WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[dexterlabio]

Is it just me, or the convection of 95W is somewhat decreasing. I am currently viewing JMA's satellite animation in the Pacific and it seems to be like that.

The current models indicate that 95W will only be a tropical depression or storm; at least that is how it is looking right now. But this is definitely an area of interest for us in NCR.

That will be good. However, if we take note of the vast ocean that it will traverse along the way, and the high ocean heat content as of the moment, it will be a serious threat somehow. JTWC on the other hand is saying that moderate wind shear is affecting the system, so it is still too early to tell of what it will become.

[oaba09]

Is it just me, or the convection of 95W is somewhat decreasing. I am currently viewing JMA's satellite animation in the Pacific and it seems to be like that.

The current models indicate that 95W will only be a tropical depression or storm; at least that is how it is looking right now. But this is definitely an area of interest for us in NCR.

That will be good. However, if we take note of the vast ocean that it will traverse along the way, and the high ocean heat content as of the moment, it will be a serious threat somehow. JTWC on the other hand is saying that moderate wind shear is affecting the system, so it is still too early to tell of what it will become.

Besides, weaker systems usually bring more rain so even if this doesn't develop into a full blown typhoon, we might still be in trouble...

[dexterlabio]

I want to surprise myself. I will return to this site and to my monitoring of this potential storm on Wednesday. If I will continue watching over this system, then my time will be consumed, especially that we are going to have our examinations this week Maybe more accurate forecast will appear by that time. Haha.

[cycloneye]

It looks kind of streched and that is good news for the first in line to see this and those are the Mariana islands that they wont deal with a monster typhoon.

I want to welcome dexterlabio to storm2k and enjoy all of what we have here.

[oaba09]

It looks kind of streched and that is good news for the first in line to see this and those are the Mariana islands that they wont deal with a monster typhoon.

I want to welcome dexterlabio to storm2k and enjoy all of what we have here.

In your personal opinion and analysis, do you think this will be a full blown typhoon when it reaches the Philippines or will this reach us as a TD or a TS?

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 160.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 155.1E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTOR. A 241959Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NESTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH
15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WESTERLY
WIND BURST LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS ALSO UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

In your personal opinion and analysis, do you think this will be a full blown typhoon when it reaches the Philippines or will this reach us as a TD or a TS?

As it has been said earlier,is too early to say what kind of system will be near Luzon a few days from today.If the models are correct,a typhoon may be what may be located near Luzon but we have to wait until it moves past the Mariana islands to see how the enviroment behaves as it changes constantly.

[oaba09]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 160.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 155.1E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHEAST SECTOR. A 241959Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NESTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH
15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WESTERLY
WIND BURST LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS ALSO UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

In your personal opinion and analysis, do you think this will be a full blown typhoon when it reaches the Philippines or will this reach us as a TD or a TS?

As it has been said earlier,is too early to say what kind of system will be near Luzon a few days from today.If the models are correct,a typhoon may be what may be located near Luzon but we have to wait until it pases the Mariana islands to see how the enviroment behaves as it changes constantly.

Thanks...If indeed this will be a typhoon, I hope that the gov't will be prepared....If what the models are saying are correct, the system should be near us this weekend........It's like we have a new system to track every week....

[drdavisjr]

Thanks...If indeed this will be a typhoon, I hope that the gov't will be prepared....If what the models are saying are correct, the system should be near us this weekend........It's like we have a new system to track every week....

Will all due respect to everyone in N. Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao; things take a real twist for the entire country when the National Capital Region is under threat, due to the economic and political systems based here; not to mention 12 milion lives. We'll keep an eye out for this one, for sure.

[oaba09]

Thanks...If indeed this will be a typhoon, I hope that the gov't will be prepared....If what the models are saying are correct, the system should be near us this weekend........It's like we have a new system to track every week....

Will all due respect to everyone in N. Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao; things take a real twist for the entire country when the National Capital Region is under threat, due to the economic and political systems based here; not to mention 12 milion lives. We'll keep an eye out for this one, for sure.

Exactly...The congress is here, the presidential house is here(Malacanang Palace), The supreme court is here, the 2 biggest business districts are here(ortigas and makati), and I believe the most populated region in the Philippines is metro manila.....

[cycloneye]

This was issued a few hours ago but I didnt saw it posted.

000
WWMY80 PGUM 250545
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
345 PM CHST SUN OCT 25 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-260700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
345 PM CHST SUN OCT 25 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 11N154E IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND MAY
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 MPH.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS...WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF GUAM ON TUESDAY.

SINCE OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE PEAK MONTHS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
MICRONESIA...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK DISTURBANCES CAN
QUICKLY INTENSIFY THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED ON SHORT
NOTICE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[metenthusiast]

hello guys, hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday. Oaba09, do you ever remember a year that was so busy and so destructive as this year? I'm not sure if it is because of Ondoy, but this year seems outrageous as far as storms go.

This latest "forecast" of 95W is troubling, but ozonepete, yes I know that it is way too early to start worrying.

I believe after milenyo left(xangsane) another typhoon came....But yes, this has been a very busy period............I guess ketsana really opened our eyes......

Opened our eyes... and flooded my house! I won't forget ketsana (Ondoy) due to the simple fact that it started my interests in all of this.

Good evening guys!

[oaba09]

hello guys, hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday. Oaba09, do you ever remember a year that was so busy and so destructive as this year? I'm not sure if it is because of Ondoy, but this year seems outrageous as far as storms go.

This latest "forecast" of 95W is troubling, but ozonepete, yes I know that it is way too early to start worrying.

I believe after milenyo left(xangsane) another typhoon came....But yes, this has been a very busy period............I guess ketsana really opened our eyes......

Opened our eyes... and flooded my house! I won't forget ketsana (Ondoy) due to the simple fact that it started my interests in all of this.

Good evening guys!

Good evening We're up for another busy week of storm tracking...

[metenthusiast]

Good evening We're up for another busy week of storm tracking...

You got that right! I've been keeping my sights on this LPA way before it's been declared as an invest (actually, i'm always looking out for weather anomalies in the Guam-Marianas area because I believe most of our storms comes from there.) I've been waiting for a thread to be created for it when we're still on the edges of our seats with Lupit, and finally, it has one now. It caught my interest simply because it looks massive, even if its still just a clump of clouds. Could this be the big one?

[HURAKAN]

Good evening guys!

Good evening We're up for another busy week of storm tracking...

Good morning!!!

[oaba09]

Good evening guys!

Good evening We're up for another busy week of storm tracking...

Good morning!!!

Hahaha! Good morning to you guys in the west

[oaba09]

Gotta sleep now...Need to wakeup early for the angels VS yankees game(I'm on leave for work)

[P.K.]

12Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 11N 154E WEST 15 KT

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

It looks a little better.I think the TCFA will not be far from being issued based on the improving organization of the past 6 hours.

[cebuboy]

Another storm is on the go. In my experience, is to early to tell whether this will become a super typhoon. But based also on what I have observed with super typhoons they start as a real humble tropical depression, sluggish at first, then once it is at Philippine sea, it gathers strength very very quickly and can become super typhoon within 2 days. Can anyone confirm my observation? I am no expert at all. This is just my plain observation.