WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

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Re: WPAC : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#481 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 01, 2009 8:55 pm

JMA 00:00 UTC warning.

STS 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 2 December 2009
<Analyses at 02/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°05'(21.1°)
E137°20'(137.3°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW460km(250NM)
SE300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E136°20'(136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N21°35'(21.6°)
E135°05'(135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)


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Re: WPAC : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#482 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:22 pm

JTWC warning at 0300Z mantains at 65kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 21.2N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.5N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 25.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 136.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#483 Postby Aslkahuna » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:50 pm

If you look at visual imagery, you will see that the deep convection is associated with the mid level circulation which is beginning to decouple from the LLCC. Shear is making its presence known.

Steve
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Re: WPAC : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#484 Postby ozonepete » Tue Dec 01, 2009 10:03 pm

Indeed, Steve. The shear is really high now and it will only get worse. If it doesn't start converting to extratropical soon and ride out on the westerlies, it will just get sheared apart.


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#485 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 02, 2009 7:08 am

Image

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Re: WPAC : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#486 Postby ozonepete » Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:04 pm

That's about it, I guess. The center's been stripped clean of convection by horrendous SW shear and the LLC is hardly even discernible. 30 KTS, maybe?

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#487 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:06 pm

JMA is at 40 kts.

Image

TS 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 2 December 2009
<Analyses at 02/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°00'(22.0°)
E134°20'(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW410km(220NM)
SE300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E134°55'(134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E136°20'(136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ESE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#488 Postby ozonepete » Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:JMA is at 40 kts.

Image



And that seems generous. And I see the JMA has reversed their forecast track 180 degrees to the east while the JTWC went more west to what JMA had up til now! LOL - they did a complete switch to the other's forecast. But of course it's understandable since what's left of the center is right under mid to upper southwesterlies and low level easterlies. The models can't really handle that well and it's not important anyway. I would say both agencies did a good job with a difficult forecast.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W)

#489 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:50 pm

JTWC 21:00Z Warning=40 kts

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.6N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.7N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 134.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED 90 NM EAST OF THE LLCC. IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS AN
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INDICATING
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CONFIRM COOLER TEMPERATURES
(25C) AND DRY AIR ADVECTION (DEWPOINT 20C). THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES A NORTHWARD
TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER, RECENT IMAGERY AS
WELL AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. BASED ON THE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING LLCC AND INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

#490 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 02, 2009 7:56 pm

JMA downgrades to TD

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TD
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 3 December 2009
<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N22°00'(22.0°)
E134°00'(134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 1000hPa
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

#491 Postby ozonepete » Wed Dec 02, 2009 8:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:JMA downgrades to TD

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TD
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 3 December 2009
<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N22°00'(22.0°)
E134°00'(134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 1000hPa


RIP Nida. A very powerful typhoon that didn't do any major damage. Just the way we like them.
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#492 Postby oaba09 » Wed Dec 02, 2009 9:08 pm

Wow...Nida looks really bad right now.....Shear always wins!!!! RIP Nida....
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

#493 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 02, 2009 9:13 pm

JTWC Final Warning

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 045
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 26W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.6N 134.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 134.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.8N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.0N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 134.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
BASED ON THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING LLCC AND INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER
AIR, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY INDICATES A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THROUGH TAU 24,
HOWEVER, RECENT IMAGERY AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL FLOW, SUPPORT A SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN

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#494 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Dec 02, 2009 11:43 pm

In the words of Chris Berman...Going....Going....GONE! That quick too well at the end..
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

#495 Postby HurricaneRobert » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:34 am

How the mighty have fallen. It didn't make it to land or ET like most storms of this caliber.
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