TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [9:30 pm WST] Monday 14 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was estimated
to be 140 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu and 280 kilometres north
northwest of Wyndham and moving west at 12 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is moving west and is expected to curve southwest
gradually approaching closer to the northwest Kimberley coast in Western
Australia.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected over the north
Kimberley coast and adjacent inland areas tonight, extending west during
Tuesday. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop
between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay later on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the north Kimberley region tonight and Tuesday as the
cyclone moves closer to the coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau
and Faraway Bay should be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's
arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Oombulgurri and Kuri Bay should
start taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 127.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Tuesday 15 December[12:30 am WST
Tuesday 15 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.1S 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.9S 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.9S 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.6S 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 127.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS RELOCATED FROM
THE PREVIOUS 13/18Z WARNING POSITION OF 12.1S 126.9E TO THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM SHOWING A CONSOLIDATING
AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RE-ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC BECAME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER 13/06Z AND
TRACKED SOUTHWARD, STRENGTHENED, AND THEN TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. DUE TO THE LACK OF DATA E.G., QUIKSCAT AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY, THIS ERRATIC TRACK WAS NOT IDENTIFIED UNTIL RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALED THE STRONGER, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC. THE FORECAST TRACK AND
PHILOSOPHY HAVE ALSO BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE
RELOCATION. CURRENTLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND RADAR
DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE FORECAST WITH FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS (GFDN, WBAR, TC-LAPS, NOGAPS, UKMO AND ECMWF). THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVERLAND NEAR TAU
12, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT PARALLELS THE COAST WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WITH LESS LAND INTERACTION AND
INTENSIFY AS HIGH AS 55-65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) FINAL WARNING
(WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

The eye is already visible in the radar

[HURAKAN]

14/1430 UTC 13.2S 126.9E T3.5/3.5 LAURENCE -- Southeast Indian

intensifying

[HURAKAN]

NRL : 50 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [12:30 am WST] Tuesday 15 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay.

At 12:30 am CST [11:00 pm WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was
estimated to be 125 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu and 210 kilometres
northeast of Mitchell Plateau and moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per
hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is moving west southwest and is expected to continue
curving southwest towards the northwest Kimberley coast in Western Australia.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected over the north
Kimberley coast and adjacent inland areas, extending west during today.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between
Kalumburu and Kuri Bay later today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the north Kimberley region today as the cyclone moves
closer to the coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau
and Faraway Bay should be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's
arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Oombulgurri and Kuri Bay should
start taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 12:30 am CST [11:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 126.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 110 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Tuesday 15 December[3:30 am WST
Tuesday 15 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized just offshore

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:12 am CST [3:42 am WST] Tuesday 15 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cockatoo Island to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Cockatoo Island.

At 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 1 was estimated
to be 120 kilometres north of Kalumburu and 195 kilometres north northeast of
Mitchell Plateau and moving west at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to curve southwest close to the northwest
Kimberley coast in Western Australia.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced over
the north Kimberley coast between Troughton Island and the mouth of the King
George River. These winds are expected to extend further southwest along the
coast, reaching as far as Cockatoo Island on Wednesday morning. GALES may extend
further southwest as far as Beagle Bay by Thursday. If the cylcone takes a more
southerly track, GALES may extend further inland during today. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop near Troughton Island later
today, and may extend southwest along the coast as far as Kuri Bay by Wednesday
morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region today,
extending into the western Kimberley during today and Wednesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau
and Faraway Bay should be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's
arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Oombulgurri and Kuri Bay should
start taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 126.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 110 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 991 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Tuesday 15 December[6:30 am WST
Tuesday 15 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Close to the coast

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [6:30 am WST] Tuesday 15 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cockatoo Island to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Cockatoo Island.

At 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 2 was estimated
to be 100 kilometres north of Kalumburu and 170 kilometres north northeast of
Mitchell Plateau and moving west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is moving parallel to the Kimberley coast in Western
Australia, and is slowly intensifying.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced over
the north Kimberley coast between Troughton Island and the mouth of the King
George River. These winds are expected to extend further southwest along the
coast, reaching as far as Cockatoo Island on Wednesday morning. GALES may extend
further southwest as far as Beagle Bay by Thursday. If the cyclone takes a more
southerly track, GALES may extend further inland during today. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are expected to develop near Troughton
Island later today, and may extend southwest along the coast as far as Kuri Bay
by Wednesday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region today,
extending into the western Kimberley during today and Wednesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau
and Faraway Bay should be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's
arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island
should start taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.4 degrees South 126.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Tuesday 15 December[9:30 am WST
Tuesday 15 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Crostorm]

[dwsqos2]

Troughton Island Observations

That is a time-sensitive link, but the peak 10-minute wind observed was 74 knots, and the later peak gust was 101 knots. The site elevation is 6 meters. Needless to say, that is quite impressive.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

CORRECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 31
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:20 am CST [9:50 am WST] Tuesday 15 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cockatoo Island to Wyndham.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Cockatoo Island.

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 3 was
estimated to be 85 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and 140 kilometres
north northeast of Mitchell Plateau and moving southwest at 8 kilometres per
hour.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Laurence is expected to
move southwest parallel to the Kimberley coast during today.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 165 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced near the coast around Troughton Island and are expected to extend
southwest along the coast to Mitchell Plateau during today. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may extend further southwest to Kuri Bay
overnight.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend further along the coast,
reaching as far as Cockatoo Island on Thursday morning and as far as Beagle Bay
later on Thursday or Friday, if the cyclone maintains its current track.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region today,
extending into the western Kimberley during today and Wednesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kalumburu, Mitchell Plateau
and Faraway Bay should be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's
arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island
should start taking precautions.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.6 degrees South 126.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 December[12:30 pm WST
Tuesday 15 December].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Macrocane]

It looks like a 60 kt cyclone (at least).

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.8S 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.6S 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.5S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.3S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.6S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.8S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 126.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ACCORDINGLY, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS
AND A 141647Z 37 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED
BANDING AND A MICROWAVE EYE. WYNDHAM RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE
WRAPPING CONVECTION AND APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
CONFIRMING THE POSITION. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEAR TERM, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH BUT ENABLE
THE STEERING RIDGE TO REMAIN ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BY TAU 48, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
INTERACTS OVER LAND AND IT WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A LOBE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK BACK OVER VERY WARM WATER AND BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN