WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (25W)

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ricmood

#41 Postby ricmood » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:21 am

I wish no storm will develop before the PACMAN fight, or else, PPV money wasted. :lol:
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Re:

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:22 am

ricmood wrote:I wish no storm will develop before the PACMAN fight, or else, PPV money wasted. :lol:


We have a thread dedicated to the Pacquiao vs Cotto fight at the sports forum so join the discussions about it there.oops! I am off topic. :)

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=106926&hilit=&p=1940266#p1940266
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Re:

#43 Postby dhoeze » Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:29 pm

oaba09 wrote:Seems to be heading NW....If ever this system develops, I think it will affect Japan...Our friends from japan should closely monitor this system :)


I think for what we are seeing right now, Japan will also be safe from this invest due to the strong winds currently above this invest. Base on this attached image, if ever this would develop, it will only go further North. I am assuming the winds
I marked with arrows is that strong.

Image
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Re: Re:

#44 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:38 pm

dhoeze wrote:
oaba09 wrote:Seems to be heading NW....If ever this system develops, I think it will affect Japan...Our friends from japan should closely monitor this system :)


I think for what we are seeing right now, Japan will also be safe from this invest due to the strong winds currently above this invest. Base on this attached image, if ever this would develop, it will only go further North. I am assuming the winds
I marked with arrows is that strong.

Image


That is possible if the winds are strong....However, I still think Japan should be aware since they are the ones most likely to be affected by this system...
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#45 Postby oaba09 » Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:40 pm

the system is too disorganized at this moment...I don't think this system will be much of anything.......As pete said, it's in a hostile environment...This is a no go for me......
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#46 Postby oaba09 » Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:29 am

Not looking good

Image
Image
Image

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZNOV2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
161.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 156.2E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES INDICATE THAT THE BEST
TURNING AT THE SURFACE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED
SEVERAL DEGREES (TO THE NORTHEAST) FROM THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN
POSITION BECAUSE A DISCRETE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS YET TO
PERSIST OR CONSOLIDATE. OVERALL THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A STRONG WAVE FEATURE WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CONTAINED WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE,
AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
SUSTAINED, DEEP CONVECTION. A 051947Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS TIGHT
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE, AS WELL AS STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW
ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE DISTURBANCE. TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS PREVENTING
CONVECTION FROM BUILDING WESTWARD, AND WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:08 pm

Upgraded to Fair

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N
156.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI. A 060819Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATES THAT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED DESPITE MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LLCC DUE TO THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE CIRCULATION. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF A LLCC.
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#48 Postby Crostorm » Fri Nov 06, 2009 8:18 pm

Image
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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:12 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.5N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.4N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.2N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.0N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.5N 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 155.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620
NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN


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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:13 pm

Image

TD 25W
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:15 pm

JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 21N 156E NNW SLOWLY.
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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:25 am

Image

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#53 Postby oaba09 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:42 am

Hmmmm...it developed after all...Looking at the latest from JTWC, it seems like it's not something any country should worry about for now...

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (25W)

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:07 am

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.2N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.2N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 24.5N 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 155.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM WEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION, DERIVED FROM THE ABOVE
ANIMATION, IS SUPPORTED BY A 070342Z TRMM PASS SHOWING A MICROWAVE
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 25W IS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST, ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE, OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. THE TUTT CELL ORIENTATION IS ERODING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE TD. TD 25W IS EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST BUT WILL
SOON RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG WESTERLIES AT 23
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE MINIMAL AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
LOOSELY IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z,
080300Z AND 080900Z.//

Image
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:40 am

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.3N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.7N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.1N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.4N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.7N 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 155.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:41 am

JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 156E NW SLOWLY.
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#57 Postby oaba09 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:24 am

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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:01 pm

Image

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#59 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 4:44 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.4N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.3N 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.0N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 29.3N 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 156.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GENERATED
DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO WRAP INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071528Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE CAPTURES THE WRAPPING CONVECTION BUT ALSO INDICATES
THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER THAT
MAY ENTRAIN AND IMPACT THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE IN THE COMING DAY OR
TWO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THOUGH IT HAS WANED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM HAS BUILT POLEWARD. TS 25W ALSO SITS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (2O TO 30 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TS 25W
SHOULD GRADUALLY PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
AS IT TRACKS OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNDER
HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN


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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:00 pm

Image

Looking quite impressive
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