ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

No KWT,Cmc was the best within the 3 to 5 day range. The data is on the NHC page, I'd have to go digging for it.

Lol see you tonight Rock.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

No comparison in my opinion!!!!!!! EURO!

[ronjon]

Yes if the mightly Euro changes, it'll get everyones attention. I did notice that the 12Z ECM does have a stronger trough than its earlier versions for Wed and Thur next week. When forecasting 5 days out, models are bound to change. And KWT, I viewed a long loop of the VIS SAT and it appears that Alex is moving more NW.

[jlauderdal]

174..UPPER TEXAS COAST



That makes the Nam, Gfs, and Canadian move north to Texas..just something to watch

and those three have had a very poor depiction of the pattern so no reason to start buying them now, nice to look at i guess but until the euro stops verifying than go with it, system is heading 280 now and no reason to see much deviation from that for awhile.

[Ntxwx]

Among the models taking it into Texas are the GFS, NAM, and Canadian..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Creme of the crop there.

[ROCK]

Great news, the GOM is already a mess with the oil .....We don't need a storm in the mix..no pun intended..

yeah given the size right now Alex IF it did move more north it would put a halt to the relief wells.....just dont see it.....with just the GFS and NAM sniffing....

[Jagno]

I've learned to never say never when it deals with the tropics. I lost my home in a system that was with all certainty by many, Mexico/S. Texas bound. Just something to think about folks.

[Ivanhater]

Couple of things:

- Remember that the BAMs (and CLIPER**) are initialized from the NHC's best track, for 18Z that was 15.5 N 74.4W.

- Ivanhater is correct in pointing out the CMC was the best in the 96 and 120 hour time periods last year; as the say, you can look it up (on page 29 of the pdf). One would note two things though: It does look kind of funny that its 96 hour performance was better than its 72 hour. Also that comparision is for tropical cyclones; it does not cover the developmental stages.

** Only mentioned because it's on the SFWMD graphic.

bump for the canadian analysis

[Ntxwx]

Heck I was always "sniffing" the Tex/Mex border landfall. Im not to sure further north than that, but intresting to see more models trending north, perfect models or not...

[KWT]

UKMO is actually not a bad model at all in high pressure set-ups, it handles upper highs *very well* perhaps even better than the ECM at times, esp subtropical highs...but overall the ECM is the stronger of the two.

The UKMO tends to underdo troughiness, the GFS tends to overdo it, the ECM flips between the two but with less degree of error than the other two.

[Ivanhater]

Sorry to burst the Euro love bubble lol but the facts are facts. Canadian takes the gold last year in the 3 to 5 day range as shown in the link above

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I still dont trust it in the short, medium or long range!!!!!!!

[Ntxwx]

Sorry to burst the Euro love bubble lol but the facts are facts. Canadian takes the gold last year in the 3 to 5 day range as shown in the link above

Canadian takes this thing straight into Texas as well... Hmm Im onboard!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can someone give me a link to the Canaidian?

[KWT]

Couple of things:

- Remember that the BAMs (and CLIPER**) are initialized from the NHC's best track, for 18Z that was 15.5 N 74.4W.

- Ivanhater is correct in pointing out the CMC was the best in the 96 and 120 hour time periods last year; as the say, you can look it up (on page 29 of the pdf). One would note two things though: It does look kind of funny that its 96 hour performance was better than its 72 hour. Also that comparision is for tropical cyclones; it does not cover the developmental stages.

** Only mentioned because it's on the SFWMD graphic.

bump for the canadian analysis

Big thing to note though, the ECM is *not* on that analysis, if it was it would beat the CMC from what I've heard from people...

The CMC is actually not bad in certain solutions, the reason why it did so well was because it was a very troughy year last year, and models like the CMC tend to thrive in very progressive set-ups, it'll probably suffer if this year is a ridgy year.

ps, the CMC is horrid for development...but is an ok model for track if you know that it does have a bias for overdoing troughs like the GFS, thus you learn what situations you can trust it and when you can't, and I believe this is a situation where you can't...

[Ntxwx]

Can someone give me a link to the Canaidian?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

Browse em all

[Ivanhater]

I still dont trust it in the short, medium or long range!!!!!!!

I guess you have the right to that, but the fact that the Canadian beat the euro in the 3 to 5 day range last year remains

[JTD]

Let's hope that the more notherly models don't verify and that this northern trend in some models stops. It is not needed at all.

Until the Euro jumps on the northern bandwagon, I think it is premature to speculate that the current NHC track won't hold.

The effects that this will have if it does shut down/slow down the Deepwater Horizon relief efforts are broad, deep and devastating economically, environmentally, socially and mentally.

Not to mention that if the GFS were to verify and this hit the upper TX coast, that is a heavily populated area and the potential for storms to rapidly intensify in that area is grave.

CNN has an article on their website that the relief efforts will stop for 2 weeks if Alex manages to affect the area.

We need the current NHC track to verify for numerous reasons.

[Dean4Storms]

We don't need to rule out the northern turn solutions just yet, the ECMWF has been wrong before.