WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#41 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:21 pm

Nevertheless, this system should bring some extra rainfall to the Philippines.

#42 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:31 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Nevertheless, this system should bring some extra rainfall to the Philippines.

Unfortunately it's looking pretty inevitable, especially for the north.

#43 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:38 pm

BUT... It seems to be gaining a lot of latitude pretty quickly. This looks like it might miss the northeastern tip of Luzon by a hair. That scenario would be good news overall, but doesn't mean it wouldn't dump a good deal of rain on northern Luzon.

dexterlabio · #44 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:22 pm

i really have a doubt that this disturbance will develop. with cooler, drier air around, the development of this next "cyclone" could be disrupted, adding the fact that vws is not too friendly as of this time. BUT if this disturbance makes it to become the next cyclone, then the philippines is really blessed this year with lots of storm O_O

BTW 97W looks organized as of the moment, with defined LLCC, and some convection wrapping around it.

#45 Postby **oaba09** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:45 pm

Invest 97W

Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
200911010000 16 131.2 20
200910311800 14.6 132.3 15
200910311200 12.5 134.8 15
200910310600 12.5 135 15

Gaining latitude fast....this might miss us
source: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP972009

ricmood · #46 Postby **ricmood** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:52 pm

If it is gaining lat, does that mean the STR gone already?

#47 Postby **oaba09** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:02 pm

ricmood wrote:If it is gaining lat, does that mean the STR gone already?

The STR seems to be ALMOST gone based on the latest images that I have

dexterlabio · #48 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:05 pm

^ i dunno but i think the HPA still exists somewhere in the north. btw northeast monsoon is coming very soon... if the air becomes cooler then it will be impossible for some cyclone development out here.

#49 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:38 pm

Wow! You make us all proud. You guys learned a lot really quickly. All of your observations are great, IMHO. This disturbance really lookslike it's going northwestward and will miss Luzon. In addition it has very limited time before it will have to recurve, because as you said the STR is being eroded rapidly by an incoming, unusually cool polar air mass fro China. This might get to TS status before it ingests cool dry air and gets pushed to the northeast, but it no longer seems much of a significant threat to the Philippines.

#50 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:46 pm

so this may go north then NE?

dexterlabio · #51 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:46 pm

^ haha. thanks. i am trying to related with the things you guys are saying, so i'm glad that i am learning

the environment is not that favorable (cooler, drier air), so this disturbance, if will still develop, could be just a minimal TS. there is HPA to the north, but the ridge from it is expected to weaken as cooler northeast surge is coming very soon.

i wish this is a good news for us in the philippines

i'm kinda feeling the christmas season... but the temperature today is unusual, maybe at least for me, because cooler air often arrives at mid-november. i am expecting the coming weeks to be very cold, and chances for cyclone formation to be lower.

drdavisjr · #52 Postby **drdavisjr** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:56 pm

ecmwf has this affecting the country tomorrow and tuesday, including southern luzon; but I just dont see it. Looks like it's headed nw to me.

#53 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:03 pm

drdavisjr wrote:ecmwf has this affecting the country tomorrow and tuesday, including southern luzon; but I just dont see it. Looks like it's headed nw to me.

Got my vote.

#54 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:03 pm

StormingB81 wrote:so this may go north then NE?

Well, NW, then N, then NE.

#55 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:06 pm

dexterlabio wrote:^ haha. thanks. i am trying to related with the things you guys are saying, so i'm glad that i am learning

the environment is not that favorable (cooler, drier air), so this disturbance, if will still develop, could be just a minimal TS. there is HPA to the north, but the ridge from it is expected to weaken as cooler northeast surge is coming very soon.

i wish this is a good news for us in the philippines i'm kinda feeling the christmas season... but the temperature today is unusual, maybe at least for me, because cooler air often arrives at mid-november. i am expecting the coming weeks to be very cold, and chances for cyclone formation to be lower.

Yes, my friend. Also, it's kind of funny to me, because here in New York City, what you call cold, we call very warm. :lol:

drdavisjr · #56 Postby **drdavisjr** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:10 pm

ozonepete wrote:Yes, my friend. Also, it's kind of funny to me, because here in New York City, what you call cold, we call very warm.

Haha. Yeah, when everyone is bundled up with sweaters here, I'm still wearing shorts.

drdavisjr · #57 Postby **drdavisjr** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:22 pm

JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 15N 131E WNW 10 KT.

#58 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:23 pm

SO should we watch it in Okinawa?

#59 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:36 pm

StormingB81 wrote:SO should we watch it in Okinawa?

Yes, for sure. It could come close to you, you never know. Way too early to tell.

#60 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 11:27 pm

Its Upped to a Depression :eek:

. My my the pacific ocean has churned up alot of storms this season...

La Nino

.

WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

Re:

Re: WPAC : INVEST 97W

Re: WPAC : INVEST 97W

Re:

Re: WPAC : INVEST 97W

Re: WPAC : INVEST 97W

Re: WPAC : INVEST 97W

Re:

Re:

Re: WPAC : INVEST 97W

Re: WPAC : INVEST 97W

Re: WPAC : INVEST 97W

Re:

Who is online