ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[hurricaneCW]

288H SFL nearly again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

south florida should have been destroyed years ago based on the model runs that have us getting hit, year after year after year, one of these times but until then happy hurricane hunting, the generator continues to collect dust

I agree. I do not think we will see much from Matt here in South Florida

Your right, you'll see it from Nicole.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I hope your generator keeps collecting dust there Jlauderdal. But in the mean we all in South Fla should keep tabs on Matty.

[Aquawind]

Here Here to dusty generators.. However people don't forget to start them up once in awhile to keep them in working order..

[lonelymike]

"Trash this GFS run"

Trash the whole model period as of late. Still having the same convective feedback issues it always does. 18Z run is always for entertainment purposes only most of the time.

[paintplaye]

"Trash this GFS run"

Trash the whole model period as of late. Still having the same convective feedback issues it always does. 18Z run is always for entertainment purposes only most of the time.

Just because the 18z and 6z doesn't get new data doesn't mean their runs are for entertainment purposes only.

[southerngale]

Update on some of the latest "consensus"

[Aquawind]

It's amazing..the split..

[Macrocane]

Just because the 18z and 6z doesn't get new data doesn't mean their runs are for entertainment purposes only.

But if you look at the 18z every day they always show something very different from the other runs so IMO it should not been taken as serously as the other ones. Besides the important thing is the model consensus if the 18z GFS is in agreement with other models then take it into account, the problem this time is that there is no model consensus :S

[plasticup]

Update on some of the latest "consensus"



http://i51.tinypic.com/10p7f38.gif

HWRF seems to have missed the initial motion and NOGAPS is adorable but... you know... So disregarding those two, there does appear to be a consensus. It's not the dramatic solution that everyone looks for I'm gaining confidence in it.

[jlauderdal]

I hope your generator keeps collecting dust there Jlauderdal. But in the mean we all in South Fla should keep tabs on Matty.

yep, one of these times we are going to get spanked by something much more intense then wilma

[jlauderdal]

Here Here to dusty generators.. However people don't forget to start them up once in awhile to keep them in working order..

once a month, think i will start it up on sunday just to remind the neighbors

[SouthFLTropics]

I hope your generator keeps collecting dust there Jlauderdal. But in the mean we all in South Fla should keep tabs on Matty.

yep, one of these times we are going to get spanked by something much more intense then wilma

You got that right...and I've got a feeling that October is going to be a VERY long month this year...We could get that spanking before it is all said and done...

SFT

[Vortex]

Here Here to dusty generators.. However people don't forget to start them up once in awhile to keep them in working order..

once a month, think i will start it up on sunday just to remind the neighbors

the restless natives will love you

[Vortex]

!8Z HWRF clips honduras, turns noth just east of the yucatan and heads NE towards western cuba....SFL better hope its a bad run and doesnt stick....



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[sfwx]

Day 7 from HPC:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

[jlauderdal]

Here Here to dusty generators.. However people don't forget to start them up once in awhile to keep them in working order..

once a month, think i will start it up on sunday just to remind the neighbors

the restless natives will love you

if something looks like it could get up this way i will clank a few hurricane panels in the garage and rev the drill a few times

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL some loop action and I think we've almost covered every possible solution



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

!8Z HWRF clips honduras, turns noth just east of the yucatan and heads NE towards western cuba....SFL better hope its a bad run and doesnt stick....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Nothing more than a weak TS, HWRF is usually known for over doing systems so maybe the upper level conditions are not ideal?

[Macrocane]

Nothing more than a weak TS, HWRF is usually known for over doing systems so maybe the upper level conditions are not ideal?

This season has been the oppsite, the HWRF has been UNDERdoing the systems it always weakened Danielle, Earl, Igor and Karl even when the other models showed strengthening and the other models were right at the end.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 240033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW (AL152010) 20100924 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100924  0000   100924  1200   100925  0000   100925  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.1N  77.7W   14.8N  79.9W   15.6N  82.2W   16.4N  84.8W
BAMD    14.1N  77.7W   14.6N  80.2W   15.1N  82.7W   15.7N  85.0W
BAMM    14.1N  77.7W   14.8N  80.3W   15.5N  82.9W   16.2N  85.6W
LBAR    14.1N  77.7W   14.7N  80.9W   15.5N  84.1W   16.2N  87.4W
SHIP        40KTS          51KTS          62KTS          73KTS
DSHP        40KTS          51KTS          62KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100926  0000   100927  0000   100928  0000   100929  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.4N  87.2W   19.4N  91.0W   19.6N  93.0W   17.6N  93.8W
BAMD    16.7N  87.0W   18.9N  89.6W   20.5N  91.1W   20.2N  92.6W
BAMM    17.3N  88.0W   19.5N  90.9W   20.0N  92.3W   17.9N  93.0W
LBAR    17.1N  90.1W   20.3N  93.6W   23.6N  93.4W   25.0N  91.8W
SHIP        84KTS         100KTS         106KTS         104KTS
DSHP        65KTS          63KTS          33KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.1N LONCUR =  77.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  13.6N LONM12 =  74.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  13.1N LONM24 =  72.0W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  40NM