ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Vortmax1]

The cloud swirl appears to be at different heights. The N clouds are a higher altitude and S look to at lower level. There may be a weak MLC bit no LLC.

Right!
It's not totally at the surface level...yet.

[KWT]

Actually I do see a LLC now after close studying, its a tiny bit SW of Ivanhaters circle and its very small indeed so likely quite weak, but you can see the whole swirl once you focus in on the lower levels turning.

[x-y-no]

x-y-no....

You are correct! Forgot about that!

Just don't think it's the right setup now for a major. Could be totally wrong.

No, I think you're right. I have a hard time seeing this as more than a moderate TS into SFL. Development in the Gulf could be considerable, but Katrina did that dip SW and trekked across the whole loop current - this one will more likely keep on a WNW to NW track.

[HURAKAN]

ULL stronger than ever

[Weatherfreak000]

That ULL is certainly a bad omen.

[blp]

I think it stays at 60%.

...

Just for fun, I went back and looked at some of the discussion of the disturbance which eventually became Katrina.

It didn't look too great in this location either:

http://www.keysplants.com/wv_dia.gif

But note, even at that time the global models were quite hot on developing it in the Gulf ... so the parallel is actually not that good.

Thanks for showing that graphic.

...edited by wxman57 to remove IMG tags

[hookemfins]

Actually I do see a LLC now after close studying, its a tiny bit SW of Ivanhaters circle and its very small indeed so likely quite weak, but you can see the whole swirl once you focus in on the lower levels turning.

I see what you are seeing but it still looks to be in the mid levels. The low level clouds are moving towards the NE.

[Florida1118]

Wow...This is supposed to slide west and conditions are going to be more favorable?

[Vortmax1]

Nice 200mb presentation of that TUTT low Hurakan!

[HURAKAN]

Actually I do see a LLC now after close studying, its a tiny bit SW of Ivanhaters circle and its very small indeed so likely quite weak, but you can see the whole swirl once you focus in on the lower levels turning.

I see what you are seeing but it still looks to be in the mid levels. The low level clouds are moving towards the NE.

If the clouds are moving TOWARDS the NE, then they're coming from the SW.

[Bocadude85]

Nice 200mb presentation of that TUTT low Hurakan!

Yes its supposed to slide west faster then 97L... I guess we will just have to wait and see how it plays out

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think it stays at 60%.

...

Just for fun, I went back and looked at some of the discussion of the disturbance which eventually became Katrina.

It didn't look too great in this location either:


But note, even at that time the global models were quite hot on developing it in the Gulf ... so the parallel is actually not that good.

Thanks for showing that graphic.

\
i believe katrina was much further west and north when it developed. Between the Bahamas and FL

[KWT]

ULL tend to be really poorly modelled by the jmodels, I can't remember the amount of times they've busted...

Looks like this ULL though is a long term issue this season...

[tolakram]

Speed this loop up and observe what many of us are identifying as a weak LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

It's there, and looks to be low level, though not very big. Slowly but surely the inflow is getting established.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the IR is the convection in the NW Caribbean enhancing 97L?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[fci]

For the Joe B fans, he put out a free video today (see link below). He's not worried about anything beyond South Florida but thinks the leftover moisture (south of Hispanola) and the next wave coming through could spell trouble for the Gulf next week (168ish hours).

http://www.accuweather.com/video/731462 ... e-gulf.asp

I'm not a JB fan, at least not over any other Pro Met; but thank you for posting the link; a very good analysis was presented.

[x-y-no]

i believe katrina was much further west and north when it developed. Between the Bahamas and FL

When she got named, yes. But TD 12 formed near Long Cay in the SE Bahamas, if I recall correctly.

[StormClouds63]

That ULL is certainly a bad omen.

A tropical depression may be the most which can be expected out of this system unless the upper air patterns change. As long as the ULL continues moving west and produces shear, little chance of any significant or rapid intensification.

[tolakram]

[BigA]

From what I can tell, the reason that the models forecast a reduction in shear is not due to a forecast weakening of the ULL, but that the ULL is forecast to skedaddle westward faster than 97L. Each of the 4 models that I've seen shows this (CMC, WRF, NOGAPS,GFS). But someone mentioned that the models often poorly forecast ULLs