#50 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 15, 2009 1:39 am
Réunion says 80 kt TC now, peak forecast 90kt ITC.
WTIO30 FMEE 150637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/15 AT 0600 UTC :
13.1S / 70.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 120
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 13.2S/69.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 13.6S/68.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 14.6S/67.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 15.9S/66.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/11/17 18 UTC: 17.4S/65.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/11/18 06 UTC: 18.9S/65.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
REANALYSIS AT 00Z : T=4.0+.
ANJA IS A MIDGET WHICH REACTS QUICKLY TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ARE DIFFICULT TO RESPECT.
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, MSLP IS ESTIMATED HIGHER.
THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD
INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLARWARD INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEME IS STILL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A MAIN EFFICIENT
UPPER LEVELS POLEWARDS OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEN MOONSON AND TRADES FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
AND SST BECOME COOLER, LIMITATING INTENSIFICATION.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS A MID-LATITUDES RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE GRADUALLY IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.=
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