WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[oaba09]

Now inside the Philippines area of responsibility according to PAGASA....The system's local name is "KATRING...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Not saying anything against Pagasa but I would like to kindly disagree with that track. Unless they are seeing something I am not, yes the storm is clearly moving W at this time but with the position the WPAC high is in and the overall windflow in the region is seems pretty clear this should go NW.

Now with that said they are the professionals but ya.. Anyone else seeing this storm going W towards Luzon?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well if it drift a little farther S I can see how they can justify it actually, good job Pagasa if this comes through...

[oaba09]

Well if it drift a little farther S I can see how they can justify it actually, good job Pagasa if this comes through...

I think they are just trying to be cautious.....They said in an interview earlier that they are looking at 2 possible tracks(one track going westwards while the other track going towards Japan)....

[Chacor]

JMA analysing SW motion.

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 15.3N 134.4E POOR
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 15.8N 131.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[oaba09]

JMA analysing SW motion.

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 15.3N 134.4E POOR
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 15.8N 131.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

yeah...definitely moved SW earlier...

[oaba09]

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.8N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.2N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.7N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.1N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.9N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 132.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

The track towards Japan still seems more plausible, but I can understand why they are being cautious, I just saw on TFC that they are saying it will form and head towards them. Seems a little over active on there part.

[Chacor]

Starting to organise a little...



DPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
640 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENT
FLOW FROM THE NORTH INDUCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND ON A 231105Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
B. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD BY TAU 36 AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
STR TOWARDS RECURVATURE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. AS THE TUTT MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. MOVES WESTWARD, THE VWS
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL DECREASE, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER
INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INITIALLY IMPROVES WITH THE SYSTEM'S
EXPOSURE TO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF FAVORING A
POLEWARD TURN WHILE GFDN AND JGSM ARE TRACKING THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT
TOWARDS THE WEST ALONG A PRESUMABLY STRONGER STR. THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING MORE POLEWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CHINA.//

[StormingB81]

ECMWF basically has it going over Okinawa now

[StormingB81]

PAGASA wants it to come to Okinawa but will it turn still going SW

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.5N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.1N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.2N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.8N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.2N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 132.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231630Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED BUT STILL
BROAD CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AMSRE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND A 231248Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INDUCING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 16W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TD 16W TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE
SHOULD SLOW AROUND TAU 72, WHEN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD SURGE ORIGINATING OVER
NORTHERN CHINA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH NOGAPS,
GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF FAVORING A POLEWARD TURN, WHILE GFDN AND JGSM
ARE ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ALONG A PRESUMABLY
STRONGER STR. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING
MORE POLEWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH REORIENTING
THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//

[oaba09]

[StormingB81]

Man a storm can;t come near here during halloween...lol

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.8N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.1N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.4N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 132.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN,HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

Man a storm can;t come near here during halloween...lol

LOL, I said that on my video yesterday, noted if it rains in the Kanto Plain on Halloween all the anime gurus will be really sad.

[StormingB81]

Rob you see the ECMWF wants to bring the storm right over Okinawa. I think we will be glued to the updated all week on this storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well, here are my thoughts on 16W now, also some stuff on GIRI, and MEGI. But mainly "Katring", still got Okinawa in the cone. It may get wet for you guys. (meteorologically speaking)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rm51Xl4UKk[/youtube]

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif


Getting closer and closer to Okinawa...Gonna be fun next weekend either or..1) "Fun" with a storm or 2) Fun with Halloween...lol

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think it will be past you by next weekend, pretty sure of that.