ATL : INVEST 96L

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vbhoutex
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#21 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:19 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:have to be honest, this looks like a storm

It sure does and it looks tropical to me or am I missing something?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#22 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:37 pm

Ida know, maybe NHC will just let it accelerate out to sea tonight/tomorrow and not name it? ;-)

Last model run had the name Invest 96L. If they were going to name it, the model run would have a different header. And only a medium chance of development next 48 hrs. All point to no name today. Therefore, I expect it to be named STS Ida in a few minutes. I think Bill Read has 9 named storms in the office pool for 2009.
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#23 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:44 pm

I'm thinking it may be named at 0300 UTC, or 10 p.m. EST
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#24 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:46 pm

It should be peaking in intensity over the next 12-18 hours. After then, it's accelerating out to sea over cooler water. So if the NHC is going to name it, they better get with it soon.

Oh, and note the cold front extending south from the low to just east of the Caribbean. Unusually strong front for this time of year that far south.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:11 pm

Pass from this morning but you can see a well rounded circulation with pretty strong winds.

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#26 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:35 pm

WOW!!! I wasnt even looking at this. That QS caught my eye. Needs a name! Whats the temperature profile on that?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:37 pm

Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L=7 PM EST TWO=Code Red

#28 Postby Cookie » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:04 pm

second system to affect the uk this season?

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L=7 PM EST TWO=Code Red

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:10 pm

01/2345 UTC 33.1N 56.7W ST3.0 96L -- Atlantic

45 knots says Dvorak
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L=7 PM EST TWO=Code Red

#30 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:18 pm

HURAKAN wrote:01/2345 UTC 33.1N 56.7W ST3.0 96L -- Atlantic

45 knots says Dvorak


Actually its Herbert-Poteat technique, not Dvorak.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L=7 PM EST TWO=Code Red

#31 Postby fogbreath » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:29 pm

Well, I'm glad the prelim tracks are all away from the East Coast - I'm going to be out by NC next weekend and that would not be a fun scenario to deal with
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:54 pm

This Q pass was made at 6:14 PM EST and shows IMO a storm with a very big circulation and strong winds reflected in those purple and black barbs.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#33 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:56 pm

Doesn't look very sub-tropical yet, other than that it's occasionally getting some thunderstorms over the center. Really lopsided and still attached to that front.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#34 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:28 pm

Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#35 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.


I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.
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#36 Postby pepeavilenho » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:52 pm

I don't know what to say... :?:

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when is the next paper from NHC?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:58 pm

ozonepete wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.


I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.


Then why NHC changed the code from orange to red?
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#38 Postby pepeavilenho » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:01 pm

[img]http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/4305/5dvryf.gif
[/img]

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#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:13 pm

I don't see any frontal boundary there...looks like Tropical Storm Ida to me...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

#40 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Front still extends south from the low to east of the Caribbean. Convection not increasing. Cloud tops warming a bit. Making the northerly turn now, heading over cooler and cooler water as it accelerates northward. I think the NHC may just let this one head out to sea, as it can't separate from the front.


I think you're right. Just doesn't look feasible.


Then why NHC changed the code from orange to red?


Because it had possibilities (and I thought it did too) but it hasn't capitalized on those possibilities in the last 6 hours and it's just about run out of time, as wxman57 said. It needed to wrap convection all the way around the center and it hasn't done it. And now it's clearly moving north over even cooler water, so there's not enough heat energy from the ocean to produce thunderstorms over the center.
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