ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Weatherfreak000]

As I was trying to state earlier, the models lack of information was responsible for them not showing a storm with as much potential as 93L has.

[floridasun78]

have track of some models move bit to right?

[Rockin4NOLA]

Really HWRF? really, lol

Is that orange model (the CLP5) reliable at all? Because if it is.... .....I don't mean to get this anxious this far out but..you know....

So, if I understand correctly - the faster / more powerful 93L becomes, the more it tracks to the right, and the longer it takes to develop, the more it tracks to the left?

[JonathanBelles]

The Orange model (CLP5) is the climate model, and it only reacts how a storm under climatological storms of the past have acted.

[lonelymike]

Really HWRF? really, lol

Is that orange model (the CLP5) reliable at all? Because if it is.... .....I don't mean to get this anxious this far out but..you know....

So, if I understand correctly - the faster / more powerful 93L becomes, the more it tracks to the right, and the longer it takes to develop, the more it tracks to the left?

Along with the xtrap it's the Abbot and Costello of hurricane models. Totally useless. I would ignore it.

[Tertius]

Is that orange model (the CLP5) reliable at all? Because if it is.... .....I don't mean to get this anxious this far out but..you know....

So, if I understand correctly - the faster / more powerful 93L becomes, the more it tracks to the right, and the longer it takes to develop, the more it tracks to the left?

In a word, no. The CLP model is not a good predictive model for tropical systems. I forget at the moment what it IS good for, perhaps someone else will check in on that.

[lonelymike]

As I was trying to state earlier, the models lack of information was responsible for them not showing a storm with as much potential as 93L has.

Indeed....please elaborate.

[ronjon]

Is that orange model (the CLP5) reliable at all?

CLP5 is not a numerical model but based on statistical history of storms where 93L is located. The better dynamical models are GFDL and HWRF. Best global models are GFS, ECM, and UKMET.

[ROCK]

personally I rely on the LBAR model......

HWRF run was jacked....but the trend is rightish if that is a word. The EURO picked this up in the 0z run while the CMC is sniffing it also....really depends on where the LLC takes up shop...

[mf_dolphin]

It's time to wait and watch folks. When and if 93L forms, then we'll have a center to initialze the models with. Right now I'd say everyone in the area needs to double check their hurricane kits and plan.

[Ivanhater]

personally I rely on the LBAR model......

HWRF run was jacked....but the trend is rightish if that is a word. The EURO picked this up in the 0z run while the CMC is sniffing it also....really depends on where the LLC takes up shop...

I agree Rock, we have seen time and time again models switch when a low is finally initialized. We are still in the 1st inning.

[SCUBAdude]

GFDL track, look at those waters in the northern gulf

Never seen white on that map before

Possibly the oil on the surface is absorbing enough heat from the sun to sort of "super heat" th waters in the Northern Gulf.

[Rockin4NOLA]

Ah ok thanks for the info.,well..I don't like the looks of the GFDL either..anyways...

To make my post at least a tad relevant...here is a sat image from one of our local stations here in New Orleans...even if 93L poofs, lots of moisture behind it....

i

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[littlevince]

Along with the xtrap it's the Abbot and Costello of hurricane models. Totally useless. I would ignore it.

And it's a good idea ignore XTRP for forecasting purposes because it's not a model
It's just an extrapolation from past 12-hr motion.

XTRP - Extrapolation using past 12-hr motion (NHC)

TVCN - Consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (replaces old CONU model)
NHC - National Hurricane Center official forecast

BAMD - Beta and Advection model, deep (NHC)
BAMM - Beta and Advection model, medium (NHC)
BAMS - Beta and Advection model, shallow (NHC)

GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model
UKM - United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) model (Developmental)
NGPS - United States Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model

AVNO - NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) model (formerly known as the AVN/MRF)
AEMN - NOAA GFS Ensemble Mean
HWRF - NOAA Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) model

CMC2 - Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) model
APxx - NOAA GFS Ensemble Members
CLP5 - CLImatology-PERsistance (CLIPER) model 5-day (NHC)

Source: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... plots.html

Useful links:
-> AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS
-> Technical Summary of the NHC Track and Intensity Models
-> 2009 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report

[Aquawind]

GFDL track, look at those waters in the northern gulf

Never seen white on that map before

Possibly the oil on the surface is absorbing enough heat from the sun to sort of "super heat" th waters in the Northern Gulf.

No super heating happening.. check this information by accuweather in the SSt thread from the people who monitor the bouys..

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104455&start=400

[clfenwi]

So, if I understand correctly - the faster / more powerful 93L becomes, the more it tracks to the right, and the longer it takes to develop, the more it tracks to the left?

The BAMs are indicating what you could call an "inverted" situation, i.e. the opposite of what's normally supposed. They are showing a shallow/weak storm guided by surface flow going into the GOM, while indicating a more developed storm would head to the Yucatan.

The models aren't as too the right as that graphic makes it appear. As everyone's pointed out, one of the models to the right is the climatological model that should be disregarded. The HWRF struggled to follow a circulation, so it's run is more or less busted. If you disregard the HWRF, that makes the TVCN invalid, as it's just splitting the difference between HWRF and the GFDL. With the GFDL going from losing the vortex in the last run to showing development in this run, you can't call anything it did a trend, yet.

(Edited to correctly format the quote box).

[Ivanhater]

00z NAM is very bullish

[BigA]

18z WRF (just updated recently on the MYFOX hurricane page) is more bullish than previous runs.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[ROCK]

00z NAM is very bullish

Ivan, I love it when you post the NAM.... I think you should be called the NAM hugger going forward.....

just giving you the business bro...

[Weatherfreak000]

00z NAM is very bullish

Ivan, I love it when you post the NAM.... I think you should be called the NAM hugger going forward.....

just giving you the business bro...

Can you maybe, actually, not clog up this topic with pointless information? I for one am infinitely more interested in the NAM model than your personal musings.

No offense, ROCK.