SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F (93P)

[HURAKAN]

This disturbance is quite far to the east in the SPO

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 02/0943 UTC 2010 UTC.

REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC
NADI FEB 02/0820 UTC 2010 FOR TC OLI.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE [998HPA] NEAR 15S 145W AT 020900 UTC
SOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 6 HRS.
ORGANISATION IS POOR WITH OUTFLOW EVIDENT TO THE EAST AND NORTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH DEEP PULSATING
CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM.
08F LIES UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUET REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF
DECREASING SHEAR.
SOME GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT.
POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 02/1402 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE [997HPA] LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 145.7W AT
021200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH TOPS
COOLING. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH PULSATING CONVECTION OVER 08F.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES LOW SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS. DVORAK BASED ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDS A 0.4
WRAP, YIELDING DT2.5. PT=MET= 2.5 MET, THUS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAS PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND AGRREE ON A SOUTHEAST
TRACK MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS MODEARTE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE IISUED AROUND
022000 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HurricaneBill]

The next name on the list is "Pat".

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5S 145.2W TO 25.8S 145.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 022330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S 145.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
146.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 145.0W, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST
OF BORA BORA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE 021925Z ASCAT PASS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT INDICATES THE
SYSTEM'S VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS SEPARATED FROM THAT OF TC 12P (OLI)
AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FINALLY, THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HAS
SUFFICIENT DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-
DEVELOPED MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS SERVING TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND INDUCE VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
LLCC AS WELL AS THE SYSTEM'S ISOLATION FROM TC 12P, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0228 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE [997HPA] RE-LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 145.2W
AT 030000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

LLCLS EXPOSED TO SOUTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT
CENTRE STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE DUE SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO TC OLI
CIRCULATION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER UPPER DIFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
EAST AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 30C. DEPRESSION
STEERED SOUTHWARDS UNDER LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLIES. DVORAK BASED 0.3 WRAP
ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT1.5. PT=1.5 MET=1.5 MET, THUS
T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS TGENERALLY AGREE ON A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE IISUED AROUND
030830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

This TD is no longer valid.