WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

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oaba09
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#421 Postby oaba09 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 5:51 am

LATEST JMA

Image

<Analyses at 29/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N19°30'(19.5°)
E139°20'(139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW480km(260NM)
SE330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 30/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E138°50'(138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E137°55'(137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E136°40'(136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E135°10'(135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)
<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N18°50'(18.8°)
E133°25'(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Radius of probability circle 950km(500NM)
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#422 Postby oaba09 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:00 am

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I still don't see how the system could move sw at it's current state and strength...
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#423 Postby oaba09 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:01 am

Image

Not looking so good
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#424 Postby oaba09 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:03 am

Image

Multi sensor image
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#425 Postby oaba09 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:15 am

Image

Possible tracks...
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#426 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:30 am

Image

Heres more, its a spider web hehehe
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#427 Postby JTE50 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:41 am

Huge waves pounding Guam's west coast right now. I'd say about 2-3 stories on the biggest sets.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#428 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:41 am

moving north a bit then after losing much strength, it can go westwards then southwestwards as it dissipates. that makes more sense to me.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#429 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:45 am

Image
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#430 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:02 am

JMA 12:45 UTC Warning

TY 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 29 November 2009
<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N19°30'(19.5°)
E139°10'(139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW480km(260NM)
SE330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E138°40'(138.7°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E137°50'(137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E136°35'(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

Image
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#431 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:44 am

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#432 Postby oaba09 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:51 am

1200Z Update....
Down to 120 knots per JTWC...

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.8N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.2N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.6N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.2N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.4N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.9N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 139.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN
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#433 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:11 am

Image

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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#434 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 29, 2009 3:53 pm

Not looking too good now. This could be a pretty fast decline. There appears to be increasing shear - the eye looks distorted and stretched from SW to NE - look at Hurakan's last image. And there's a lot of dry air near it now. It still has a couple of pretty good convective areas considering how long it's been sitting there with upwellling, but the organization is shot. The JTWC estimate of 120KT just doesn't seem possible. The JMA number of 90KT is much more realistic.

It also looks like it drifted E or SE in the last few frames. If it makes any more eastward motion the westerlies will catch it and shoot it off to the NE. If it drifts to the west enough it would go almost due south. After watching the water vapor loops I'm still thinking it's going NE. Interesting to watch.
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#435 Postby bahamaswx » Sun Nov 29, 2009 4:13 pm

Almost no movement today at all.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#436 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 4:16 pm

JTWC 18:00Z Warning - 110 KTS

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.9N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.4N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.7N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.8N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.5N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.1N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 139.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CORE
CONVECTION, HOWEVER, A 291739Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A ROUND 50 NM EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM 37 GHZ WHICH
SHOWS A SMALLER MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS.
NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR STILL FAVOR A RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND TRACK
THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY, WHILE JGSM,
TC-LAPS, UKMO, ECMWF, AND GFS FAVOR A SLOWER WESTWARD TRACK WITH
DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT
WITH DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 72. ANALYSIS DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH ZONAL UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF 25N, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST
SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#437 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 29, 2009 5:44 pm

Here it comes. Dry air coming in rapidly on the western side. One dry channel is almost into the eye now.

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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#438 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:20 pm

JMA 00:45 UTC Warning - 80 KTS

TY 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 30 November 2009
<Analyses at 30/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°40'(19.7°)
E139°30'(139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 100km(55NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW460km(250NM)
SE300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E138°40'(138.7°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E137°50'(137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E136°35'(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 480km(260NM)

Image
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CrazyC83
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#439 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 9:26 pm

It's quite shallow now but has really grown in size. Looks to be about 90 kt right now.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

#440 Postby Macrocane » Sun Nov 29, 2009 9:39 pm

ozonepete wrote:Not looking too good now. This could be a pretty fast decline. There appears to be increasing shear - the eye looks distorted and stretched from SW to NE - look at Hurakan's last image. And there's a lot of dry air near it now. It still has a couple of pretty good convective areas considering how long it's been sitting there with upwellling, but the organization is shot. The JTWC estimate of 120KT just doesn't seem possible. The JMA number of 90KT is much more realistic.



Remember that you can't compare directly the JMA estimate with the JTWC one because JMA is based 10-min sustained winds and JTWC uses 1-min sustained winds, although the 110 kt on the last warning may be a little high I would say it is 100 kt right now.
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