ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Scorpion]

The potential is absolutely sickening

I have never even come close to seeing something like that. That's off the charts pretty much. MPI must be in the mid 800's.

[SFLcane]

Low level winds look very favorable for continued organization and that combined with the extreme heat content in the Caribbean this has the potential to be a rather powerful cyclone. I still feel this will track towards the yucatan/Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting...it is organizing quite fast.. we maybe seeing a TD tomorrow..

[Ivanhater]

interesting is organizing quite fast.. we maybe seeing a TD tomorrow..

Where are you looking at for a possible LLC Aric? I'm seeing possibly around 13.5 and 59

I see a dying MLC further south.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting is organizing quite fast.. we maybe seeing a TD tomorrow..

Where are you looking at for a possible LLC Aric? I'm seeing possibly around 13.5 and 59

I see a dying MLC further south.

well right now according the surface observations, radar and satellite its developing WSW or SW of Barbados.. the MLC is a good place to keep looking as it corresponds to a weak surface circ around 12-12.5 N and 60-61 W but I imagine the whole system will continue to shift NNW over the next 12 hours while it develops then bend back the W or WNW.

[Ivanhater]

interesting is organizing quite fast.. we maybe seeing a TD tomorrow..

Where are you looking at for a possible LLC Aric? I'm seeing possibly around 13.5 and 59

I see a dying MLC further south.

well right now according the surface observations, radar and satellite its developing WSW or SW of Barbados.. the MLC is a good place to keep looking as it corresponds to a weak surface circ around 12-12.5 N and 60-61 W but I imagine the whole system will continue to shift NNW over the next 12 hours while it develops then bend back the W or WNW.

Ok, good stuff. Thanks

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ROCK]

The potential is absolutely sickening

I have never even come close to seeing something like that. That's off the charts pretty much. MPI must be in the mid 800's.

this is how sickening it is out there....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[ColinDelia]

Latest

That's the biggest area of 50 units of vorticity we've seen yet and now it is more offshore than on.

[HURAKAN]

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
VERY INTERESTING AND SEPTEMBER LIKE SCENARIO EVOLVING ACROSS THE
BASIN AS LOW PRES IS BEGINNING TO DOMINATE...WITH WEAK W TO SW
FLOW ACROSS THE SW AND FAR S CARIB AND ADJACENT S AMERICA.
LIGHT WLYS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE A-B-C'S. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES JUST TO THE SE OF THE WINDWARDS IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
DRIFT NW INTO THE E CARIB. SWLY WIND SURGES OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE FROM THE S PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
OUTWARD TOWARD THE N AND NE...INDUCING SQUALLS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BEYOND 36-48 HRS...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FASTER AND TO THE NW THAN GFS AND UKMET...ALTHOUGH
ALL SHOW A 20-25 KT CYCLONE BY THEN. HAVE OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET TIMING...WITH A LOW NEAR 15N67W BY
72 HRS. WE EXPECT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NE QUAD BY THAT TIME
ACROSS THE NE CARIB...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIB WITH SEAS 3
FT AND LESS W OF 70W.

[TheBurn]

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

There have been Wind Shifts between west,westsouthwest,northwest,westnorthwest winds all day long in Trinidad & Tobago.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html

Code: Select all

Latest 4 PM (20) Sep 09 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) NW 13 
 3 PM (19) Sep 09 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NNW 13 
 2 PM (18) Sep 09 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 15 
 1 PM (17) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 13 
 Noon (16) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 15 
 11 AM (15) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) WNW 15 light rain showers
 10 AM (14) Sep 09 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) W 15 light rain showers
 9 AM (13) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) W 15 
 8 AM (12) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) W 17 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 7 AM (11) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WSW 8 
 6 AM (10) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) SW 15 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 5 AM (9) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 15 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 4 AM (8) Sep 09 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 6 light rain with thunder; showers in the vicinity
 3 AM (7) Sep 09 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) WNW 13 light rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 2 AM (6) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) WNW 18 light rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 1 AM (5) Sep 09 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 8 
 Midnight (4) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 17 
 11 PM (3) Sep 08 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) W 17 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 10 PM (2)  No Data     
 9 PM (1) Sep 08 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WSW 6 light rain with thunder
 8 PM (0) Sep 08 77 (25) 69 (21) 29.88 (1012) W 3 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 7 PM (23) Sep 08 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) WSW 13 rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 6 PM (22)  No Data   


[cycloneye]

Here is the afternoon discussion by the San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

DISCUSSION...EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH
SLOWLY ORGANIZING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TPC/NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AND NHC
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE HAVE SEVERAL POSSIBLE TRACK AND
INTENSITY SCENARIOS AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WE EXPECT
AT LEAST A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FA
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE
"DEVELOPING" NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCENARIO...THERE IS A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND EVEN MONDAY. THEREFORE... ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

[ColinDelia]

18z z SHIPS is indicating 15-24 knots of shear from 48-120 hours. Though because of the shear direction it's not a huge negative according to SHIPS. Something to keep an eye on and of course, as mentioned yesterday, shear forecasts can be quite unreliable depending on the situation.

[Aric Dunn]

not much yet ... but trying..

[msbee]

Please, a PLEA about the island radars... and please don't flame me, it's only because I care about the people actually IN the bad weather!

Bandwidth here in the islands isn't the same as the states. I'm pretty sure the French and Dutch radars can't handle the load of great interest by the mainland U.S., because I've seen them crumble under load during other storms of interest to US mainland (translation: being hyped on US tv).

For us on the islands, the 3 radars are much more critical than any one radar is in the U.S., there is so little timely data locally. If they get overloaded and crash, nobody can use them.

Just asking users to exert some restraint, and don't be hitting refresh constantly. {off soapbox}

good point bvigal
I know our radar is constantly crashing.

[wxman57]

Looks to be putting out a lot of outflow boundaries this afternoon. I'd say no TD until maybe Sunday or Monday. No evidence of an LLC presently. It'll take quite a while to organize.

[SouthFLTropics]

I've been watching visible satellite for most of the day. I just took a look at the IR and it looks to me like convection is waning. I think the dry air to the north of 92L is having a negative impact on the development right now.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to be putting out a lot of outflow boundaries this afternoon. I'd say no TD until maybe Sunday or Monday. No evidence of an LLC presently. It'll take quite a while to organize.

monday might be a little to slow..