ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

174..UPPER TEXAS COAST



That makes the Nam, Gfs, and Canadian move north to Texas..just something to watch

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Just dont see that happening. GFS has something different EVERY run.

[South Texas Storms]

ivan is the trend now further north on the models?

[Ivanhater]

ivan is the trend now further north on the models?

Some, not all. Consensus is still Mexico

[ronjon]

ivan is the trend now further north on the models?

Well we have 3 as IH mentioned now moving toward the Tx coast. I suspect the 18Z GFDL may shift northward too since its run off the GFS grid.

[Ivanhater]

180

[ROCK]

That GFS run will not turn the models...again it over doing the trof......

[KWT]

ivan is the trend now further north on the models?

Well we have 3 as IH mentioned now moving toward the Tx coast. I suspect the 18Z GFDL may shift northward too since its run off the GFS grid.

The three that have shifted are the three that nearly always are too quick to break down upper high features, if the eCM shifted northwards it'd get my attention but given the last 36hrs of motion, I see no reason why the GFS should verifiy to be honest, I know the last 36hts isn't always the important thing but its barely shifted from its 280 track despite what the models were calling for...

[perk]

ivan is the trend now further north on the models?

Well we have 3 as IH mentioned now moving toward the Tx coast. I suspect the 18Z GFDL may shift northward too since its run off the GFS grid.

Other than the GFS what other two are moving toward Texas.

[ROCK]

I agree...if the EURO shifts tonight....dam, I might have to stay up tonight....crap...

[ROCK]

ivan is the trend now further north on the models?

Well we have 3 as IH mentioned now moving toward the Tx coast. I suspect the 18Z GFDL may shift northward too since its run off the GFS grid.

Other than the GFS what other two are moving toward Texas.

the almighty NAM....

[Ivanhater]

the almighty NAM....

And Canadian, which remember was the best model in the 3 to 5 day range last year

[South Texas Storms]

ivan you think texas is not out of the woods yet?

[KWT]

Actually ECM was the best last year, I heard it actually beat the NHC last year at some ranges!

I think unless we see major signs of the system lifting out the three that are further north are out to lunch..of course it all needs watching still...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Actually ECM was the best last year, I heard it actually beat the NHC last year at some ranges!

I think unless we see major signs of the system lifting out the three that are further north are out to lunch..of course it all needs watching still...

EURO was the best!!

[ROCK]

the almighty NAM....

And Canadian, which remember was the best model in the 3 to 5 day range last year

yeah yeah....see you at 1:30 am ....

[hcane27]

I know that there tends to be a "love fest" for the ECMWF ... but the UKM has had Mexico pegged since the run of 6/21 12z .... the ECMWF on the other hand did not "see" the Mexico solution until the 6/23 12z run ..... and actually picked Texas as late as the 6/24 12z run .... just thought I would this out there for discussion

[xironman]

Within 96 hours the GFS is not nearly as wretched as it is in the longer range. If it and the CGEM hold serve for the 0z then it could be interesting.

[Rainband]

Great news, the GOM is already a mess with the oil .....We don't need a storm in the mix..no pun intended..

[ROCK]

Actually ECM was the best last year, I heard it actually beat the NHC last year at some ranges!

I think unless we see major signs of the system lifting out the three that are further north are out to lunch..of course it all needs watching still...

EURO was the best!!

the EURO did sniff out IKE before any other model in 08......but it failed bad with Charley in 04...

pretty sure its been tweaked since then...