APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING
OVER A DEVELOPING LLCC IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN OLDER 050110Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC WITH RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A RECENT 051549Z
ASCAT PASS MISSED THE LLCC, BUT INDICATED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS,
PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VWS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC, FAVORABLE SST VALUES, AND A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
![Image](http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/Mon_0911/11_23454_aba2b6310827411.jpg)
Once activated, it shows 25 knots of wind and was classified as a FAIR