ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

The last 6 hour motion has been 260 at 11.1 mph. not slowing down much yet..

[x-y-no]

I said:

If the GFS is even close to right in building the mid-level ridge over Florida/Cuba/Haiti

Of course such a track is possible if the setup is different.

[SoupBone]

Early in Ike's career, as it were, models recurved him.

Again as someone pointed out already there was no forecasted trough for Ike. It's really comparing satsumas to oranges...

[CJPILOT]

Amazing looking storm.

[TheBurn]

[Aric Dunn]

Early in Ike's career, as it were, models recurved him.

Again as someone pointed out already there was no forecasted trough for Ike. It's really comparing satsumas to oranges...

well here is the models throughout IKE's life... there was never a complete recurve but at first they did have IKE moving WNW and NW.... then all of a sudden they shifted after IKE missed the weakness. I do remember it was a terrible storm to forecast.. just never did what it was supposed to

it can not be ruled out that Igor misses this present weakness. there have been some guidance showing this so until it start turning we need to watch it.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 8&title=09

[tolakram]

Ride the Ike snake: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

the NHC has been extremely good at forecasting the path for quite a number of years now. Where it gets tricky is when there isn't a lot of room to maneuver, like in the Gulf, where a 100 mile error can make a big difference.

edit: In this case, of course, the Islanders need to keep a close watch and hope Igor starts the turn soon! These darn I storms.

[TheBurn]

Igor and Julia

[x-y-no]

The situation now with Igor is rather different - we're not talking about a forecast turn four or five days down the line - we're talking about a turn beginning today.

Now there's one phenomenon I've seen a number of times before which may be coming into play. Subsidence from a strong storm will tend to sustain or even build a ridge to the north. While the models certainly account for that, they may be underestimating the effect since Igor is actually a lot stronger than he's being initialized.

But this effect (if it's happening) isn't going to completely overcome the influence of the big weakness ahead. So unless the globals are completely blowing the evolution of the ridging over Florida/Greater Antilles, I don't see any way this impacts anything bu Bermuda (although I'm leaning towards a pass west of Bermuda, probably close enough to give them hurricane force winds.)

(As always, this is my semi-educated opinion and analysis, not in any way an official forecast.)

[brunota2003]

Didn't I say something yesterday about not leaning solely on the models? And what do I wake up to this afternoon, but a storm doing something opposite of the models (for now). Sure, it'll probably turn, but the models are again showing their right of track bias. Just like Earl.

[dixiebreeze]

Hope our islanders are prepared for any possibility:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-rb.html

[Aric Dunn]

All the models in the 12z runs so far have the initial motion at WNW ... lol

[dixiebreeze]

Shouldn't Igor be making his turn right about NOW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

And when will Recon fly Igor?

[brunota2003]

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE
IGOR AT 16/1800Z NEAR 23.5N 58.5W.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanx brunota

[CrazyC83]

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE
IGOR AT 16/1800Z NEAR 23.5N 58.5W.

That might need to be pushed up, since Igor is likely to be at that longitude within 48 hours, not 72, at this rate, and a much greater island threat. IMO, if current trends continue, I would send out a Gulfstream plane tonight and Recon tomorrow afternoon if Igor has not gained latitude yet.

[brunota2003]

I just looked and saw that So I opened up a Recon topic.

[dixiebreeze]

Agree with that Crazy.

[cpdaman]

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE
IGOR AT 16/1800Z NEAR 23.5N 58.5W.

That might need to be pushed up, since Igor is likely to be at that longitude within 48 hours, not 72, at this rate, and a much greater island threat. IMO, if current trends continue, I would send out a Gulfstream plane tonight and Recon tomorrow afternoon if Igor has not gained latitude yet.

in your mind what are you thinking for the islands as far as possible winds (UNOFFICIALLY)

[expat2carib]

Ride the Ike snake: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

the NHC has been extremely good at forecasting the path for quite a number of years now. Where it gets tricky is when there isn't a lot of room to maneuver, like in the Gulf, where a 100 mile error can make a big difference.

edit: In this case, of course, the Islanders need to keep a close watch and hope Igor starts the turn soon! These darn I storms.

OK they have been great. But don't ignore the "Earl factor" for not so long ago. NHC projection of Earl didn't suppose to shave the northern Leewards until very late where the cone changed.