEE REF A
(WTPN31 PGTW 250300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 160.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 155.1E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTOR. A 241959Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NESTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH
15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WESTERLY
WIND BURST LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS ALSO UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Welcome, dexterlabio! We have a lot of time to watch this one, and although it's way too early to make any predictions for where this is going or how strong it will be, I can assure you we'll be watching it closely and will try our best to guide you through it should it become a threat.

Oh, thank you for that You know this is not good for our country after all the storms (Ketsana, Parma and Lupit) that came by. 2009 Pacific Typhoon Season is really becoming insane.

[ozonepete]

Welcome, dexterlabio! We have a lot of time to watch this one, and although it's way too early to make any predictions for where this is going or how strong it will be, I can assure you we'll be watching it closely and will try our best to guide you through it should it become a threat.

Oh, thank you for that You know this is not good for our country after all the storms (Ketsana, Parma and Lupit) that came by. 2009 Pacific Typhoon Season is really becoming insane.

Agreed. But hang onto your hat. It looks like it's not over yet.

[dexterlabio]

Our local weather agency, PAGASA, is unaware of this disturbance. In an interview, they said that there are currently NO weather disturbances/LPA's forming near the Philippine territory after Lupit, and again, they might be thinking that this is just some clusters of thunderstorm in the ocean. I dunno how my fellow people will react if the knew about this new potential system.

BTW, I got another latest forecast track, click http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.all.2009102500.tc_wpac_ll.single.gif

[Chacor]

I wouldn't be too hasty. 95W is still located around 160°E, which is very far away from PAGASA's area.

[oaba09]

Our local weather agency, PAGASA, is unaware of this disturbance. In an interview, they said that there are currently NO weather disturbances/LPA's forming near the Philippine territory after Lupit, and again, they might be thinking that this is just some clusters of thunderstorm in the ocean. I dunno how my fellow people will react if the knew about this new potential system.

BTW, I got another latest forecast track, click http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/mgtrack.2009102500.html

PAGASA usually issues warnings when a system is near the PAR...

[P.K.]

I think this LPA is well to the east of their area of interest hence what they are saying.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 157E WNW 10 KT.

[oaba09]

[dexterlabio]

I think the actual monitoring for this system might start Tuesday. Yeah 95W is still too far away from PAR, still a lot of possibilities.