TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)

[tropicana]

this system has already produced at least 139mm of rain ( 5 1/2 inches) in the Darwin, NT area.

[Crostorm]

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1937 UTC 12/12/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.4S
Longitude: 129.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [231 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm [ km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/0600: 13.7S 129.3E: 055 [100]: 040 [075]: 994
+24: 13/1800: 13.7S 128.4E: 085 [155]: 050 [095]: 989
+36: 14/0600: 14.1S 127.5E: 120 [220]: 055 [100]: 985
+48: 14/1800: 14.4S 126.5E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 995
+60: 15/0600: 15.1S 125.6E: 200 [365]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 15/1800: 15.9S 125.2E: 245 [455]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical low 01U has been exhibiting slow movement to the southwest, taking it
slightly further out into the waters of the Timor Sea. Poor fix based on Darwin
and Wyndham radars. Deep convection is increasing near the centre, although
organization is poor. DT remains indeterminate, but 24 hour trend is steady
giving MET/PT of 2.5. Continued development expected at standard rate as system
moves further into the Timor Sea. Only unfavourable factor is proximity to land.

Models generally have short term west northwestward movement contrary to recent
history. Interpretation is that models have system too weak and are steering
with the 700hPa rather than 500hPa steering which seems to be directing the
system. However, longer term as models deepen the system, movement tends
west-southwesterly. Forecast track strategy is therefore to adjust model
consensus track over next 18 hours for consistency with recent trends, following
consensus thereafter, with landfall expected on north Kimberley coastline in 2
days.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

12/1430 UTC 13.2S 129.6E T1.5/1.5 92P -- Southeast Indian

Over water

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [7:30 am WDT] Sunday 13 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to
WA/NT Border.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Mitchell Plateau.

At 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST] a developing Tropical Low was estimated to be just
off the Northern Territory coast, 190 kilometres southwest of Darwin and 325
kilometres east northeast of Kalumburu and moving southwest at 6 kilometres per
hour.

The tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during today as
it moves further into the Timor Sea.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected on the coast between
the WA/NT border and Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia late Sunday or early
Monday. These may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per
hour during Monday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the far north Kimberley region later today and may
cause localised flooding.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between the Northern Territory border and Kuri Bay should
listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 129.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Sunday 13 December[9:30 am WST
Sunday 13 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre



MEDIA: the following message is only for broadcast in Western Australia

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 122200
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112151Z DEC 09//
REF/B/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122052Z DEC 09//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 129.7E TO 13.3S 125.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
131.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING OF THE WELL
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAD BEEN
APPARENT 24 HOURS AGO. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER WATER
AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGION.
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE LLCC, AND HAS EXPANDED RADIALLY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132200Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 84.5E.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Sunday 13 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to
WA/NT Border.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Mitchell Plateau.

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was estimated
to be 80 kilometres north of Port Keats and 310 kilometres east northeast of
Kalumburu and moving southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Laurence is expected to move westward into the Timor Sea, and
approach the north Kimberley coast tonight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected on the coast between
the WA/NT border and Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia late Sunday or early
Monday. These may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per
hour during Monday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the far north Kimberley region later today and Monday,
which may cause localised flooding.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People between Mitchell Plateau and the NT border, including the
communities of Wyndham, Oombulgurri, Kalumburu and Mitchell Plateau should start
taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 129.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Sunday 13 December[12:30 pm WST
Sunday 13 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Crostorm]

Hurakan the name is Laurence,not Lawrence

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan the name is Laurence,not Lawrence

Oops, I did it again!! lol

But I was close!!

[HURAKAN]

12/2030 UTC 13.4S 129.6E T1.5/1.5 92P -- Southeast Indian

25 knots

[HURAKAN]

Exposed

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.4S 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.5S 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.8S 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.3S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.5S 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.6S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 127.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130513Z AMSR-E 36V GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM ADRM IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AT 45 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. TC 06S IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, BUT SHOULD START TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EAST OF 118E INTO NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10 TO 15 KNOT
RATE PER DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW NEAR TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
RECURVATURE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 122151Z DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 122200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [9:30 pm WST] Sunday 13 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque, not
including Derby.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was estimated
to be 230 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu and 480 kilometres northeast
of Kuri Bay and moving northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to move west or west southwest parallel to
the north Kimberley coast in Western Australia.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the north Kimberley
coast during Monday if the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN may develop in the north Kimberley region later on Monday or Tuesday
if the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People between Wyndham and Kuri Bay, including the communities of
Wyndham, Oombulgurri, Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau and Kuri Bay should start
taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 127.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Monday 14 December[12:30 am WST
Monday 14 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [12:30 am WST] Monday 14 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque, not
including Derby.

At 12:30 am CST [11:00 pm WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was
estimated to be 240 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu and 485 kilometres
northeast of Kuri Bay and moving north northwest at 4 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to move west or west southwest parallel to
the north Kimberley coast in Western Australia.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the north Kimberley
coast during Monday if the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN may develop in the north Kimberley region later on Monday or Tuesday
if the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People between Wyndham and Kuri Bay, including the communities of
Wyndham, Oombulgurri, Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau and Kuri Bay should start
taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 12:30 am CST [11:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 127.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the north northwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Monday 14 December[3:30 am WST
Monday 14 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Alacane2]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [6:30 am WST] Monday 14 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque, not
including Derby.

At 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was estimated
to be 260 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu and 495 kilometres northeast
of Kuri Bay and moving west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to move west or west southwest parallel to
the north Kimberley coast in Western Australia.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the north Kimberley
coast today if the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN may develop in the north Kimberley region later today or Tuesday if
the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People between Wyndham and Kuri Bay, including the communities of
Wyndham, Oombulgurri, Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau and Kuri Bay should start
taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.1 degrees South 127.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 105 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Monday 14 December[9:30 am WST
Monday 14 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Monday 14 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Kuri Bay,
including Derby.

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was estimated
to be 250 kilometres northeast of Kalumburu and 505 kilometres northeast of Kuri
Bay and moving west at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence has been slow moving overnight but is expected to move
west or west southwest closer to the north Kimberley coast in Western Australia.


GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the north
Kimberley coast tonight. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour
may develop between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay during Tuesday morning as the cyclone
moves closer to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to develop in the north Kimberley region later today or
Tuesday if the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People between Oombulgurri and Kuri Bay, including the communities
of Oombulgurri, Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau and Kuri Bay, should start taking
precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 128.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Monday 14 December[12:30 pm WST
Monday 14 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST [12:30 pm WST] Monday 14 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Kuri Bay,
including Derby.

At 12:30 pm CST [11:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was
estimated to be 210 kilometres northeast of Kalumburu and 255 kilometres north
of Wyndham and moving west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to move west southwest towards the north
Kimberley coast in Western Australia.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the north
Kimberley coast during the afternoon. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130
kilometres per hour may develop between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay Tuesday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the north Kimberley region later today and Tuesday as
the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People between Wyndham and Kuri Bay, including the communities of
Wyndham, Oombulgurri, Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau and Kuri Bay should start
taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 12:30 pm CST [11:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 128.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Monday 14 December[3:30 pm WST
Monday 14 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre