SWIO: INVEST 99S POOR (NE of Madagascar)

[Chacor]

Quite a promising INVEST. Looks decent.

[Chacor]

ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/311800ZOCT2009-011800ZNOV2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2S 57.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SPORADIC
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
311427Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LINE OF CYCLONIC
CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FOR APPROXIMATELY
180 NM. THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS ARE STRONGEST ON THE WESTERN
HALF WITH UNFLAGGED 15 TO 20 KNOTS DOMINATING, AND A FEW 20 TO 25
KNOT WIND BARBS INTERMIXED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC IS
LOCATED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE AXIS AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) ARE MARGINAL AT 26 TO 28 CELSIUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON AN LLCC
THAT IS STILL ORGANIZING, BUT HAS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
MARGINAL SST VALUES, AND LOW VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

01/0230 UTC 8.9S 57.7E T2.0/2.0 99S -- Southwest Indian

Dvorak says 30 knots

[CrazyC83]

The Southern Hemisphere is starting to turn on...

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 57.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS
ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTION MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 011424Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC
HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, WHICH IS DECREASING THE OVERALL OUTFLOW AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S 54.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1S 52.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1185 NM WEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN SPORADIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND HAS OSCILLATED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 030538Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A CLOSED LLCC OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS, WHICH IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY BY 05 KNOTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS STILL UNDER
MODERTATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO DECREASING CENTRAL
WINDS AND SPORADIC CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.