ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Go on this link to have a better idea of the damages (impressive) who have occured in St Lucia
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

[b]- Tomas
By Mike Davis <mdavisslu2010 at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 16:34:04 +0000

Reports of widespread destruction in St. Lucia are starting to come through this morning. I didn't experience the storm first hand since I am out of St. Lucia at present but some friends have sent be some pictures of the many bridges which have collapsed totally crashing the island's road network and other pictures of damage done. Reports indicate that flooding was very severe and wind damage is also significant especially in the south of the island. The Hewanorra International Airport reported sustained winds of at least 92mph with much higher gusts at 5:30pm yesterday afternoon as the eyewall passed through and then the second half of the hurricane unleashed a massive deluge on St. Lucia not experienced on St. Lucian soil in recent memory. Heavy and torrentail rain accompanied by hurricane force wind gusts continued ceaselessly for about 10 hours from about 5pm yesterday on top of the moderate and occasionally heavy rain from the preceding 12 hours resulting in the major flooding experienced. Many roofs have been blown off, schools, hospitals, churches and homes have been damaged and some destroyed. Lots of trees down. Islandwide power outage. Powerlines, poles and transformers down in some areas. Unconfirmed reports of missing people and even loss of life.
The bridges at Bois d'Orange and Choc along the Castries/Gros Islet highway (shown below) have been destroyed. I was also told that the bridge at Marchand along the Castries river collapsed this morning and also numerous reports that the Sans Souci bridge in the city of Castries collapsed (unconfirmed).More info will be made available when it arrives.

Posted are pictures of the bridges at Bois d'Orange and Choc as well as other pictures from the districts of Castries and Gros Islet

Tomas VIEW SLIDE SHOW DOWNLOAD ALL
ADD MORE PHOTOS

This online album has 19 photos and will be available on SkyDrive until 01/29/2011.

When post season report is made,they may have to increase the winds a tad from the 80kts. Incredible photos.

[Aquawind]

Why dont they plant trees in haiti? Twc just mentioned 98 percent of haiti is deforested.

because the peeps will do what they did before, chop them down and use it for firewood, problems there are much larger than trees

Yep much bigger problem.. A number of related articles on the lower left.. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/sfl-ha ... orygallery

[snowcane180]

Who wouldve thought a cat 1 hurricane would cause that much damage? similar to when katrina made landfall in south florida.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

48kts at flight level-59kts at SFMR

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe (as Martinica) back to green code meaning no threat...

[andrewsurvivor]

Oh yes, even a cat 1 can be destructive, however, this is not comperable to our damage from Katrina. We had very minimal damage here in Florida and life was back to normal very quickly.

[cycloneye]

The lowest pressure at first pass from NW to SE is 990.5 mbs.

[RL3AO]

Who wouldve thought a cat 1 hurricane would cause that much damage? similar to when katrina made landfall in south florida.

A tropical wave can and has killed thousands in Haiti.

[dwsqos2]

I saw an eye drop with a 994 mb pressure and surface winds of 39 knots, not a shock as Tomas is vertically tilted.

Anyway, based on current modeling trends (even the CMC was weaker),
I am planting myself firmly in the no major hurricane camp.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[snowcane180]

Not trying to get of topic, but Wikipedia says katrina caused 1billion dollars in damage in south florida.

[hurricaneCW]

Tomas is getting ripped apart which is great news for Haiti, I don't think it will regain its strength, it's not vertically aligned and the shear is killing it. It will probably just give Haiti a few inches of rain.

I'm being extremely optimistic here as the NHC shows a much grimmer fate if it's correct with the track and intensity.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Edited by Ivanhater to include disclaimer

[cycloneye]

Those who were thinking Tomas is a Tropical Storm,you can stop thinking about that .They found a 30 mile wide diameter eye.Here is the decoded first VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Gustywind]

Those who were thinking Tomas is a Tropical Storm,you can stop thinking about that .They found a 30 mile wide diameter eye.Here is the decoded first VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR

Ahah Cycloneye always on top:lol:

[snowcane180]

I agree with hurricaneCw. this tropical storm is not going to get any stronger with that presentation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Edited by Ivanhater to include disclaimer

[Brent]

Those who were thinking Tomas is a Tropical Storm,you can stop thinking about that .They found a 30 mile wide diameter eye.Here is the decoded first VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR

The rest of that VDM says no hurricane.

I'm guessing 45-50 kts based on the poor satellite appearance.

[Ivanhater]

When making a forecast use the disclaimer.

[snowcane180]

Ophelia was a tropical storm at one point with that big I think 50 mile wide eye. Idk

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 21, 2010103118, , BEST, 0, 142N, 643W, 70, 992, HU


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still a hurricane on Best Track.

[dwsqos2]

An eye does not mean a hurricane; however, it is still possible to argue that Tomas is a hurricane based on the SFMR value of 64 knots. Yes, I know, much lower than flight-level-to-surface conversions would suggest, but I suspect part of the problem with that is the altitude (3000 m) as well as Tomas' current vertical tilt. A lower altitude would probably show a higher value flight-level winds/surface winds.