ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Kyuuubi]

TS warnings for SFL are canceled.

Yup..... looks like other than rain, a relative non-event unless things change significantly

[canes04]

I wish recon would fly south of Cuba, still think there is something going on there.

[tolakram]

Man,

I do not like to criticize the NHC but this looks like a bad upgrade to me. Upgrading a sloppy system while the center is over land. One for the books, increase that count. Yea, you won't find me saying that very often.

[invest man]

Extratropical system forming off the fl coast later today. How will this effect enc, already getting massive rainfall, last thing we need are 40+ winds! IM

[HURAKAN]

Man,

I do not like to criticize the NHC but this looks like a bad upgrade to me. Upgrading a sloppy system while the center is over land. One for the books, increase that count. Yea, you won't find me saying that very often.

ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

You need more? Enough for me.

[Sanibel]

996 = TS

[Hurricanehink]

I wish recon would fly south of Cuba, still think there is something going on there.

I've been thinking that since last night. It really looks like something is going on near the Caymans. I think someone mentioned earlier that the "Nicole" low has a trough going southward to the western Caribbean. If that were to become the dominant system, would that be Otto? I can't imagine they would consider Nicole reforming that far south.

[TheEuropean]

996 = TS

Why that?

[artist]

ok, so they cancel the tropical storm warnings yet they upgrade to Tropical Storm Nicole? There is something wrong with this picture. Am I right?

[petit_bois]

I wish recon would fly south of Cuba, still think there is something going on there.

I've been thinking that since last night. It really looks like something is going on near the Caymans. I think someone mentioned earlier that the "Nicole" low has a trough going southward to the western Caribbean. If that were to become the dominant system, would that be Otto? I can't imagine they would consider Nicole reforming that far south.

There are bouys and surface obs scattered over the entire area...

[Evil Jeremy]

ok, so they cancel the tropical storm warnings yet they upgrade to Tropical Storm Nicole? There is something wrong with this picture. Am I right?

Its because Nicole is forecast to past to the east of us, and all the winds are on her east side.

[HURAKAN]

ok, so they cancel the tropical storm warnings yet they upgrade to Tropical Storm Nicole? There is something wrong with this picture. Am I right?

Everything is to the east of the center. Track shifted a little to the east, therefore, all the wind should stay east of Florida.

[petit_bois]

996 = TS

nope... >39 mph sustained winds = TS

and the weird part was thaey had to go well over 200 miles south of the center to find those...
most of the readings within 60 miles of the center we 5-10 knots.

[cycloneye]

Man,

I do not like to criticize the NHC but this looks like a bad upgrade to me. Upgrading a sloppy system while the center is over land. One for the books, increase that count. Yea, you won't find me saying that very often.

Email them. nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov

[Bear]

Like I said earlier....IMO....non-event..... A little rain and minor street flooding that any seasoned S. Floridian can handle....Next!

[BobHarlem]

996 = TS

nope... >39 mph sustained winds = TS

and the weird part was thaey had to go well over 200 miles south of the center to find those...
most of the readings within 60 miles of the center we 5-10 knots.

Last time I looked up tropical systems with wind fields greater away from the center were subtropical. Either it is Tropical, warm core, with convection wrapping around the center, strongest winds near the center or they're not. This area is such a mess I don't know what to call it.

[HenkL]

Some peak winds at 15Z:

Holguin (eastern Cuba): 34 kt
Guantanamo Bay (eastern Cuba): 26 kt
Nassau Airport (Bahamas): 41 kt
George Town (Bahamas): 27 kt
ship at 16°48'N 81°30'W: 35 kt

[jhpigott]

They drop the TS warnings for SE FL and this thread goes quiet??

[sandyb]

Like I said earlier....IMO....non-event..... A little rain and minor street flooding that any seasoned S. Floridian can handle....Next!

just becasue Florida is not gonna get any major weather dont mean its all over forget it not important...come up to NC we have had over 8 inches of rain with 4-10 more to come its pooring outside right now blowing sideways at that we could have some major flooding and trees down up here but oh its ok cause it is not happening to Florida! Why do most of yall think when it dont involve your state it is a non event

[Canelaw99]

Like I said earlier....IMO....non-event..... A little rain and minor street flooding that any seasoned S. Floridian can handle....Next!

just becasue Florida is not gonna get any major weather dont mean its all over forget it not important...come up to NC we have had over 8 inches of rain with 4-10 more to come its pooring outside right now blowing sideways at that we could have some major flooding and trees down up here but oh its ok cause it is not happening to Florida! Why do most of yall think when it dont involve your state it is a non event

I don't think that was implied in Bear's post at all. Most of us are much more concerned when something is directly affecting us, it's human nature. Just posing a question for you to think about, not trying to start anything, but if this was forecast to avoid NC completely, would you be so upset? Probably not. All of us can be sympathetic for what others might face/might be going through, but there's no need to get fiesty over a simple post. For us Floridians, flooding events can occur with very little rain due to our low height above sea level, so it's nice when something that was forecast doesn't materialize, and you can't fault some of us for verbalizing that.


Back on topic: down here in S Dade, it's been raining a ton, but we've had several breaks so I don't think we're getting the extreme flooding (so far) that we could've. I'm hoping the tornado threat doesn't materialize, but am glad that most of this is not coming this way, at least at the moment